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XGXGN

Exagen Inc.

$XGN·$108M·Medical - Diagnostics & Research·Healthcare
$4.25-1.2%YTD-30.6%1Y-39.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 2 posts2026-07-11: 1 posts2026-07-12: 3 posts2026-07-13: 3 posts2026-07-14: 1 posts2026-07-15: 1 posts2026-07-16: 8 posts19-5%
Price updated 11h ago·X counts updated 10h ago
XGXGN
$XGNExagen Inc.
$4.25-1.16%19 posts-5%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $XGN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Lupus-diagnostics micro-cap: Q1 revenue beat, real-world data published, but the tape is down 39% t12m.

Exagen commercializes autoimmune diagnostic tests under the AVISE brand using proprietary cell-bound complement activation products (CB-CAPs) technology, primarily for lupus.

  • Q1 2026 was reported May 11 with a revenue beat despite a per-share loss — the topline is holding up even as the P&L stays negative (PE -5).
  • Clinical support: on June 1 the company announced publication of a systematic review confirming real-world performance of AVISE Lupus — evidence-base strengthening, which helps payer/physician adoption.
  • Governance: annual meeting June 9 elected two Class I directors (Tina Nova, Scott Kahn) with material voting support.
  • Sell-side: Zacks (May 28) flagged Wall Street analyst upside targets implying 73% return — a wide gap between price and consensus.
  • Valuation: PE -5, P/S 1.5 — reasonable-to-cheap for a growth-diagnostics business, reflecting the profitability question.
  • Price: $4.25, YTD -31% and twelve-month -39% — the drawdown is real; today's session was -1.2%.

Close: The coil is around the Q2 print and any evidence that Q1's revenue beat is repeatable. What breaks it lower: another quarter of persistent losses without accelerating adoption of AVISE Lupus.

What to watch: Q2 2026 earnings (date TBD) for AVISE test-volume growth and gross-margin trajectory; any specific payer-coverage wins for AVISE Lupus following the real-world data publication.

On the calendar: Q2 2026 earnings (date TBD)

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops and sells AVISE diagnostic tests used by rheumatologists to diagnose and monitor lupus and related autoimmune diseases.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Medical - Diagnostics & Research sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $XGN.

Medical - Diagnostics & Research · Healthcare

No material change from last week — pharma R&D spending is recovering and CDMO demand is growing as drug pipelines advance toward clinical trials.

What this means for $XGN

Direct beneficiary — Develops and sells AVISE diagnostic tests used by rheumatologists to diagnose and monitor lupus and related autoimmune diseases; the business model is a direct conduit for the pharma R&D recovery and CDMO outsourcing demand expansion.

Industry benchmark

13-name peer basket
+38.6%YTD
+67.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-33.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-20.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-13.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-114%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
58.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 11, 2026$-0.17$-0.24+29.2%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$-0.20$-0.200.0%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$-0.19$-0.13-46.2%
Q2 2025Jul 29, 2025$-0.18$-0.180.0%
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $-0.19

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$17.3M+11.7%59.0%-19.7%$-0.17$-10.6M
Q4 FY25$16.6M+21.8%55.4%-29.9%$-0.21$-3.1M
Q3 FY25$17.2M+37.9%58.4%-18.0%$-0.31$2.7M
Q2 FY25$17.2M+14.2%60.4%-15.3%$-0.21$-3.1M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$71.6M$71.5M – $72.0M-$0.69-$0.74 – -$0.666
FY27$79.4M$78.5M – $80.3M-$0.51-$0.59 – -$0.476
FY28$89.4M$89.0M – $89.8M-$0.38-$0.39 – -$0.382
FY29$101.3M$100.3M – $102.5M-$0.15-$0.15 – -$0.151
FY30$105.9M$104.9M – $107.2M-$0.15-$0.15 – -$0.151

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.17%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-0.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-24.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

β2.025-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMar 3John AballiCEO15.7K sh$57KSellFeb 24Jeffrey G. BlackCFO1.6K sh$6KSellFeb 24John AballiCEO11.4K sh$41K
+ 7 other (7 awards) in window

See when $XGN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteJun 98-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Exagen Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026. Stockholders elected two Class I directors — Tina S. Nova, Ph.D. (8.09M votes for) and Scott Kahn, Ph.D. (6.30M votes for) — for three-year terms, ratified BDO USA, P.C. as auditor, and approved executive compensation on an advisory basis. Routine governance for a small-cap diagnostics company; the lower vote count for Scott Kahn (~78% vs ~97% for Nova) may reflect shareholder dissatisfaction.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 238-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

XGN disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-23). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsApr 213/A
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3/A (amended) for XGN on 2026-04-21, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 163
+ 13 other (5 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Exagen Announces Publication of Systematic Review Confirming Robust Real-World Performance of AVISE Lupusglobenewswire.com·46d agoHow Much Upside is Left in Exagen (XGN)? Wall Street Analysts Think 73.05%zacks.com·50d agoExagen Inc. (XGN) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·66d agoExagen Q1 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·67d agoExagen Inc. (XGN) Reports Q1 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimateszacks.com·67d ago

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