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XGXGN

Exagen Inc.

$XGN·$109M·Medical - Diagnostics & Research·Healthcare
$7.39-1.7%YTD+5.4%1Y-24.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-19: 3 posts2026-08-20: 5 posts2026-08-21: 8 posts2026-08-22: 2 posts2026-08-23: 2 posts22+11%
Price updated 11h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
XGXGN
$XGNExagen Inc.
$7.39-1.73%22 posts+11%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $XGN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-28

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Autoimmune diagnostics narrowing losses on 12-38% revenue growth, but still burning cash into 2029 on consensus.

Exagen is down about 21% over twelve months but has rallied hard recently — 38% above its 50-day moving average. The operating trend supports some of that: revenue grew 14%, 38%, 22% and 12% year over year across the last four quarters, the Q2 loss of $0.13 beat a -$0.19 estimate by 32%, and the two quarters before that also beat. Gross margin near 58% is respectable for a specialty diagnostics lab.

The business is genuinely differentiated. AVISE CTD and the cell-bound complement activation product technology address a real clinical problem — distinguishing lupus and connective tissue diseases from conditions with overlapping symptoms, where generic autoantibody panels perform poorly. A rheumatologist endorsement circulating in the chatter is exactly the adoption signal that matters for a diagnostic.

What the enthusiasm has to reckon with is the loss curve. Consensus models EPS of -$0.69 in 2026, -$0.51 in 2027, -$0.38 in 2028 and -$0.15 in 2029 — four more years of losses before approaching breakeven. Free cash flow was -$10.6 million in the latest quarter against a $109 million market cap. That gap has to be financed, and a 13.8 million share float means any raise moves the stock hard.

X sentiment is described as euphorically bullish, leaning on a 2.5x sales multiple against diagnostics comps at 10x. Comparable multiples are only comparable if the comps are profitable.

Differs from X sentimentX is euphoric on a sales-multiple discount to diagnostics comps. The discount exists because consensus models losses through 2029 and cash burn against a $109M market cap — the chatter engages the multiple, not the funding requirement.

What to watch: Cash runway against roughly $10M quarterly burn, and any equity raise. The Myositis testing launch and biopharma revenue growth are the adoption tells. November 3 earnings against a -$0.19 estimate.

On the calendar: Q3 earnings, 2026-11-03

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-28

Exagen posts are bullish following the diagnostics sector rotation and the rheumatologist expert-transcript confirmation of the AVISE bull thesis. Bulls cite XGN at sub-2.5x revs vs sector 9-10x and $8 double for common holders on the Jasper Ridley collaboration. Skeptics essentially absent.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $XGN

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops and sells AVISE diagnostic tests used by rheumatologists to diagnose and monitor lupus and related autoimmune diseases.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Medical - Diagnostics & Research sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $XGN.

Medical - Diagnostics & Research · Healthcare

No material change from last week — pharma R&D spending is recovering and CDMO demand is growing as drug pipelines advance toward clinical trials.

What this means for $XGN

Neutral — Develops and sells AVISE diagnostic tests used by rheumatologists to diagnose and monitor lupus and related autoimmune diseases; limited read-through from medical - diagnostics & research macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Industry benchmark

21-name peer basket
+37.0%YTD
+83.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-33.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-20.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-13.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-114%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
58.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 4, 2026$-0.13$-0.19+32.1%
Q1 2026May 11, 2026$-0.17$-0.24+29.2%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$-0.20$-0.200.0%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$-0.31$-0.16-97.6%
Next earningsTue, Nov 3·consensus EPS $-0.19

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$17.3M+11.7%59.0%-19.7%$-0.17$-10.6M
Q4 FY25$16.6M+21.8%55.4%-29.9%$-0.21$-3.1M
Q3 FY25$17.2M+37.9%58.4%-18.0%$-0.31$2.7M
Q2 FY25$17.2M+14.2%60.4%-15.3%$-0.21$-3.1M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$71.6M$71.4M – $71.9M-$0.69-$0.73 – -$0.655
FY27$79.4M$78.5M – $80.3M-$0.51-$0.57 – -$0.455
FY28$89.4M$88.0M – $92.1M-$0.38-$0.42 – -$0.343
FY29$101.3M$100.1M – $102.9M-$0.15-$0.15 – -$0.152
FY30$105.9M$104.7M – $107.7M-$0.15-$0.15 – -$0.151

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.50%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+34.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+53.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 13.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.035-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMar 3John AballiCEO15.7K sh$57K
+ 9 other (9 awards) in window

See when $XGN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteJun 98-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Exagen Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026. Stockholders elected two Class I directors — Tina S. Nova, Ph.D. (8.09M votes for) and Scott Kahn, Ph.D. (6.30M votes for) — for three-year terms, ratified BDO USA, P.C. as auditor, and approved executive compensation on an advisory basis. Routine governance for a small-cap diagnostics company; the lower vote count for Scott Kahn (~78% vs ~97% for Nova) may reflect shareholder dissatisfaction.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 238-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

XGN disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-23). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsApr 213/A
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3/A (amended) for XGN on 2026-04-21, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 163
+ 12 other (3 earnings 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 13Gs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) Given Average Rating of “Moderate Buy” by Brokeragesdefenseworld.net·2d agoReviewing Amplifon (OTCMKTS:AMFPF) & Exagen (NASDAQ:XGN)defenseworld.net·5d agoExagen Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·25d agoExagen Inc. (XGN) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·25d agoExagen Inc. (XGN) Reports Q2 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimateszacks.com·25d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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