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NTNTRA

Natera, Inc.

$NTRA·$38B·Medical - Diagnostics & Research·Healthcare
$275.19+1.8%YTD+20.2%1Y+101.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-28: 3 posts2026-07-29: 2 posts2026-07-30: 10 posts2026-07-31: 9 posts2026-08-01: 7 posts2026-08-02: 7 posts2026-08-03: 14 posts53+11%
Price updated 4h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
NTNTRA
$NTRANatera, Inc.
$275.19+1.79%53 posts+11%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $NTRA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-04

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Natera up 98% T12M on Signatera MRD JAMA validation but heavy CEO/CFO insider selling cluster into Aug 6 earnings — mixed setup.

Natera, Inc. is a molecular diagnostics leader whose flagship product Signatera is a personalized MRD (minimal residual disease) blood test used by oncologists to detect microscopic recurrence after cancer surgery. It's up 98% T12M with fresh JAMA Dermatology validation but a large July insider sale cluster.

  • The Jul 27-29 insider sale cluster is the specific overhang: CEO Chapman sold 3,580 at $254 (~$910K), CFO Brophy 4,282 at $250-254 (~$1.08M), plus Sheena and Moshkevich selling — coordinated distribution into strength, conviction-negative.
  • The Signatera JAMA Dermatology validation is the durable-thesis anchor: Signatera MRD outperformed AMERK in Merkel Cell Carcinoma recurrence — real clinical validation expanding Signatera into a new cancer type beyond colorectal.
  • Q1 was a step-change: revenue grew 39% YoY to $697M with 65% GM but -13% OM — real commercial ramp of Signatera and other diagnostics, though the negative OM shows sales-force and R&D spending is still severe.
  • Institutional accumulation is stacking: Beaconlight, Arrowstreet, and Fifth Third all added, though CalPERS reduced — net institutional bullish matching +98% T12M, offsetting the officer distribution.

Aug 6 is the tension breaker. Q2 with continued 30%+ growth plus Signatera commentary and any FY26 guidance raise restarts the compounding toward $320; a soft revenue commentary or further insider distribution and the setup pauses with $220 as support with the Jul 27-29 selling gaining airtime.

Agrees with X sentimentX sentiment is bullish on Signatera's JAMA validation and NTRA/TEM competitive positioning after Tempus's PSNL acquisition; our take agrees on the fundamentals and adds the Jul 27-29 insider sale cluster is the specific offset to weigh.

What to watch: Aug 6 Q2 print: watch for revenue growth (>+35% is the sustain bar), Signatera volume cadence, FY26 guidance revision, and any post-print insider follow-through — the signals that restart or seal the +98% T12M compounding.

On the calendar: 2026-08-06 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-27

Natera's Signatera MRD outperformed AMERK testing in predicting Merkel Cell Carcinoma recurrence per JAMA Dermatology study. Contributors highlight NTRA raising alongside GH while TEM lags, and a breakout retest would align with the 10-week MA. TEM's PSNL acquisition is framed as trying to compete with NTRA.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $NTRA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Molecular diagnostics leader in non-invasive prenatal testing (Panorama), oncology liquid biopsy (Signatera), and carrier screening.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Medical - Diagnostics & Research sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $NTRA.

Medical - Diagnostics & Research · Healthcare

No material change from last week — pharma R&D spending is recovering and CDMO demand is growing as drug pipelines advance toward clinical trials.

What this means for $NTRA

Neutral — Molecular diagnostics leader in non-invasive prenatal testing (Panorama), oncology liquid biopsy (Signatera), and carrier screening; limited read-through from medical - diagnostics & research macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Industry benchmark

21-name peer basket
+36.3%YTD
+85.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-144.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-11.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-13.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
13.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-15.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
65.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.56$-0.54-3.3%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$0.35$-0.51+168.4%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-0.64$-0.39-65.9%
Q2 2025Aug 7, 2025$-0.74$-0.62-20.2%
Next earningsThu, Aug 6·consensus EPS $-0.49

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$696.6M+38.8%64.8%-13.4%$-0.60$18.0M
Q4 FY25$665.5M+39.8%67.1%-3.4%$0.35$37.8M
Q3 FY25$592.2M+34.7%64.9%-16.5%$-0.64$24.5M
Q2 FY25$546.6M+32.2%63.5%-20.2%$-0.74$11.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 16 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.8B$2.8B – $2.8B-$1.62-$1.80 – -$1.5215
FY27$3.3B$3.2B – $3.4B-$0.30-$0.99 – $0.6015
FY28$4.0B$3.8B – $4.4B$1.52-$1.20 – $4.5716
FY29$4.7B$4.6B – $4.9B$2.43$2.31 – $2.5515
FY30$5.6B$5.4B – $5.8B$5.27$5.02 – $5.5315

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.89%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+9.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+22.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 136.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.505-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 29Brophy Michael BurkesCFO1.9K sh$465KSellJul 28John FeskoPresident931 sh$237KSellJul 28Chapman Steven LeonardCEO3.6K sh$910KSellJul 28Brophy Michael BurkesCFO2.4K sh$614KSellJul 28Solomon MoshkevichPresident1.2K sh$306KSellJul 28Jonathan SheenaCO-FOUNDER191 sh$49KSellJul 28Daniel RabinowitzSEC. AND CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER1.0K sh$255KSellJul 27Chapman Steven LeonardCEO2.2K sh$570KSellJul 27Brophy Michael BurkesCFO782 sh$204KSellJul 27John FeskoPresident782 sh$204K
1–10 of 30
+ 9 other (8 awards · 1 exempt) in window

See when $NTRA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 68-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Natera, Inc. announced that director Monica Bertagnolli, M.D., resigned from the Board of Directors effective July 1, 2026 to take a position with the National Academy of Medicine. Her resignation was explicitly not the result of any disagreement with the company on operational, policy, or practice matters. Dr. Bertagnolli is a prominent oncologist who also served as director of the National Cancer Institute. Natera has not disclosed plans to immediately fill her board seat.

8-K/AOfficer or director change (amended)Jun 168-K/A — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Natera, Inc. filed an 8-K/A amending its original June 5, 2026 filing to report that the Board increased from 11 to 12 members and appointed Thomas Lynch as a Class I director effective June 2, 2026, with a term expiring at the 2028 annual meeting. Lynch's appointment follows no arrangement or understanding with any third party. This amendment corrects or supplements the original disclosure (Job 29); the substantive event is unchanged. Routine board addition of an independent director to Natera's growing genomics company board.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 168-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Natera, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 11, 2026, at which stockholders approved an amendment to the Amended and Restated 2015 Equity Incentive Plan increasing the reserved share pool by 3.2 million shares. The Annual Meeting also included director elections and other routine proposals (results not fully detailed in the excerpt). The filing also covers the Thomas Lynch board appointment described in a companion 8-K (Job 29). The 3.2M share increase is mildly dilutive, providing runway for employee equity grants as Natera scales its genomics testing business.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 93
AI summary

Thomas J. Lynch, Jr. filed a Form 3 (initial statement of beneficial ownership) for Natera, Inc. following his appointment as a new Class I board member effective June 2, 2026. The filing is addressed c/o Natera's Austin, Texas headquarters. Initial share ownership figures are not visible in the available excerpt. Routine administrative SEC filing accompanying the new board appointment.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 58-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Natera's Board of Directors voted to increase its size from 11 to 12 members and appointed Thomas Lynch as a Class I director, effective June 2, 2026, with a term expiring at the 2028 annual meeting of stockholders. There is no arrangement or understanding between Lynch and any third party concerning his appointment. An 8-K/A (Job 22) was subsequently filed to amend or supplement this disclosure. Routine board expansion adding one independent director.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 93
8-KOfficer or director changeApr 18-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 11 other (3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Stanley Druckenmiller Put 18% of His $3.4 Billion Portfolio in This One Stock. Is Natera a Buy?fool.com·14h agoBeaconlight Capital LLC Raises Position in Natera, Inc. $NTRAdefenseworld.net·11d agoNatera, Inc. $NTRA Shares Purchased by Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnershipdefenseworld.net·11d agoSignatera™ MRD Outperformed AMERK Testing in Predicting Merkel Cell Carcinoma Recurrence in JAMA Dermatology Studybusinesswire.com·14d agoNatera, Inc. $NTRA Shares Sold by California Public Employees Retirement Systemdefenseworld.net·14d ago

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Voices on X · top 2 · last 7 days

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