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VAVALN

Valneva SE

$VALN·$582M·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$6.47+5.4%YTD-28.8%1Y-40.9%
Price updated 11h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
VAVALN
$VALNValneva SE
$6.47+5.37%0 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $VALN on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

0X posts · last 7 days
Sep 11Sep 27

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $VALN — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-09-29

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Valneva is a $582M French vaccines biotech with EMA validation of the Pfizer Lyme program — royalty economics reset the model.

Valneva is a $582M specialized vaccines biotech (IXIARO for Japanese encephalitis, DUKORAL for cholera/ETEC, IXCHIQ chikungunya) with a live Lyme-vaccine regulatory catalyst — the earnings model is about to be rewritten.

The setup:

  • The Lyme catalyst is real: Aug 14 European Medicines Agency validated the Pfizer + Valneva Lyme disease vaccine (VLA15) Marketing Authorization Application. Aug 17 Seeking Alpha framed it as 'Lyme Royalty Transition Changes The Earnings Model' — validation triggers the milestone / royalty income economics with Pfizer as the commercial lead.
  • The operating tape is ugly: Q1 revenue $30.9M (-37% YoY), Q3 2025 -36% YoY. Base commercial vaccines (IXIARO, DUKORAL, IXCHIQ) softened, and R&D burn is the offset. Q2 EPS -$0.40 vs -$0.28 est (-43% surprise). Op margin -68%, ROIC -36%, ROE -106%. Debt/equity 2.73 says the balance sheet is stretched.
  • The tape reflects the tension: -29% YTD, -41% t12m to $6.47, at 23% of the 52-week range, position +6% vs 50-day (Aug 14 EMA validation was the local pivot). Day today +5.4% suggests the Lyme narrative is starting to matter again.

The bull path is Nov 19 Q3 confirming Lyme royalty economics + EMA approval decision (typically ~18 months from validation, so mid-to-late 2027) becoming near-visible. The bear path is base-commercial vaccines continuing to soften plus a capital raise before the Lyme royalty stream materializes.

What to watch: Nov 19 Q3 earnings (consensus -$0.17 EPS). Also EMA Lyme-vaccine review milestones (CHMP opinion typically ~15 months post-validation) and Pfizer's Lyme program communications — Pfizer's disclosure cadence is more concrete than Valneva's on this joint program.

On the calendar: 2026-11-19 — Q3 earnings

regulatory catalystcash burnno sentiment sample

Read the AI verdict on $VALN

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Specialty vaccine biotech with IXIARO (Japanese encephalitis) and a Lyme disease vaccine in late-stage clinical development.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $VALN.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

No material change from last week — mRNA oncology platform remains the structural driver.

What this means for $VALN

Neutral — Specialty vaccine biotech with IXIARO (Japanese encephalitis) and a Lyme disease vaccine in late-stage clinical development.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+24.2%YTD
+48.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-3.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-36.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-68.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-12.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.6Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-106%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
29.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 13, 2026$-0.40$-0.28-42.9%
Q1 2026May 13, 2026$-0.42$-0.21-100.0%
Q4 2025Mar 16, 2026$-0.68$-0.17-293.1%
Q3 2025Nov 20, 2025$-0.61$-0.30-103.3%
Next earningsThu, Nov 19·consensus EPS $-0.17

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$30.9M-37.2%15.3%-76.7%$-0.38$-565K
Q4 FY25$47.7M-9.9%24.4%-58.1%$-0.58$-48.2M
Q3 FY25$29.4M-35.8%18.7%-126%$-0.52$-18.1M
Q2 FY25$48.3M+27.0%50.1%-22.5%$-0.15$-4.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$154.6M$144.9M – $171.9M-$0.79-$0.91 – -$0.735
FY27$304.0M$285.0M – $338.0M$0.68$0.62 – $0.785
FY28$244.0M$228.7M – $271.3M$0.30$0.28 – $0.351
FY29$315.3M$295.6M – $350.6M$0.83$0.76 – $0.952
FY30$447.5M$419.6M – $497.6M$2.27$2.09 – $2.602

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.23%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-10.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 90.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.355-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 12SC 13D/A
+ 14 other (9 6-Ks · 1 EFFECT · 1 CORRESP · 1 UPLOAD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Analyzing Valneva (NASDAQ:VALN) and Septerna (NASDAQ:SEPN)defenseworld.net·5d agoContrasting Absci (NASDAQ:ABSI) & Valneva (NASDAQ:VALN)defenseworld.net·8d agoValneva: The Lyme Royalty Transition Changes The Earnings Modelseekingalpha.com·43d agoEuropean Regulator Validates Pfizer and Valneva's Lyme Disease Vaccine Applicationbenzinga.com·46d agoPfizer and Valneva's Lyme Disease Vaccine Candidate Marketing Authorization Application Validated by European Medicines Agencybusinesswire.com·46d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $VALN on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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