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ULULTA

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

$ULTA·$20B·Specialty Retail·Consumer Cyclical
$475.36-0.5%YTD-21.6%1Y-7.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-19: 1 posts2026-07-20: 4 posts2026-07-21: 4 posts2026-07-22: 1 posts2026-07-23: 1 posts2026-07-24: 4 posts2026-07-25: 0 posts15-6%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 1d ago
ULULTA
$ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.
$475.36-0.54%15 posts-6%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ULTA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-25

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Ulta Beauty at 12% of the 52-week range and 17x P/E — the August 27 print is the reconciliation for the beauty-retail-consumer story.

Ulta Beauty is the leading US beauty specialty retailer with an integrated omnichannel model. Down 22% year to date and 7% over 12 months at 12% of its 52-week range with earnings on August 27, this is a beaten-down consumer name where the fundamentals are relatively defensive.

Why the setup is a real value opportunity:

  • The core business is stable: last quarter revenue grew 11% YoY to $3.16B with operating margin of 13% — those are healthy specialty-retail numbers, and the 17x trailing P/E is at the low end of the historic range for the franchise.
  • The valuation is undemanding: 1.6x price-to-sales for a business with 13% operating margin and mid-teens ROIC is squarely in the reasonable-value bucket for specialty retail — the market has priced in specific beauty-cycle concerns.
  • The near-term risk is consumer-driven: the same K-shaped consumer story affecting MCD and DLTR applies to Ulta — any specific commentary on prestige-vs-mass beauty spending trends is the specific tell to watch through the print.

The August 27 print is the reconciliation event: a same-store sales trajectory holding above +1% plus specific commentary on prestige-beauty resilience and any specific commentary on Ulta Marketplace and Rewards program traction is what continues the trend. A negative comp or specific commentary on prestige-beauty softening is what confirms the cooling read and takes the stock back into the low-$400s.

What to watch: August 27 fiscal Q2 earnings: same-store sales trajectory above +1%, prestige-beauty resilience, and Ulta Marketplace/Rewards traction — a negative comp or prestige-beauty softening takes the stock to the low-$400s.

On the calendar: 2026-08-27 — fiscal Q2 2026 earnings

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

US specialty beauty retailer combining drugstore and prestige cosmetics, skincare, and haircare with in-store salon services.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Specialty Retail sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ULTA.

Specialty Retail · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Amazon's $200B AI infrastructure commitment and AI shopping agent deployment shifts purchase decisions from browsing to autonomous fulfillment, bypassing..

What this means for $ULTA

Neutral — US specialty beauty retailer combining drugstore and prestige cosmetics, skincare, and haircare with in-store salon services; limited read-through from specialty retail macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$XRTSPDR S&P Retail ETF
+1.5%YTD
+6.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
17.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
23.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
12.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.6Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
44.8%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
39.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.9Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Jun 2, 2026$7.74$6.89+12.3%
Q4 2025Mar 12, 2026$8.01$8.10-1.1%
Q3 2025Dec 4, 2025$5.14$4.61+11.5%
Q2 2025Aug 28, 2025$5.78$5.10+13.3%
Next earningsThu, Aug 27·consensus EPS $6.16

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.2B+11.1%40.1%14.2%$7.78$203.6M
Q4 FY25$3.9B+11.8%38.1%12.3%$8.04$907.4M
Q3 FY25$2.9B+12.9%40.4%11.0%$5.16$-82.4M
Q2 FY25$2.8B+9.3%39.2%12.6%$5.80$19.6M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 20 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY27$13.2B$13.2B – $13.3B$28.80$28.44 – $29.1420
FY28$13.9B$13.8B – $14.1B$31.94$31.50 – $33.2520
FY29$14.6B$14.4B – $14.8B$35.33$32.22 – $36.7011
FY30$15.1B$15.0B – $15.3B$37.13$36.63 – $37.705
FY31$16.4B$16.3B – $16.6B$43.65$43.07 – $44.325

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.12%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-0.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-14.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 42.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.885-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 15George R MrkonicDirector383 sh$182KSellApr 7George R MrkonicDirector452 sh$244K
+ 18 other (16 awards · 2 inkinds) in window

See when $ULTA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Ulta Beauty, Inc. announced on July 14, 2026, that board director Kelly E. Garcia will transition to the role of Chief Technology Officer effective approximately August 31, 2026, at which point he will resign from the board. The company issued a concurrent press release (Exhibit 99.1). This is a strategic organizational move that elevates technology leadership to the C-suite from within the board, reflecting Ulta's focus on tech-driven retail transformation rather than a routine departure.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 98-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Ulta Beauty held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026, at which stockholders approved the 2026 Incentive Award Plan (5,001,201 total shares available: 3,500,000 newly authorized plus 1,501,201 carried over from the prior plan, which is now closed to new grants). The meeting also included director elections and potentially other governance votes (Item 5.07 detail cut off), plus an Item 5.03 charter/bylaws amendment. The new equity plan is mildly dilutive; director elections are routine.

+ 14 other (3 proxys · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs · 1 S-8 POS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Here's Why Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Fell More Than Broader Marketzacks.com·5d agoIs the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Ulta Beauty Stock?zacks.com·5d agoIs Ulta (ULTA) a Buy as Wall Street Analysts Look Optimistic?zacks.com·6d agoCalifornia Public Employees Retirement System Raises Stock Position in Ulta Beauty Inc. $ULTAdefenseworld.net·6d agoUlta Beauty vs. Sally Beauty: A Comparison of Recent Revenue Trendsfool.com·7d ago

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