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UGUGI

UGI Corporation

$UGI·$8.1B·Regulated Gas·Utilities
$37.98-0.1%1Y+9.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 2 posts2026-08-22: 0 posts2026-08-23: 1 posts940%
Price updated 14m ago·X counts updated 8d ago
UGUGI
$UGIUGI Corporation
$37.98-0.08%94 posts0%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $UGI, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

UGI Corporation just received an unsolicited $9B KKR buyout offer — the tape surged, but disappointing Q3 results left the fundamental fallback thin.

UGI Corporation is a regulated natural-gas utility plus a global LPG (propane) distribution business (AmeriGas Propane) — a mature energy-infrastructure company that has spent 2026 turning entirely into an M&A story after the Aug 18 KKR buyout offer.

  • The Q3 print was genuinely disappointing: revenue declined 4.5% year-over-year to $1.33B, operating margins turned negative at -3.3%, and Q3 EPS missed consensus by 151% (-$0.20 vs -$0.08 estimate) — the underlying operating story is under pressure even before the KKR overhang.
  • The KKR unsolicited $9B offer is the whole thesis: shares surged on the Aug 18 announcement and the equity now trades primarily as a deal-arbitrage bet — a friendly-negotiated close would price the equity at a specific premium to the current tape, while a rejection would drop it back to the pre-offer $30-32 range.
  • The valuation reflects the M&A optionality: at 12x trailing earnings with a 2.3% free-cash-flow yield, UGI trades on the merger premium rather than fundamentals — the FY27 consensus EPS of $3.26 rising to $3.52 FY28 supports a fair standalone value in the mid-$30s if the deal falls apart.
  • The August activity supports M&A speculation: the $125M 5.45% senior notes offering (Aug 17) at UGI Utilities plus the new executive-comp plan (Aug 10) reads as balance-sheet housekeeping ahead of a potential transaction — those are the specific structural steps that precede an announced deal.

The path if the KKR deal completes is a Nov 18 Q4 print showing continued regulated-utility stability plus a specific announcement on the KKR discussions — the tape re-rates to the deal price. What breaks the setup is a rejection of the KKR offer plus continued operational weakness; that's when the tape reverts to the standalone value in the $30-32 range and the buyout premium fully unwinds.

What to watch: The KKR-UGI negotiations plus the Nov 18 Q4 print — a specific announcement on the KKR discussions plus continued regulated-utility stability re-rates to the deal price; a rejection of the KKR offer plus continued operational weakness is what reverts to the standalone $30-32 range.

On the calendar: 2026-11-18 — Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $UGI

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

UGI distributes propane through AmeriGas (the U.S.'s largest propane retailer) and operates midstream natural gas assets in the U.S. and Europe.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Regulated Gas sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $UGI.

Regulated Gas · Utilities

Rate base growth — driven by grid modernization and data center load additions — is the earnings engine for regulated utilities. Regulatory lag (rate cases vs actual capex) is the near-term cash flow timing risk.

What this means for $UGI

Partial — fee-based midstream revenue has limited direct commodity price exposure but volume ties to upstream production activity.

Top industry ETF

$XLUUtilities Select Sector SPDR
+2.8%YTD
+1.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
12.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
14.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
13.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
46.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$-0.20$-0.08-151.2%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$2.09$2.11-0.9%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$1.26$1.50-16.0%
Q3 2025Nov 20, 2025$-0.23$-0.38+39.1%
Next earningsWed, Nov 18·consensus EPS $-0.39

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$1.3B-4.5%43.1%-3.3%$-0.62$16.0M
Q2 FY26$2.7B+0.7%43.2%22.4%$2.42$494.0M
Q1 FY26$2.1B+2.6%51.4%21.8%$1.38$-155.0M
Q4 FY25$1.2B-3.6%50.5%1.1%$-0.06$-168.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 3 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$7.3B$7.0B – $7.6B$2.80$2.75 – $2.841
FY27$7.7B$7.4B – $8.0B$3.26$3.17 – $3.332
FY28$7.9B$7.0B – $8.7B$3.52$3.29 – $3.693
FY29$8.1B$7.7B – $8.4B$3.77$3.57 – $3.971
FY30$7.8B$7.5B – $8.1B$4.28$4.05 – $4.501

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.68%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+4.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 213.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.955-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 18Kathleen Shea-ballayGC and Chief Legal Officer25.4K sh$852K
+ 3 other (2 exempts · 1 inkind) in window

See when $UGI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementAug 178-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

UGI Utilities (a UGI Corporation subsidiary) completed the private placement of $125 million in aggregate principal amount of 5.45% Senior Notes due August 15, 2031, funded on August 11, 2026. Interest is payable semi-annually on August 15 and February 15 each year; the notes are unsecured, unsubordinated obligations of UGI Utilities. Standard utility debt financing; UGI Utilities raises $125M at 5.45% under a private placement exempt from Securities Act registration.

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 108-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

UGI Corporation's Compensation Committee approved the UGI Corporation Executive Short-Term Incentive Bonus Plan effective October 1, 2026, which supersedes and replaces all prior executive annual bonus plans for UGI, AmeriGas, UGI Utilities, and participating subsidiaries. Administrative consolidation of executive bonus programs across UGI's business units; no material financial impact beyond standardizing plan administration.

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 68-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

UGI Corporation reported Q3 fiscal 2026 financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 via press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1, along with investor presentation materials on the company's website. A live webcast conference call was held August 6, 2026. Routine quarterly earnings announcement; full results and forward-looking guidance are in the attached exhibits.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 78-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

UGI Energy Services (UGI subsidiary) entered into a Fourth Amendment to its Term Loan Credit Agreement on June 30, 2026 with HSBC Bank USA as administrative agent, setting the Applicable Rate at 2.00% per annum for SOFR loans. The amendment adjusts borrowing cost terms under the credit agreement originally dated August 13, 2019. Minor credit agreement amendment adjusting borrowing rates; reduces UGI Energy Services' interest cost on its SOFR-based term loan.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 288-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
8-KAgreement terminatedMay 268-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 1.02: Agreement terminated · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 8.01: Other event
8-KMaterial agreementMay 228-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 128-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
+ 13 other (4 13Gs · 3 routine 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 11-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

SPH vs. UGI: Which Propane Stock Has More Fuel for Growth?zacks.com·5d agoUGI: A KKR Buyout Is Needed To Save The Bull Case After Disappointing Resultsseekingalpha.com·6d agoGreat Lakes Advisors LLC Buys Shares of 17,215 UGI Corporation $UGIdefenseworld.net·7d agoUGI Shares Surge Following Unsolicited $9 Billion KKR Buyout Offerbenzinga.com·13d agoKKR makes $9 billion takeover bid for UGI, WSJ reportsreuters.com·13d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

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