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TSTSAT

Telesat Corporation

$TSAT·$871M·Telecommunications Services·Communication Services
$43.40+1.4%YTD+88.1%1Y+111.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 2 posts15+15%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
TSTSAT
$TSATTelesat Corporation
$43.40+1.35%15 posts+15%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TSAT, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-21

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Canadian satellite operator just signed C$2.3B — the largest contract in company history is a real reset on the Lightspeed thesis.

Telesat Corporation operates a legacy geostationary satellite fleet plus is building out Lightspeed, its next-generation LEO (low earth orbit) constellation. The equity has been a bet on Lightspeed closing enough anchor contracts to justify the multi-billion-dollar network cost; the recent Canadian defense contract is exactly that.

  • Q2 EPS came in at -$7.67 vs -$0.71 consensus — a wildly negative surprise, but on tiny denominators with heavy non-cash items; the more meaningful metric is that revenue continues to decline as the legacy GEO business runs off ahead of Lightspeed monetization.
  • On Aug 11-13 Telesat announced the largest contract in company history — a C$2.3B Lightspeed deal with Canada's Defence Investment Agency for secure Military Ka-band Arctic connectivity, plus C$400M in options for a potential C$2.7B total, adding 69 fully funded satellites and a 15-year government commitment.
  • Stock is +88% year-to-date and +122% over 12 months, sitting at the 59th percentile of its 52-week range — the tape has been rewarding the Lightspeed thesis pre-contract; the actual Aug 11 announcement was the confirmation.
  • A related MDA $474M follow-on Aurora satellite order confirms the ecosystem effect — one anchor tenant pulls in supplier orders.

What sustains the accelerating call is Nov 10 Q3 confirming Lightspeed capex is on track alongside additional customer signings (ESCP-P awards from other governments would be catalysts). What invalidates it is a Lightspeed schedule slip, or the legacy GEO business declining faster than the Lightspeed ramp — the current 88% YTD move is priced for good execution.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on the C$2.3B Canadian Lightspeed contract, 69 satellites added, 15-year government commitment, and MDA follow-on order matches the specific announcements exactly. The 'more ESCP-P awards' expectation is aspirational but reasonable given the Canadian deal template.

What to watch: Nov 10 Q3 earnings — Lightspeed capex progress and any additional government/enterprise customer signings. Watch for legacy GEO revenue decline pace as the second-derivative on the transition timing.

On the calendar: 2026-11-10 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment13 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-11

Telesat chatter is decisively bullish after signing the largest contract in company history: a C$2.3B Lightspeed deal with Canada's Defence Investment Agency for secure Military Ka-band Arctic connectivity, plus C$400M in options for a potential C$2.7B total. The deal adds 69 fully funded satellites expanding Lightspeed capacity by 44%, gives Lightspeed a 15-year government commitment de-risking network expansion, and pulls in an MDA $474M follow-on Aurora satellite order. Bulls expect more ESCP-P awards.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TSAT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

GEO satellite operator providing broadcast and enterprise communications, building the Lightspeed LEO constellation for global connectivity.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Telecommunications Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TSAT.

Telecommunications Services · Communication Services

Wireless subscriber growth is maturing; pricing discipline and convergence bundles (mobile + broadband) are the profitability levers. Network capex cycles — 5G densification — are winding down, improving free cash flow generation.

What this means for $TSAT

Partial — fee-based midstream revenue has limited direct commodity price exposure but volume ties to upstream production activity.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
+28.2%YTD
+32.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
0.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
8.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-62.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-33.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
64.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
7.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 13, 2026$-7.67$-0.71-986.6%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-2.21$-0.67-231.5%
Q4 2025Mar 17, 2026$-6.15$-0.85-623.9%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$-1.73$-0.78-121.8%
Next earningsTue, Nov 10·consensus EPS $-0.91

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$87.3M-25.2%26.6%3.5%$-3.04$-114.4M
Q4 FY25$94.0M-26.6%29.3%7.1%$-8.45$-250.5M
Q3 FY25$101.1M-27.0%95.3%5.9%$-2.38$-138.8M
Q2 FY25$106.1M-30.4%95.9%16.8%$1.43$-65.9M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 4 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$322.0M$316.2M – $325.6M-$6.96-$10.10 – -$2.834
FY27$277.1M$262.6M – $303.6M-$7.48-$12.22 – -$2.894
FY28$557.1M$355.4M – $685.2M-$5.60-$6.29 – -$4.794
FY29$1.0B$889.4M – $1.1B$0.00$0.00 – $0.003
FY30$1.6B$1.5B – $1.8B$0.00$0.00 – $0.003

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.57%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-2.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+11.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 14.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.035-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 9SC 13D/A
AI summary

Telesat (TSAT) — SC 13D/A (Amendment 2) by MHR Institutional Advisors reporting 2,634,891 Class B Variable Voting Shares representing approximately 5.2% of Telesat outstanding, held with sole voting and dispositive power. Informational — routine 5%+ holder update for MHR's position in the satellite operator; no new transaction disclosed.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentApr 2SC 13D/A
AI summary

GAMCO INVESTORS, INC. ET AL filed an amended Schedule 13D on TSAT disclosing beneficial ownership (1,200.00 shares) as of 2026-04-02. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

+ 14 other (11 6-Ks · 2 13Gs · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Telesat: Lightspeed's Strategic Value Is The Bull Caseseekingalpha.com·15d agoTelesat Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·19d agoTelesat Corporation (TSAT) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·19d agoTelesat reports results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026globenewswire.com·19d agoA Look at Telesat Corp (TSAT) After 3.2% Gain -- GF Value $7.73 vs Price $61.40gurufocus.com·19d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space Economy

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