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TSTSAT

Telesat Corporation

$TSAT·$612M·Telecommunications Services·Communication Services
$37.92-2.8%YTD+30.3%1Y+41.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-08: 7 posts2026-07-09: 22 posts2026-07-10: 20 posts2026-07-11: 21 posts2026-07-12: 21 posts2026-07-13: 28 posts2026-07-14: 17 posts150+23%
Price updated 1h ago·X counts updated 46m ago
TSTSAT
$TSATTelesat Corporation
$37.92-2.79%150 posts+23%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TSAT, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-14

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Loss-making satellite operator with a real Canadian defence contract landing on Lightspeed.

Telesat is the Canadian satellite operator building the Lightspeed low-earth-orbit constellation — the strategic bet is that Lightspeed becomes a defence-and-enterprise LEO alternative to Starlink and Kuiper. The operating financials remain ugly: Q1 revenue was $87M and EPS was -$3.04 versus -$0.67 expected, and the previous three quarters also missed.

  • Consensus lines effectively model the pre-Lightspeed operating trough — revenue at $320M this year rising to $511M and then $994M as Lightspeed scales, with losses persisting through the ramp.
  • The catalyst driving this window is real: management reached agreement-in-principle with Canada's Defence Investment Agency to deliver secure Military Ka-band Arctic connectivity for the Canadian Armed Forces via Lightspeed under the ESCP-P program, announced around the NATO summit.
  • A parallel Italian defence contract for secure satellite connectivity is also in the pipeline per Reuters.
  • X sentiment (six posts) is one-directional bullish and specifically tied to "definitive contract execution expected in coming weeks" — the crowd is trading the contract close, not the operating trajectory.
  • There are no insider transactions in the bundle to cross-check management confidence.

The operating business is a legacy satellite fleet in secular decline; the equity value is in Lightspeed execution and the defence pipeline underwriting it. This is a binary catalyst window — a definitive Canadian contract signing would validate the LEO thesis; a delay or renegotiation would put weight back on the loss-making legacy fleet.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish crowd read maps directly to the disclosed ESCP-P agreement-in-principle; both point to contract execution as the near-term unlock.

What to watch: Definitive Canadian ESCP-P contract signing ("coming weeks"); Italian secure-connectivity contract news; any Lightspeed satellite launch or capex-schedule update; August 6 Q2 print for capex commentary.

On the calendar: 2026-08-06 — Q2 earnings (consensus EPS -$0.86)

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-14

Telesat chatter is dominated by the announced agreement-in-principle with Canada's Defence Investment Agency to deliver secure Military Ka-band Lightspeed satellite connectivity across the Arctic under the Enhanced Satellite Communications Project-Polar (ESCP-P) program, revealed during the NATO summit against a rising Arctic-security backdrop. Definitive contract execution is expected in coming months, with MDA also cited alongside Telesat on the award.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TSAT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

GEO satellite operator providing broadcast and enterprise communications, building the Lightspeed LEO constellation for global connectivity.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Telecommunications Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TSAT.

Telecommunications Services · Communication Services

No material change from last week — IRDM's only truly global LEO constellation and GSAT's Apple SOS partnership represent a new service layer that neither cable nor wireless incumbents can match.

What this means for $TSAT

Partial — GEO satellite operator providing broadcast and enterprise communications, building the Lightspeed LEO constellation for global connectivity; this segment overlaps with the LEO satellite global coverage and Apple SOS emergency positioning but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Industry benchmark

19-name peer basket
+18.0%YTD
+33.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
0.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
8.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-62.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-33.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
64.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
7.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-2.21$-0.67-231.5%
Q4 2025Mar 17, 2026$-0.97$-0.85-14.1%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$-1.73$-0.78-121.8%
Q2 2025Aug 6, 2025$1.00$-0.69+244.9%
Next earningsThu, Aug 6·consensus EPS $-0.86

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$87.3M-25.2%26.6%3.5%$-3.04$-114.4M
Q4 FY25$94.0M-26.6%29.3%7.1%$-8.45$-250.5M
Q3 FY25$101.1M-27.0%95.3%5.9%$-2.38$-138.8M
Q2 FY25$106.1M-30.4%95.9%16.8%$1.43$-65.9M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 3 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$319.6M$319.0M – $320.3M-$7.53-$11.75 – -$3.292
FY27$277.3M$258.5M – $296.0M-$8.61-$13.90 – -$3.292
FY28$511.1M$510.0M – $512.2M-$10.82-$11.49 – -$10.213
FY29$993.8M$950.7M – $1.0B$0.00$0.00 – $0.002
FY30$1.6B$1.6B – $1.7B$0.00$0.00 – $0.001

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.49%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-19.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+6.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 14.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.015-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 9SC 13D/A
AI summary

Telesat (TSAT) — SC 13D/A (Amendment 2) by MHR Institutional Advisors reporting 2,634,891 Class B Variable Voting Shares representing approximately 5.2% of Telesat outstanding, held with sole voting and dispositive power. Informational — routine 5%+ holder update for MHR's position in the satellite operator; no new transaction disclosed.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentApr 2SC 13D/A
AI summary

GAMCO INVESTORS, INC. ET AL filed an amended Schedule 13D on TSAT disclosing beneficial ownership (1,200.00 shares) as of 2026-04-02. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

+ 12 other (9 6-Ks · 2 13Gs · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Telesat announces changes to Board of Directorsglobenewswire.com·7d agoTelesat donates satellite capacity to support Venezuela's recovery effortsglobenewswire.com·14d agoTelesat Corporation (TSAT) Shareholder/Analyst Call Prepared Remarks Transcriptseekingalpha.com·42d agoCanada's Telesat eyes secure Italian satellite connectivity contract, sources sayreuters.com·50d agoTelesat Corporation (TSAT) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·71d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space Economy

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $TSAT on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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