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TOTOL

Toll Brothers, Inc.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX mentions rising faster than the marketMoving on elevated volumeBullish-leaning chatter
$TOL·$14B·Residential Construction·Consumer Cyclical
$155.67+4.0%YTD+15.1%1Y+43.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-06-13: 4 posts2026-06-14: 1 posts2026-06-15: 4 posts2026-06-16: 3 posts2026-06-17: 5 posts2026-06-18: 11 posts2026-06-19: 8 posts36+29%
Price updated 19h ago·X counts updated 19h ago
TOTOL
Toll Brothers, Inc.$TOL
$155.67+4.02%36 posts+29%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TOL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-06-20

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Q2 revenue -7.6% but 14% op margin and 5.4% EPS beat; KBW upgrade flags the homebuilder-bottom-is-in framing.

Toll Brothers is a $13.75B luxury homebuilder whose operating margin is holding through a cyclical reset. Q2 fiscal-2026 revenue $2.53B was 7.6% below year-ago on a 13.7% operating margin and EPS $2.74 — a 5.4% positive surprise after a 6.8% beat and a -6.1% miss. Next earnings August 18 against a $2.89 EPS estimate. The structural picture: stock at $155.67 is up 15% year-to-date and 44% over twelve months, sitting in the top 20% of its 52-week range and 11% above the 200-day on a heavy 1.58x volume multiplier (committed participation through positioning). A May 19 8-K covered the earnings release; a May 13 8-K covered an officer change. Two insider Section 16 events are limited. News flow highlights new community openings (Doylestown PA, Germantown MD, Cumming GA) consistent with steady community-count growth. With debt-to-equity at 0.34, the structural read is on whether August 18 confirms continued operating-margin resilience.

Agrees with X sentimentX posts cite Toll Brothers earning a KBW upgrade to Market Outperform as housing-sector commentary turns marginally less horrendous, describe the homebuilder bottom as in, frame real estate as a bright spot, and reference key technical levels alongside LEN, PHM, DHI, and SDHC. That aligns with the structural read — operating margins are holding through the cycle reset and the cohort tape supports a rerate.

What to watch: August 18 print — same-store community count, gross-margin trajectory off the 14% operating-margin base, and any commentary on luxury-buyer absorption; further KBW or analyst-cohort upgrades; the May 13 officer change details; mortgage-rate tape; LEN/PHM/DHI/SDHC peer tape; insider Section 16 trade direction.

On the calendar: Earnings 2026-08-18

news presentsentiment present

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-16

Toll Brothers earns a KBW upgrade to Market Outperform as housing-sector commentary turns marginally less horrendous and posters describe the homebuilder bottom as in. Real estate is described as a bright spot in an otherwise tough tape, with technicians laying out key levels alongside LEN, PHM, DHI, and SDHC. A residual luxury-community sell-down at University Park, Palm Desert frames the operational backdrop.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TOL

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Builds luxury single-family homes and active-adult communities in affluent US suburbs; America's largest luxury homebuilder.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Residential Construction sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TOL.

Residential Construction · Consumer Cyclical

Affordability compression at 7%+ mortgage rates is the structural headwind, but Lennar's Q2 beat on cost discipline confirms builders can maintain earnings through incentives and rate buy-downs. Luxury and active-adult (TOL) holds better; manufactured housing (SKY) benefits from affordability constraint driving alternative format demand.

What this means for $TOL

Partial — Toll Brothers' luxury single-family and active-adult communities in affluent suburbs are less sensitive to mortgage rate pressure than entry-level; affluent buyers with equity can absorb 7%+ rates, but discretionary luxury purchase timing still slows at sustained high rates.

Top industry ETF

$ITBiShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
+2.6%YTD
+10.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
10.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
14.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
9.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
15.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
24.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 19, 2026$2.72$2.58+5.4%
Q4 2025Feb 17, 2026$2.19$2.05+6.8%
Q3 2025Dec 8, 2025$4.58$4.88-6.1%
Q2 2025Aug 19, 2025$3.73$3.60+3.6%
Next earningsTue, Aug 18·consensus EPS $2.89

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$2.5B-7.6%23.9%13.7%$2.74$110.0M
Q1 FY26$2.1B+15.4%22.8%10.2%$2.20$-11.6M
Q4 FY25$3.4B+2.7%26.0%16.5%$4.62$772.2M
Q3 FY25$2.9B+8.0%26.0%16.6%$3.76$344.9M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$10.7B$10.4B – $10.8B$12.78$12.65 – $12.9211
FY27$11.1B$10.5B – $11.4B$14.14$13.45 – $14.5011
FY28$11.8B$11.7B – $11.9B$16.00$15.33 – $16.345

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.80%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+10.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+10.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 92.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 18Douglas C. YearleyChair78.0K sh$12.2MSellApr 15Stephen F. EastDirector1.0K sh$140KSellMar 4John A McleanDirector2.3K sh$355KSellFeb 27Douglas C. YearleyCEO27.0K sh$4.3MSellFeb 24Douglas C. YearleyCEO45.1K sh$7.2MSellJan 15Paul E ShapiroDirector4.0K sh$582K
+ 22 other (16 exempts · 4 gifts · 1 inkind · 1 award) in window

See when $TOL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 138-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) filed an 8-K on May 12, 2026 (event date May 12, 2026) reporting a personnel change (Item 5.02) and an other-event disclosure (Item 8.01), separate from its May 19 earnings filing. Toll Brothers is a Fort Washington, Pennsylvania-based luxury homebuilder. An executive change at Toll Brothers is noteworthy; the concurrent Item 8.01 suggests an accompanying business announcement, which may relate to a strategic decision connected to the personnel change.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
AI summary

Karl K. Mistry, newly appointed CEO and Director of Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), filed Form 3 as of March 30, 2026, disclosing initial beneficial ownership. He directly owns 162 shares of Common Stock acquired under the Employee Stock Purchase Plan. He holds RSUs covering approximately 79,935 shares across five tranches, vesting between 2026 and 2029, including a 53,100-share CEO transition grant with 50% vesting in March 2026 and the remainder in March 2027. This is a routine administrative disclosure for the incoming CEO, with RSU grants reflecting standard long-term incentive compensation.

8-KOfficer or director changeMar 318-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) completed a previously announced CEO succession on March 30, 2026, with Karl K. Mistry appointed CEO and added as a Director, succeeding Douglas C. Yearley, Jr., who transitioned to Executive Chairman. The Board was expanded from 9 to 10 members to accommodate Mistry's directorship, with a term expiring at the 2027 annual meeting. No related-party arrangements or committee assignments were disclosed. This is an administratively significant change completing a planned CEO transition at one of the largest U.S. homebuilders.

8-KShareholder voteMar 118-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
8-KMaterial agreementFeb 58-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
3New insider — initial holdingsFeb 23
8-KOfficer or director changeJan 78-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 8.01: Other event
+ 10 other (3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Toll Brothers Announces New Luxury Townhome Community Coming Soon to Doylestown, Pennsylvaniaglobenewswire.com·1d agoToll Brothers Announces New Luxury Townhome Community Coming Soon to Doylestown, Pennsylvaniaglobenewswire.com·1d agoIs Trending Stock Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) a Buy Now?zacks.com·1d agoToll Brothers Announces New Luxury Home Community Now Open in Germantown, Marylandglobenewswire.com·2d agoToll Brothers at Heardmont Farms Community Now Open in Cumming, Georgiaglobenewswire.com·2d ago

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