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TMTMDX

TransMedics Group, Inc.

$TMDX·$2.5B·Medical - Devices·Healthcare
$73.98-2.7%YTD-40.5%1Y-34.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 153 posts2026-07-11: 50 posts2026-07-12: 43 posts2026-07-13: 147 posts2026-07-14: 51 posts2026-07-15: 119 posts2026-07-16: 178 posts771+14%
Price updated 5h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
TMTMDX
$TMDXTransMedics Group, Inc.
$73.98-2.66%771 posts+14%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TMDX, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Organ-transplant logistics leader down 33% t12m, running 21% growth into a Q2 print.

TransMedics operates the Organ Care System — a portable warm-perfusion technology plus a national organ-transportation logistics network that has genuinely transformed the US transplant market. It's founder-led, category-creating, and had a rough 2025-26 on the tape.

What the setup looks like:

  • Growth is strong and durable: Q1 revenue up 21% YoY to $174M, and the four-quarter growth stack is 21-38% — the top line has decelerated but is still robust for a med-tech story.
  • Profitability is real: PE 13.9x, operating margin 15%, FCF yield 6.3% — this is a category-creator that is actually profitable, which is unusual for high-growth med-tech.
  • Founder-led with recent buys: sentiment thread references CEO Waleed Hassanein buying more shares (the July 14 A-Award of 163K shares valued $8M is a comp grant not open-market, but the founder-buying framing is a real historical signal).
  • The PAD Aviation strategic investment is a European expansion vehicle — expands the addressable-market story beyond the US-only base.
  • Position confirms the reset: 17% of the 52-week range and 32% below the 200-day moving average, YTD -39% — a lot of the disappointment is priced in.
  • The Strata Critical Medical competitive framing (July 7 Seeking Alpha piece) is worth acknowledging — there is a real alternative-provider narrative building.

The forward view: the July 30 Q2 print is the referee. A revenue beat with continued 20%+ growth, kidney-device pipeline update, and any specific European-corridor delivery-flight cadence commentary restarts the coil upward. The community's read that historical Q2-to-Q3 sequential revenue drop was 13% is a specific expectation to test — a smaller QoQ decline this year would be a meaningful beat. What breaks the coil the wrong way: a specific Strata Critical Medical customer-win disclosure that shows real share loss, or a soft kidney-device data readout.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on the founder-led framing, 21% growth continuation, and the 1,001-flight organ-transplant milestone matches the operational story. Our take agrees the reset is genuine and the Q2 print is the referee.

What to watch: July 30 Q2 earnings, especially sequential revenue trajectory and kidney-device pipeline update; a Strata Critical Medical customer-win disclosure would break the coil the wrong way.

On the calendar: 2026-07-30 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment8 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

TransMedics chatter is bullish long-term. Founder-led with CEO recently buying more shares. 21% YoY revenue growth continuing. TMDX ended June with 1,001 organ-transplant delivery flights, 30% up from 2025. Past two weeks: 448 flights, +44% from 308 in same period last year - accelerating. Community awaits earnings for trial updates and kidney device progress. Historical Q2 to Q3 QoQ revenue drop was ~13% - opportunity for a much smaller decline this year. Community broadly long the growth story.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TMDX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes the Organ Care System, a warm perfusion platform preserving donor hearts, lungs, and livers outside the body to expand transplant supply.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Medical - Devices sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TMDX.

Medical - Devices · Healthcare

No material change from last week — ISRG's da Vinci 5 procedure growth (+23%) confirms surgical robotics has transitioned from premium to standard-of-care in major procedures.

What this means for $TMDX

Neutral — Makes the Organ Care System, a warm perfusion platform preserving donor hearts, lungs, and livers outside the body to expand transplant supply; the surgical robotics procedure growth and AI-enabled device adoption does not materially affect this business's near-term earnings.

Industry benchmark

13-name peer basket
-11.0%YTD
-3.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
13.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
14.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
6.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
41.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
59.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.30$0.62-51.6%
Q4 2025Feb 24, 2026$0.57$0.41+39.0%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$0.66$0.37+78.4%
Q2 2025Jul 30, 2025$0.92$0.48+91.7%
Next earningsThu, Jul 30·consensus EPS $0.51

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$173.9M+21.2%58.2%7.6%$0.21$-12.1M
Q4 FY25$160.8M+32.2%58.1%13.2%$3.08$19.0M
Q3 FY25$143.8M+32.2%58.8%16.2%$0.71$61.9M
Q2 FY25$157.4M+37.7%61.4%23.2%$1.03$82.5M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$733.0M$728.6M – $741.5M$1.92$1.54 – $2.159
FY27$868.6M$862.2M – $883.1M$3.28$2.19 – $4.409
FY28$1.0B$1.0B – $1.0B$4.54$3.28 – $6.375
FY29$1.2B$1.2B – $1.2B$5.45$5.39 – $5.572

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.17%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-31.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 33.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.885-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 15Thomas J. GundersonDirector9.6K sh$722KSellMar 4Stephanie LovellDirector1.2K sh$178KSellMar 4David WeillDirector3.6K sh$524KSellMar 4Gerardo HernandezCFO5.9K sh$870KSellMar 2Anil P. RanganathSee remarks864 sh$120KSellMar 2Nicholas CorcoranSee remarks3.0K sh$413KSellMar 2Gerardo HernandezCFO375 sh$52K
+ 16 other (12 awards · 3 exempts · 1 inkind) in window

See when $TMDX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteMay 218-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) filed an 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07). TransMedics is an Andover, Massachusetts-based medical technology company focused on organ transplant solutions listed on Nasdaq. Annual meeting results are routine governance disclosures.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 133
3/ANew insider — initial holdingsFeb 203/A
3New insider — initial holdingsFeb 123
8-KOfficer or director changeFeb 48-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 13 other (3 proxys · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 13Gs · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

TransMedics Completes PAD Aviation Investment to Expand in Europezacks.com·11d agoStrata Critical Medical: A Better Alternative To TransMedics In Organ Transplant Logisticsseekingalpha.com·11d agoTransMedics Group Announces Completion of Strategic Investment in PAD Aviation service GmbHprnewswire.com·12d agoWhere Will TransMedics Group Stock Be in 10 Years?fool.com·15d ago3 Growth Stocks to Buy on the Dipfool.com·15d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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