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TMTMDX

TransMedics Group, Inc.

$TMDX·$2.9B·Medical - Devices·Healthcare
$84.87-4.0%YTD-35.0%1Y-23.9%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 10 posts2026-08-23: 67 posts438-44%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
TMTMDX
$TMDXTransMedics Group, Inc.
$84.87-4.03%438 posts-44%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TMDX, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Organ transport tech down 45% off the highs with securities investigations, but the underlying business is still growing 20%+ and cheap on trailing.

TransMedics operates the Organ Care System — the medical device + logistics platform that keeps donor hearts, lungs and livers perfused during transport, dramatically expanding the pool of viable organs. The stock has come apart despite the business itself continuing to scale.

How it reads:

  • The operational story is still working: Q1 revenue grew 21% year-on-year to $174M, Q4 was +32%, and the crowd reports 30+ flights per day in August with Q3 tracking to beat Q2's $190M — a business scaling into a real market.
  • Valuation is dramatically cheaper: 13.9x earnings, 20x EV/EBITDA, 3.8x sales and 6.3% FCF yield — for a 20%+ grower with 15% operating margins in specialty-medical, this only makes sense against the overhang.
  • The overhang is real: multiple securities-fraud investigations (Rosen, Kahn Swick & Foti) have been announced around potential fiduciary-duty breaches — law firms building books usually precede a stock-drop suit, and the market is pricing it.
  • Institutional signal is quietly positive: Emerald Investment Advisers acquired 30,456 shares on August 23 — specialist accumulation into weakness.
  • Insider signal is neutral: only a director gift (Tobin), no open-market sales.

The November 4 print is the resolution point — a $190M+ Q3 revenue print with reiterated CHOPS-approval visibility validates the turnaround call and starts to reset the multiple; a soft print with any new legal disclosure keeps the 45% drawdown intact and risks a break of the $70 low.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree — the bull anchors (30+ flights/day, Q3 tracking above Q2's $190M, 35%+ YoY growth, CHOPS approval as short-term catalyst) map to real signals and the trailing multiple is genuinely cheap; the honest note the sample skips is the multiple securities-fraud investigations that are keeping the multiple compressed.

What to watch: November 4 earnings — Q3 revenue needs to print above $190M, CHOPS approval visibility, and any resolution or expansion of the securities-fraud investigations; a soft print or a new legal disclosure risks a break of the $70 low.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment8 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

TransMedics longs are emphatic, with one poster holding roughly 30% in the name and citing Q2 revenue of $189.9M up 21%, liver growing to $148M and 60% gross margins as evidence the story is compounding. Real-time flight trackers point to about $195M of gross bookings this quarter and 30%+ year-over-year growth, and posters flag CHOPS approval as a possible near-term spark. The 22-aircraft logistics moat is treated as uncopyable.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TMDX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes the Organ Care System, a warm perfusion platform preserving donor hearts, lungs, and livers outside the body to expand transplant supply.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Medical - Devices sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TMDX.

Medical - Devices · Healthcare

Elective procedure volume recovery and aging-demographic demand are the structural drivers; robotic surgery adoption (ISRG) and GLP-1-driven procedure mix shifts are the near-term dynamics. Hospital capex cycles determine device upgrade timing — CapEx returning after COVID deferral.

What this means for $TMDX

Partial — software subscription economics provide some insulation from macro cycles; AI integration is the growth catalyst for this segment; TransMedics Group, Inc.

Industry benchmark

25-name peer basket
+9.4%YTD
+26.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
13.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
14.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
6.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
41.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
59.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 4, 2026$0.44$0.50-11.2%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.30$0.62-51.6%
Q4 2025Feb 24, 2026$0.57$0.41+39.0%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$0.66$0.37+78.4%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $0.31

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$173.9M+21.2%58.2%7.6%$0.21$-12.1M
Q4 FY25$160.8M+32.2%58.1%13.2%$3.08$19.0M
Q3 FY25$143.8M+32.2%58.8%16.2%$0.71$61.9M
Q2 FY25$157.4M+37.7%61.4%23.2%$1.03$82.5M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$732.3M$727.9M – $740.8M$1.80$1.49 – $1.939
FY27$867.8M$861.5M – $882.3M$3.08$2.23 – $4.499
FY28$1.0B$970.0M – $1.0B$4.54$3.28 – $6.375
FY29$1.2B$1.2B – $1.2B$5.45$5.35 – $5.582

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.30%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+11.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-16.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 33.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.885-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 15Thomas J. GundersonDirector9.6K sh$722K
+ 13 other (11 awards · 1 gift · 1 exempt) in window

See when $TMDX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteMay 218-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) filed an 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07). TransMedics is an Andover, Massachusetts-based medical technology company focused on organ transplant solutions listed on Nasdaq. Annual meeting results are routine governance disclosures.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 133
+ 12 other (3 proxys · 3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

TransMedics to Present at Upcoming September Investor Conferencesprnewswire.com·10h agoTransMedics Group, Inc. Investor News: Rosen Law Firm Announces Investigation of Breaches of Fiduciary Duties by the Directors and Officers of TransMedics Group, Inc. – TMDXglobenewswire.com·3d agoTransMedics Group Investigation Initiated: Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC Investigates the Officers and Directors of TransMedics Group, Inc. - TMDXprnewswire.com·3d agoDid TransMedics Group, Inc. Insiders Breach their Fiduciary Duties to Shareholders?prnewswire.com·7d ago30,456 Shares in TransMedics Group, Inc. $TMDX Acquired by Emerald Investment Advisers LLCdefenseworld.net·9d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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