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STSTZ

Constellation Brands, Inc.

$STZ·$25B·Beverages - Alcoholic·Consumer Defensive
$137.61-1.5%YTD+0.9%1Y-14.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-06-22: 2 posts2026-06-23: 4 posts2026-06-24: 1 posts2026-06-25: 3 posts2026-06-26: 18 posts2026-06-27: 15 posts2026-06-28: 29 posts72
Price updated 7m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
STSTZ
$STZConstellation Brands, Inc.
$137.61-1.47%72 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $STZ, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-06-30

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Constellation Brands at $140, 15x PE, 31% operating margin Modelo/Corona maker — Q1 earnings TOMORROW June 30 is the immediate catalyst test.

Constellation Brands is the US distributor of the Modelo and Corona beer franchises (the high-end import beer cohort) plus a smaller wine and spirits portfolio — a structurally-margin-rich consumer-defensive at 31% operating margin. The stock is essentially flat YTD and down 14% TTM, sitting at 26% of the 52-week range with Q1 earnings tomorrow (June 30) as the immediate catalyst.

Where the bet now sits:

  • The Q4 print is testing through immigration-policy headwinds: revenue FELL 11.3% YoY to $1.92B (real contraction reflecting Modelo/Corona Hispanic-consumer pullback) with 26% op margin and $1.16 EPS, FY26 Q1 EPS estimate (tomorrow) is $3.22 — bull case rests on Q1 stabilizing the beer-segment narrative.
  • The earnings preview cadence is loaded: Investopedia 'How Much Its Stock Could Move' (June 29), Benzinga '$500 A Month Ahead Of Q1 Earnings' (June 26), Zacks Q1 Earnings Preview (June 25) — broad coverage anticipation around the print at 26%-of-52w-range.
  • Sentiment data is null in this bundle so X-chatter is unmeasured — operating fundamentals intact, multiple undemanding, brand-franchise moat structural, but the Hispanic-consumer-pullback narrative on Modelo/Corona is the load-bearing concern the print must address.

June 30 Q1 earnings (TOMORROW) is the next decision — a beat with the $3.22 EPS print plus a Q2 commentary that signals beer-segment volume stabilization plus continued operating-margin durability restarts the move from this 26%-of-52w-range compression. A miss on beer-segment volumes, another quarter of double-digit revenue contraction, or a guide that flattens FY27 EPS into the $11-$12 range is what would extend the stalled pattern despite the franchise-moat thesis.

What to watch: June 30 Q1 earnings (tomorrow) — a beat with the $3.22 EPS print plus a Q2 commentary that signals beer-segment volume stabilization plus continued operating-margin durability restarts the move from this 26%-of-52w-range compression; a miss on beer-segment volumes, another quarter of double-digit revenue contraction, or a guide that flattens FY27 EPS into the $11-$12 range extends the stalled pattern.

On the calendar: 2026-06-30 — Q1 earnings (TOMORROW)

sentiment unavailableq1 earnings tomorrowmodelo corona franchisehispanic consumer pullback31pct operating margin

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Hard Seltzer, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Corona Refresca, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Oro, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brands. It also offers wine under the Cook’s California Champagne, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, Schrader, and The Prisoner Wine Company brands; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson’s Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands. The company provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise locations, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Rochester, New York.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Beverages - Alcoholic sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $STZ.

Beverages - Alcoholic · Consumer Defensive

Brazil's growing middle-class beer consumption is ABEV's structural driver — Latin American volume and pricing remain positive despite macroeconomic volatility, positioning Ambev as the dominant beer brand across 14 countries under its Anheuser-Busch franchise. No other member in this group to compare against.

Top industry ETF

$XLPConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
+8.6%YTD
+4.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
15.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.5%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
31.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
7.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
22.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
51.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 8, 2026$1.90$1.71+11.1%
Q4 2025Jan 7, 2026$3.06$2.63+16.3%
Q3 2025Oct 6, 2025$3.63$3.38+7.4%
Q2 2025Jul 1, 2025$3.22$3.31-2.7%
Next earningsTue, Jun 30·consensus EPS $3.22

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$1.9B-11.3%49.6%26.0%$1.16$343.9M
Q3 FY26$2.2B-9.8%53.2%31.1%$2.88$370.9M
Q2 FY26$2.5B-15.0%52.8%35.2%$2.65$634.8M
Q1 FY26$2.5B-5.5%50.8%31.7%$2.90$444.4M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 16 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY27$9.1B$9.0B – $9.2B$11.79$11.49 – $12.3916
FY28$9.3B$9.0B – $9.5B$12.41$11.76 – $13.0915
FY29$9.5B$9.5B – $9.5B$13.27$11.03 – $15.5111
FY30$9.9B$9.7B – $10.2B$15.19$14.69 – $15.625
FY31$10.1B$9.8B – $10.3B$15.68$15.16 – $16.124

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.26%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-4.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-4.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 155.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.385-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMay 12James O. BourdeauEVP and Senior Advisor4.4K sh$631K
+ 17 other (8 exempts · 8 inkinds · 1 award) in window

See when $STZ insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

This Modelo and Corona Beer Maker Reports Earnings Tuesday. Here's How Much Its Stock Could Moveinvestopedia.com·1d agoMag 7 Sell-Off Creates Opportunity as MU & AI Chips Run Hotyoutube.com·4d agoHow To Earn $500 A Month From Constellation Brands Stock Ahead Of Q1 Earningsbenzinga.com·5d agoBrown-Forman Stock Outlook Hinges on Premium Growth and FY27 Riskszacks.com·5d agoConstellation Brands Q1 Earnings Preview: What to Expect?zacks.com·5d ago

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