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STSTX

Seagate Technology Holdings plc

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 44% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (1.6K/wk), no spike
$STX·$145B·Computer Hardware·Technology
$639.01-7.5%YTD+224.0%1Y+182.7%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
STSTX
$STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc
$639.01-7.50%1.6k posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $STX on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

1,595X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $STX's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data23 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

The $STX conversation runs two tracks and both lean bullish — Seagate (the stock, near $940) is coiling in a triple inside-day flag and is being pitched as a cheap proxy into Micron's print at 25.6x FY27 against MU's 6.8x; Stacks (the Bitcoin L2 token near $0.33) is adding institutional BTC staking via Anchorage. The restraint on the Seagate side is "wait for the $940 break" rather than any real bear thesis.

Read what X is saying about $STX

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $STX — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

An HDD maker tripled this year on AI-storage scarcity — Toshiba's expansion news and $100M+ in C-suite selling are the first real cracks.

Seagate is one of two Western makers of enterprise-grade hard drives — the storage layer underneath the AI buildout that hyperscalers haven't yet moved to SSD at scale. The stock has more than tripled this year on the AI-data-storage thesis, before Toshiba's capacity-expansion news on Oct 2.

  • The business is working: Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $3.1B at +44% YoY with 32% operating margins — HDD pricing has stayed firm because demand genuinely outruns supply, and consensus has FY27 revenue at $17B.
  • 78x trailing earnings is paying for a scarcity premium: at that multiple for a 44% YoY grower, any sign the HDD shortage is easing compresses the multiple fast — Toshiba announcing AI-storage capacity expansion on Oct 2 is exactly that signal.
  • Insider selling is now extreme: CEO Mosley sold $27.7M on Oct 1, Romano $38.6M on Sept 15, Teh Ban Seng $31.5M — $100M+ in C-suite selling in two weeks is not a cluster you dismiss as planned diversification.

An Oct 28 earnings beat with HDD pricing holding keeps the thesis; any supply-loosening or margin give-back and the 78x multiple de-rates sharply.

Agrees with X sentimentX pitches STX as a cheap proxy at 25.6x FY27 vs MU's 6.8x into Micron's print — real relative-value call. The crowd isn't centering the $100M+ September insider cluster or the Toshiba supply-expansion signal, both of which are the active bear catalysts.

What to watch: Oct 28 Q1 earnings — HDD pricing per TB holding (any step-down signals the Toshiba news is working through), gross margin above 41%, and any further guidance on hyperscaler commitments through 2027. A guide cut or margin backslide breaks the setup fast.

On the calendar: 2026-10-28 — fiscal Q1 2027 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $STX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes hard disk drives for cloud storage and surveillance, with high-capacity nearline HDDs in demand for AI data.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Computer Hardware sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $STX.

Computer Hardware · Technology

No material change from last week — hyperscaler AI server capex continues to drive the cycle.

What this means for $STX

Neutral — Makes hard disk drives for cloud storage and surveillance, with high-capacity nearline HDDs in demand for AI data.

Top industry ETF

$SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
+83.9%YTD
+70.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
78.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
45.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
28.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
17.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
9.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
41.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
3.8Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 28, 2026$5.71$5.10+12.0%
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$4.10$3.51+16.8%
Q4 2025Jan 27, 2026$3.11$2.78+11.9%
Q3 2025Oct 28, 2025$2.61$2.40+8.8%
Next earningsTue, Oct 27·consensus EPS $7.40

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$3.1B+44.1%46.5%32.1%$3.38$953.0M
Q2 FY26$2.8B+21.5%41.6%29.9%$2.75$828.0M
Q1 FY26$2.6B+21.3%39.4%26.9%$2.58$427.0M
Q4 FY25$2.4B+29.5%37.4%23.2%$2.30$425.0M

Forward consensus

10-year forecast · up to 18 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$12.1B$12.0B – $12.1B$14.91$14.80 – $15.1017
FY26$12.1B$12.0B – $12.1B$14.91$14.80 – $15.1017
FY27$17.0B$15.3B – $19.0B$28.54$23.29 – $36.0017
FY27$18.7B$17.8B – $19.9B$36.16$32.12 – $41.9716
FY28$22.3B$22.0B – $22.7B$45.57$33.51 – $64.1518
FY28$25.4B$21.9B – $29.3B$57.02$40.60 – $78.3815
FY29$27.1B$26.8B – $27.4B$60.50$52.27 – $72.364
FY29$31.2B$28.4B – $35.0B$80.05$73.86 – $91.849
FY30$30.8B$27.6B – $35.5B$90.81$78.46 – $108.613
FY30$36.8B$31.9B – $45.0B$115.60$95.47 – $148.855

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.46%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-24.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-5.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 225.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.085-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellOct 1William D MosleyCEO30.0K sh$27.7MSellSep 21Morris John ChristopherCTO160 sh$138KSellSep 15Gianluca RomanoCFO50.0K sh$38.6MSellSep 15Teh Ban SengEVP & Chief Commercial Officer40.5K sh$31.5MSellSep 15Morris John ChristopherCTO15.5K sh$11.9MSellSep 15William D MosleyCEO97.9K sh$75.6MSellSep 14Morris John ChristopherCTO493 sh$385KSellSep 14Gianluca RomanoCFO955 sh$746KSellSep 14Teh Ban SengEVP & Chief Commercial Officer989 sh$770KSellSep 11Gianluca RomanoCFO1.4K sh$1.2M
1–10 of 43
+ 36 other (36 exempts) in window

See when $STX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KUnregistered equity saleSep 98-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Seagate Technology issued 1,647,862 ordinary shares on September 8, 2026 to settle $150.51 million aggregate principal amount of its 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028, utilizing the Section 3(a)(9) registration exemption. Seagate simultaneously announced its intent to fully redeem the remaining outstanding Exchangeable Notes via a cash redemption. Together, the settlement and cash redemption eliminate Seagate's hybrid convertible debt overhang and terminate the 3.50% Exchangeable Notes program entirely.

8-KOfficer or director changeSep 48-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Seagate Technology Holdings filed an 8-K on September 2, 2026, reporting that director Shankar Arumugavelu has notified the board that he will not stand for re-election at Seagate's 2026 Annual General Meeting under Item 5.02. The decision is not related to any disagreement with the company regarding its operations, policies, or practices. The departure takes effect at the conclusion of the AGM.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 288-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

STX (STX) reported financial results for fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year ended July 3, 2026 via 8-K Item 2.02, filed 2026-07-28. Full financials are in the attached press release (Exhibit 99.1). Quarterly earnings contain headline P&L, balance sheet, and guidance. Investors should review the exhibit for revenue, margins, EPS, and any updates to full-year outlook.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 128-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Seagate Technology (via subsidiary Seagate HDD Cayman) called all outstanding 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 for full cash redemption on September 8, 2026 at par plus accrued interest. Holders may elect to exchange their notes for shares of Seagate common stock at any time prior to 5:00 p.m. ET on September 3, 2026; notes not exchanged will be redeemed in full for cash on September 8. This transaction retires a contingent equity dilution overhang while giving debt holders a final window to convert into equity if the exchange ratio is attractive.

8-KUnregistered equity saleMay 288-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Seagate Technology issued 2,023,124 ordinary shares in private placement exchange transactions (Section 4(a)(2) exemption from Securities Act registration) and disclosed an investor presentation under Regulation FD. The shares were issued in exchanges with existing holders — the exact instruments being exchanged and the counterparties are described in the full filing. These privately-placed shares could relate to convertible note exchanges or similar structured transactions; the private-placement label indicates limited dilution breadth, but investor presentations alongside equity issuances typically signal strategic communication to investors.

8-KUnregistered equity saleMay 218-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) filed an 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing unregistered equity sales (Item 3.02), a Regulation FD disclosure (Item 7.01), and an other-event announcement (Item 8.01). Seagate is a Singapore-based Irish-incorporated data storage company listed on Nasdaq. The concurrent Items 3.02 and 7.01 suggest a private placement or convertible note transaction alongside an investor presentation; any dilutive equity event at a major storage hardware company is material.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 68-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

STX disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-06). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 288-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

STX reported third quarter ended April 3, 2026. The press release financial results (8-K Item 2.02). Investors should review the full earnings press release and any management guidance for forward outlook.

+ 10 other (4 13Gs · 2 proxys · 1 ARS · 1 10-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Seagate and Western Digital Stocks Fall on Toshiba Fears. Wells Fargo Is Still Bullish.barrons.com·16h agoFriday's First Moves: WDC & STX PT Cuts, NFLX New Content Chief, FOXA Double Upgradeyoutube.com·17h agoSeagate, Western Digital Face Supply Risks as AI Demand Drives Capacity Expansionbenzinga.com·18h agoCan Seagate's 44TB Mozaic 4 Drives Lift Gross Margins Further?zacks.com·2d agoAI Trade Takes Another Hit Thursday as Tech Sell-Off Continuesinvestopedia.com·2d ago

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Voices on X · top 10 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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