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STSTX

Seagate Technology Holdings plc

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 44% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (2.4K/wk), no spike
$STX·$177B·Computer Hardware·Technology
$787.66+5.7%YTD+179.3%1Y+436.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 413 posts2026-07-11: 123 posts2026-07-12: 238 posts2026-07-13: 384 posts2026-07-14: 336 posts2026-07-15: 401 posts2026-07-16: 419 posts2,366+0%
Price updated 11h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
STSTX
$STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc
$787.66+5.66%2.4k posts+0%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $STX, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Storage cycle winner that has quadrupled in a year just got a 10% haircut with directors trimming into the highs.

Seagate makes the hard-disk drives that hyperscalers use to store the exabytes of data that AI models train on and serve from. After a long HDD winter, capacity pricing plus HAMR technology plus AI-driven demand has turned the business into one of the top-performing hardware stories of the cycle.

What's actually working — and where the caution belongs:

  • The cycle is showing up in the numbers: fiscal Q3 revenue grew 44% YoY to $3.1B with operating margin at 32%, up from 23% four quarters ago — the cycle-margin leverage is exactly what the bulls modeled for a tight capacity backdrop.
  • The multiple is now doing the work: at 79x trailing earnings and 12x FY27 consensus EPS of $14.90, the shares already price in another full year of cycle strength — hard-drive equities historically de-rate before the cycle rolls over, not after.
  • Insider action is uncomfortable at these levels: director William Mosley cashed out $27.4M in a single transaction on July 2 — a $30M sale from a single insider into a parabolic move is real signal, not routine housekeeping.
  • Today's tape hurt: shares dropped 10% in a session on chip-stock weakness, cutting the 52-week-range position back to the middle after being at extremes — the multiple compression the bears worry about has started to visit at least once.

The forward look: the July 28 fiscal Q4 print is the referee. A beat with capacity-per-drive and hyperscaler-mix commentary that says the tight-supply backdrop persists into FY27 keeps the story alive; any hint of enterprise softness or a pricing rollover and the multiple gets marked down against the cycle-peak comparison, and the director selling starts looking like the earliest indicator. Watch also NVIDIA's HBM commentary — a memory-supply headline that redirects hyperscaler capex could tug HDD orders sideways.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish equity chatter (Susquehanna $775 PT, memory-cycle bottom) tracks the fundamentals; the small $STX Stacks crypto side-thread is unrelated. Our net: the story is real, the multiple and director selling say the tape is at least due for digestion.

What to watch: July 28 fiscal Q4 earnings and any pricing/capacity commentary; another director sale in the days after a soft print would turn the cooling into a real reset.

On the calendar: 2026-07-28 — Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment8 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Seagate chatter is bullish but currently below 50DMA alongside SNDK/WDC/INTC/NVDA/SOXX/SMH. Susquehanna maintained Neutral and raised STX PT to $775 - a big jump. Ron Wyden tracker (Senate finance committee) holds STX alongside NVDA/AAPL/GOOGL/AMAT. Community also has $STX Stacks crypto discussion including Hachi Bounty and Bitcoin staking on Stacks. Community broadly long the memory-cycle bottom.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $STX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes hard disk drives for cloud storage and surveillance, with high-capacity nearline HDDs in demand for AI data.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Computer Hardware sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $STX.

Computer Hardware · Technology

No material change from last week — STX and WDC (SanDisk spinoff) benefit from LLM training requiring petabyte-scale nearline storage infrastructure.

What this means for $STX

Direct beneficiary — Makes hard disk drives for cloud storage and surveillance, with high-capacity nearline HDDs in demand for AI data; the company is structurally positioned to capture the LLM training data storage demand pulling HDD/SSD production cycle.

Top industry ETF

$SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
+69.1%YTD
+111.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
78.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
45.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
28.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
17.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
9.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
41.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
3.8Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$4.10$3.51+16.8%
Q4 2025Jan 27, 2026$3.11$2.78+11.9%
Q3 2025Oct 28, 2025$2.61$2.40+8.8%
Q2 2025Jul 29, 2025$2.59$2.45+5.7%
Next earningsTue, Jul 28·consensus EPS $5.10

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$3.1B+44.1%46.5%32.1%$3.38$953.0M
Q2 FY26$2.8B+21.5%41.6%29.9%$2.75$828.0M
Q1 FY26$2.6B+21.3%39.4%26.9%$2.58$427.0M
Q4 FY25$2.4B+29.5%37.4%23.2%$2.30$425.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 18 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$12.1B$12.0B – $12.1B$14.91$14.80 – $15.1017
FY27$16.8B$15.2B – $18.8B$28.05$22.89 – $35.3917
FY28$21.7B$21.6B – $21.8B$43.32$31.86 – $60.9918
FY29$27.4B$26.9B – $27.8B$66.19$57.72 – $76.254
FY30$30.8B$27.8B – $34.4B$90.81$79.19 – $104.603

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.65%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-10.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+61.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 223.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.075-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 1William D MosleyCEO30.0K sh$27.4MSellJun 12William D MosleyCEO1.8K sh$1.6MSellJun 12Teh Ban SengEVP & Chief Commercial Officer989 sh$871KSellJun 12Morris John ChristopherCTO1.4K sh$1.2MSellJun 12Gianluca RomanoCFO903 sh$795KSellJun 10Teh Ban SengEVP & Chief Commercial Officer663 sh$545KSellJun 10Morris John ChristopherCTO574 sh$471KSellJun 10William D MosleyCEO2.9K sh$2.3MSellJun 10Gianluca RomanoCFO1.4K sh$1.1MSellJun 4Shankar ArumugaveluDirector1.0K sh$928K
1–10 of 18
+ 14 other (14 exempts) in window

See when $STX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 128-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Seagate Technology (via subsidiary Seagate HDD Cayman) called all outstanding 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 for full cash redemption on September 8, 2026 at par plus accrued interest. Holders may elect to exchange their notes for shares of Seagate common stock at any time prior to 5:00 p.m. ET on September 3, 2026; notes not exchanged will be redeemed in full for cash on September 8. This transaction retires a contingent equity dilution overhang while giving debt holders a final window to convert into equity if the exchange ratio is attractive.

8-KUnregistered equity saleMay 288-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Seagate Technology issued 2,023,124 ordinary shares in private placement exchange transactions (Section 4(a)(2) exemption from Securities Act registration) and disclosed an investor presentation under Regulation FD. The shares were issued in exchanges with existing holders — the exact instruments being exchanged and the counterparties are described in the full filing. These privately-placed shares could relate to convertible note exchanges or similar structured transactions; the private-placement label indicates limited dilution breadth, but investor presentations alongside equity issuances typically signal strategic communication to investors.

8-KUnregistered equity saleMay 218-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) filed an 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing unregistered equity sales (Item 3.02), a Regulation FD disclosure (Item 7.01), and an other-event announcement (Item 8.01). Seagate is a Singapore-based Irish-incorporated data storage company listed on Nasdaq. The concurrent Items 3.02 and 7.01 suggest a private placement or convertible note transaction alongside an investor presentation; any dilutive equity event at a major storage hardware company is material.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 68-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

STX disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-06). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 288-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

STX reported third quarter ended April 3, 2026. The press release financial results (8-K Item 2.02). Investors should review the full earnings press release and any management guidance for forward outlook.

8-KUnregistered equity saleFeb 198-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
8-KUnregistered equity saleFeb 128-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
8-KPress release / Reg FDJan 278-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 8 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 1 SD · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

This New ETF Targets AI Memory Leaders and Weekly Cash Payoutsbenzinga.com·17h ago4 Top-Ranked Memory Stocks to Buy as AI Infrastructure Expands Globallyzacks.com·21h agoEveryone's Buying NVIDIA, but 2 Smaller AI Stocks Could Soar Higherzacks.com·2d agoThe Chip-Stock Slide Isn't Over. The AI Trade Is Still Under Pressure.investopedia.com·2d agoWhich Storage Stock Is Best Positioned to Win the AI Memory War?marketbeat.com·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Best PerformersAI InfrastructureAI Memory Supercycle

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Voices on X · top 7 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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