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SMSMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

$SMCI·$27B·Computer Hardware·Technology
$31.63-9.9%YTD+36.9%1Y-41.3%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
SMSMCI
$SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.
$31.63-9.86%1.9k posts1.1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $SMCI on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

1,911X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1.1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $SMCI's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 79% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data14 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

Sentiment is strongly bullish — Supermicro is up ~80% since the July low, broke out above the weekly 200MA and the $42.31 trigger, and bulls are pitching it as "the next DELL" with a fair value of $206 against a ~$43 spot citing the SpaceX partnership alone. Fiscal 2027 revenue guide is $65-72B. Longs are already modeling $75-85 near-term. There is no bear voice in the sample — just reminders not to let "old 2.5-year-old shit" anchor the view.

Read what X is saying about $SMCI

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $SMCI — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Driven by hypeAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

AI server reseller back in favor on the SpaceX narrative — 8% gross margin keeps it a volume game, not a quality one.

Super Micro assembles AI server racks around Nvidia GPUs — a reseller/integrator that benefits every time hyperscalers or neoclouds place GPU orders. The stock is now ~80% off the July low after reclaiming the 200-week moving average and leaning into a SpaceX partnership narrative.

  • Revenue growth is undeniable at 123% YoY to $10.2B — but the business is low-quality by semi standards: 8.4% gross margin and 4.5% operating margin, so this is a volume shop, not a software-like compounder.
  • Insiders are already distributing into the strength: CEO Charles Liang and director Sara Liu each sold $7.7M in September across two tranches at $37-$40 — a steady drip that says the people who know the forward book best are trimming into the 80%-off-the-low ramp.
  • At 20x trailing earnings on 4.5% margins the valuation is actually reasonable; FY27 revenue guidance of $65-$72B is the number everything else keys off, and if that's conservative there's room, but if it's aspirational the stock re-rates.

Accelerating holds while hyperscaler and neocloud orders keep landing. A Nov 3 revenue print below the implied run-rate (think $12B+), or any auditor-related issue flaring up again (that scar isn't fully healed), is what cracks the move.

Agrees with X sentimentX longs calling SMCI 'the next DELL' and anchoring at $206 fair value are leaning on real guidance ($65-$72B FY27) — but 'this is where traders get in trouble' is the honest counter-tell, especially when insiders are selling $7.7M each into the exact rally the chartists are celebrating.

What to watch: Nov 3 earnings — revenue vs the implied FY27 run-rate (~$16B/quarter) and any color on gross margin recovery above 10%. A revenue miss, or a margin print below 8%, is what invalidates the chart.

On the calendar: 2026-11-03 — Q1 FY27 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $SMCI

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Assembles high-density AI servers and rack-scale systems integrating NVIDIA GPUs for hyperscale and enterprise data centers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Computer Hardware sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SMCI.

Computer Hardware · Technology

No material change from last week — hyperscaler AI server capex continues to drive the cycle.

What this means for $SMCI

Direct beneficiary — Assembles high-density AI servers and rack-scale systems integrating NVIDIA GPUs for hyperscale and enterprise data centers.

Top industry ETF

$SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
+83.9%YTD
+70.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
20.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
4.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-27.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
18.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
8.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.9Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 11, 2026$1.70$0.92+84.2%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.84$0.62+36.1%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$0.69$0.49+40.8%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.35$0.37-6.6%
Next earningsTue, Nov 3·consensus EPS $1.04

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$10.2B+122.7%9.9%6.1%$0.81$-6.7B
Q2 FY26$12.7B+123.4%6.3%3.7%$0.67$-45.1M
Q1 FY26$5.0B-15.5%9.3%3.6%$0.28$-949.8M
Q4 FY25$5.8B+7.5%9.5%4.0%$0.33$840.9M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 12 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$39.5B$39.0B – $40.1B$2.80$2.68 – $2.8612
FY27$67.1B$64.4B – $68.6B$4.34$3.90 – $4.9012
FY28$79.0B$70.5B – $88.0B$5.35$4.72 – $6.3511
FY29$91.7B$77.7B – $106.7B$6.01$5.30 – $6.805

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.33%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-18.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-2.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 557.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today7.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.015-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellOct 7Liu Liang Chiu-chu SaraDirector100.0K sh$4.5MSellOct 7Charles LiangCEO100.0K sh$4.5MSellSep 4Charles LiangCEO100.0K sh$4.0MSellSep 4Liu Liang Chiu-chu SaraDirector100.0K sh$4.0MSellSep 3Charles LiangCEO100.0K sh$3.7MSellSep 3Liu Liang Chiu-chu SaraDirector100.0K sh$3.7M
+ 71 other (29 exempts · 26 inkinds · 14 awards · 2 gifts) in window

See when $SMCI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeOct 88-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
3New insider — initial holdingsAug 73
AI summary

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) disclosed in a Form 3 that an officer holds stock options at $66.63 exercise price expiring July 30, 2034, plus RSU grants of 2,250 shares and 7,500 shares. The original options vested 1/4th on the first anniversary and 1/16th per quarter from August 2, 2022.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 158-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 3.03 · Item 5.03: Charter amendment
AI summary

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) entered into a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01) and reported material modification of security holder rights (Item 3.03) along with charter/bylaw amendments (Item 5.03) in an 8-K filed June 15, 2026. Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the specific agreement terms and charter modification details are disclosed.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 128-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) entered an at-the-market (ATM) equity distribution agreement on June 11, 2026 with J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup to sell up to $1.25 billion of common stock over time, with agents earning up to 1.0% commission. This ATM program is one of three concurrent capital raises alongside a 45.45 million share primary offering and a 75 million depositary share mandatory convertible preferred offering. The combined capital program is intended to fund approximately $39 billion in AI server orders (Data Center Building Block Solutions) from more than 20 customers.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 12424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer offered 75,000,000 depositary shares (each representing a 1/20th interest in one share of 7.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock) with a liquidation preference of $50 per depositary share ($1,000 per preferred share). Each preferred share mandatorily converts into 30.3040 to 36.3640 common shares by June 1, 2029, based on a 20-day VWAP averaging period. This preferred offering is one leg of SMCI's three-part concurrent capital raise intended to fund approximately $39 billion in AI server order backlog, with the mandatory conversion mechanism creating significant future common stock dilution.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 12424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer's ATM prospectus supplement authorizes the sale of up to $1.25 billion in common stock over time through J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup as sales agents, who earn up to 1.0% of gross proceeds; SMCI common stock was trading at $29.27 on June 10, 2026. This ATM program is one of three concurrent capital raises alongside a fixed-price 45.45 million share equity offering and a 75 million depositary share mandatory convertible preferred offering.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 12424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer offered 45,454,545 shares of common stock at $27.50 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $1.25 billion ($1.22 billion net after underwriting discounts); underwriters hold a 30-day option for 6,818,181 additional shares. Proceeds, together with proceeds from the concurrent preferred stock and ATM offerings, are intended to fund approximately $39 billion in AI server order backlog (Data Center Building Block Solutions) from more than 20 customers. This is a highly dilutive capital raise that simultaneously signals strong AI infrastructure demand momentum.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 10424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer is offering 75,000,000 depositary shares (each representing a 1/20th interest in a share of Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, liquidation preference $1,000/share or $50/depositary share) in a preliminary 424B5 filed June 10, 2026. The preferred stock pays cumulative dividends at a rate to be determined, convertible mandatorily into common stock on approximately June 1, 2029, with cash or stock dividend options quarterly from September 2026. This preferred offering runs concurrently with a $1.25B common stock offering and a $2B ATM program, with proceeds intended to fund ~$39B in AI server orders from 20+ customers. The triple-tranche capital raise is highly dilutive but signals massive backlog-driven demand that is transformative for SMCI's growth trajectory.

+ 23 other (7 13Gs · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 2 routine 8-Ks · 2 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Falls 5% as AI Financing Worries Extend Hardware Selloff; Super Micro Sinks 7%, Dell Drops 3%247wallst.com·16h agoWall Street sets SMCI stock price target for next 12 monthsfinbold.com·19h agoDell Falls 8%, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Drops 4% as Barclays Cuts Both to Hold; Super Micro Slides 5%247wallst.com·2d agoSuper Micro appoints Mark Long as chief financial officerreuters.com·2d agoSupermicro Appoints Mark Long as Chief Financial Officerbusinesswire.com·2d ago

In themes

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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