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SMSMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

$SMCI·$20B·Computer Hardware·Technology
$37.27+0.5%YTD+5.8%1Y-8.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 44 posts1,022+4%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
SMSMCI
$SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.
$37.27+0.51%1.0k posts+4%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $SMCI, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

AI-server maker with real revenue explosion and real cash-flow problems — Cisco partnership solved half the demand story, doesn't touch the working-capital hole.

Super Micro is the specialized server maker that builds air- and liquid-cooled AI infrastructure — the pick-and-shovel play on NVIDIA's platform ramp, and the name recovering from an accounting-scandal drawdown. The stock has struggled to reclaim its all-time highs even as revenue growth stays torrid and a fresh Cisco partnership landed on liquid-cooled NVIDIA Rubin racks.

  • Revenue growth is spectacular: Q3 was $10.24B up 123% YoY, with EPS of $1.70 beating estimates by 84% — the business is converting the NVIDIA cycle into P&L at a rate that justifies the interest even at a compressed multiple.
  • The cash-flow problem is the real limiter: Q3 free-cash-flow outflow was $6.7B on ballooning inventory, meaning Super Micro is funding growth through working capital and needs external financing to keep the volume ramp going without dilution.
  • The Cisco partnership is meaningful but partial: joint go-to-market on liquid-cooled Rubin racks unlocks enterprise sales channels Super Micro couldn't reach alone, but as Forbes noted, it 'only solves half of Super Micro's problem' — demand isn't the constraint, working capital is.
  • The Taiwan indictment of two employees over alleged AI-server smuggling to China is the honest overhang: it briefly cut the stock 7% and even absorbed, adds an export-control risk to a business that depends on smooth NVIDIA sourcing.

The setup keeps working as long as Cisco channel sales convert quickly and the cash-flow gap closes without a large dilutive raise — November 3 earnings is when the working-capital picture gets a fresh read. What invalidates: another quarter of negative FCF requiring a big equity raise, or a Taiwan-indictment escalation that touches senior management or NVIDIA supply.

Agrees with X sentimentBulls' Cisco-partnership and $65-72B FY27 guide framing are directionally correct — real demand, real revenue growth. Skeptics' negative-operating-cash-flow and inventory-ballooning point is the load-bearing counter: demand isn't the constraint, working capital is, and that argument has evidence in the print.

What to watch: November 3 Q1 FY27 earnings — need free cash flow moving toward positive and Cisco-partnership channel revenue visible. A negative-FCF quarter requiring an equity raise, or a Taiwan-indictment escalation to senior management, invalidates the momentum extension.

On the calendar: 2026-11-03 — Q1 FY27 earnings

ai server infrastructurecash flow problemcisco partnership newregulatory overhang taiwan

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment87 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Enthusiasm dominates as posters frame Super Micro as the most mispriced AI-infrastructure name, pointing to the fresh Cisco partnership on liquid-cooled NVIDIA Rubin racks and a $65-$72B FY27 revenue guide. Skeptics counter with negative operating cash flow, ballooning inventory, and the Taiwan indictment of two employees over alleged AI-server smuggling to China, which briefly sent shares down about 7%. Cup-and-handle chart calls and gamma-squeeze options talk keep the loudest voices tilted long.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $SMCI

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Assembles high-density AI servers and rack-scale systems integrating NVIDIA GPUs for hyperscale and enterprise data centers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Computer Hardware sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SMCI.

Computer Hardware · Technology

AI server infrastructure buildout drives compute shipment volumes; Dell and HPE are riding the same hyperscaler capex wave that lifted NVDA. Non-AI commercial refresh remains soft, so the bull case is concentrated in AI infrastructure exposure.

What this means for $SMCI

Direct beneficiary — semiconductor products are directly in the AI capex supply chain; Super Micro Computer, Inc.

Top industry ETF

$SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
+75.7%YTD
+110.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
20.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
4.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-27.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
18.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
8.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.9Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 11, 2026$1.70$0.92+84.2%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.84$0.62+36.1%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$0.69$0.49+40.8%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.35$0.37-6.6%
Next earningsTue, Nov 3·consensus EPS $1.06

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$10.2B+122.7%9.9%6.1%$0.81$-6.7B
Q2 FY26$12.7B+123.4%6.3%3.7%$0.67$-45.1M
Q1 FY26$5.0B-15.5%9.3%3.6%$0.28$-949.8M
Q4 FY25$5.8B+7.5%9.5%4.0%$0.33$840.9M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 13 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$39.7B$39.2B – $40.0B$2.60$2.54 – $2.6312
FY27$52.2B$48.3B – $57.0B$3.12$2.76 – $3.4513
FY28$62.9B$53.1B – $78.7B$3.58$3.20 – $4.049
FY29$60.9B$59.8B – $62.0B$3.54$3.11 – $4.262

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.45%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+18.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+19.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 563.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today4.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.975-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 68 other (29 exempts · 26 inkinds · 11 awards · 2 gifts) in window

See when $SMCI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 73
AI summary

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) disclosed in a Form 3 that an officer holds stock options at $66.63 exercise price expiring July 30, 2034, plus RSU grants of 2,250 shares and 7,500 shares. The original options vested 1/4th on the first anniversary and 1/16th per quarter from August 2, 2022.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 158-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 3.03 · Item 5.03: Charter amendment
AI summary

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) entered into a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01) and reported material modification of security holder rights (Item 3.03) along with charter/bylaw amendments (Item 5.03) in an 8-K filed June 15, 2026. Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the specific agreement terms and charter modification details are disclosed.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 128-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) entered an at-the-market (ATM) equity distribution agreement on June 11, 2026 with J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup to sell up to $1.25 billion of common stock over time, with agents earning up to 1.0% commission. This ATM program is one of three concurrent capital raises alongside a 45.45 million share primary offering and a 75 million depositary share mandatory convertible preferred offering. The combined capital program is intended to fund approximately $39 billion in AI server orders (Data Center Building Block Solutions) from more than 20 customers.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 12424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer offered 75,000,000 depositary shares (each representing a 1/20th interest in one share of 7.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock) with a liquidation preference of $50 per depositary share ($1,000 per preferred share). Each preferred share mandatorily converts into 30.3040 to 36.3640 common shares by June 1, 2029, based on a 20-day VWAP averaging period. This preferred offering is one leg of SMCI's three-part concurrent capital raise intended to fund approximately $39 billion in AI server order backlog, with the mandatory conversion mechanism creating significant future common stock dilution.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 12424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer's ATM prospectus supplement authorizes the sale of up to $1.25 billion in common stock over time through J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup as sales agents, who earn up to 1.0% of gross proceeds; SMCI common stock was trading at $29.27 on June 10, 2026. This ATM program is one of three concurrent capital raises alongside a fixed-price 45.45 million share equity offering and a 75 million depositary share mandatory convertible preferred offering.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 12424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer offered 45,454,545 shares of common stock at $27.50 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $1.25 billion ($1.22 billion net after underwriting discounts); underwriters hold a 30-day option for 6,818,181 additional shares. Proceeds, together with proceeds from the concurrent preferred stock and ATM offerings, are intended to fund approximately $39 billion in AI server order backlog (Data Center Building Block Solutions) from more than 20 customers. This is a highly dilutive capital raise that simultaneously signals strong AI infrastructure demand momentum.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 10424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer is offering 75,000,000 depositary shares (each representing a 1/20th interest in a share of Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, liquidation preference $1,000/share or $50/depositary share) in a preliminary 424B5 filed June 10, 2026. The preferred stock pays cumulative dividends at a rate to be determined, convertible mandatorily into common stock on approximately June 1, 2029, with cash or stock dividend options quarterly from September 2026. This preferred offering runs concurrently with a $1.25B common stock offering and a $2B ATM program, with proceeds intended to fund ~$39B in AI server orders from 20+ customers. The triple-tranche capital raise is highly dilutive but signals massive backlog-driven demand that is transformative for SMCI's growth trajectory.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 10424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer is raising $1.25 billion through a common stock offering at a last-reported price of $40.64 per share (June 9, 2026), with a 30-day underwriter overallotment option for up to an additional $187.5M in shares. The offering runs concurrently with a mandatory convertible preferred depositary share offering and a $2B ATM equity distribution program. Net proceeds, combined with the concurrent transactions, are earmarked to fund component purchases for approximately $39 billion of AI server orders recently received from more than 20 customers, with remaining proceeds for general corporate purposes including debt repayment. The massive three-part capital raise is significantly dilutive near-term but is directly tied to a historic AI infrastructure demand surge, making it a transformative financing event.

+ 23 other (8 13Gs · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 8-Ks · 2 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Super Micro Computer Investigation Initiated: Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC Investigates the Officers and Directors of Super Micro Computer, Inc. - SMCIgurufocus.com·13h agoSuper Micro Computer Investigation Initiated: Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC Investigates the Officers and Directors of Super Micro Computer, Inc. - SMCIbusinesswire.com·14h agoShould You Buy Super Micro Computer (SMCI) After Golden Cross?zacks.com·16h agoZacks Industry Outlook Western Digital, Sandisk and Super Micro Computerzacks.com·4d ago3 Storage Devices Stocks to Buy as the Industry Gains Momentumzacks.com·5d ago

In themes

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AI Infrastructure

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