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SOSOC

Sable Offshore Corp.

$SOC·$699M·Oil & Gas Drilling·Energy
$4.15+3.0%YTD-58.1%1Y-86.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-07: 13 posts2026-08-08: 9 posts2026-08-09: 5 posts2026-08-10: 25 posts2026-08-11: 26 posts2026-08-12: 21 posts2026-08-13: 35 posts134+3%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 3d ago
SOSOC
$SOCSable Offshore Corp.
$4.15+2.98%134 posts+3%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $SOC, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-15

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Sable Offshore is the post-restructuring oil producer at -86% YoY — auditor resigned, deeply discounted equity raise, deep skepticism.

Sable Offshore is a post-restructuring California offshore oil producer trying to restart production at legacy Santa Ynez Unit assets — the equity has been essentially a permit-timing-plus-capital-raise story, and multiple recent events have broken trust.

  • The stock has collapsed 86% YoY: at 4.7% of 52w with -35% below the 50d MA and -57% below the 200d MA — this is a broken-chart post-restructuring name where every capital event compounds the drag.
  • The auditor resigned in July: Adeptus Partners LLC resigned effective July 9 with going-concern qualifications in prior reports — the specific fact pattern that signals credibility-of-financials risk.
  • The July equity raise was punitive: $100M common stock at $3.08 vs prior close of $6.97 (a 56% discount) — that's not orderly capital markets, that's distressed pricing to just complete the raise.
  • Q2 was a big miss: EPS -$0.42 vs +$0.37 (-215%), revenue $137M vs $238M — production ramp hasn't materialized on the priced-in timeline.
  • Investor tone uniformly skeptical: California refiners don't want the oil, Q2 marketing issues "may not be temporary," loan-repayment questions.

What resolves this either way is either successful oil production ramp with realized California pricing, or a specific balance-sheet event (asset sale, restructuring, wind-down). Absent those, the base case is continued drift toward zero. The invalidator is any positive California-market development that flips the marketing story — a big ask right now.

Agrees with X sentimentAgrees with the X bearish read — the concerns are consistent and specific: hedged at lows, marketing issues, California refiners not wanting the oil, loan-repayment questions. All are legitimate given the fact pattern.

What to watch: Any Santa Ynez production ramp with realized California pricing, or specific balance-sheet event (asset sale, restructuring). Absent those, drift continues.

On the calendar: 2026-11-12 — Q3 earnings

going concernauditor resignation

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bearish sentiment8 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-14

Sable Offshore is bearish. Multiple concerns: hedged and refi'd at oil lows this summer, marketing issues in Q2 that 'may not be temporary,' cali refiners don't want the oil, questions about loan repayment (8-K missing), and the capital-structure framing 'it could always be worse.' Deep skepticism dominates.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $SOC

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

California offshore oil and gas E&P company restarting production from three Santa Barbara Channel platforms across 76,000 federal acres.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Drilling sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SOC.

Oil & Gas Drilling · Energy

No material change from last week — structural undersupply of capable ultra-deepwater rigs after years of underinvestment is creating backlog visibility for the few large-asset operators that..

What this means for $SOC

Neutral — California offshore oil and gas E&P company restarting production from three Santa Barbara Channel platforms across 76,000 federal acres; limited read-through from oil & gas drilling macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$OIHVanEck Oil Services ETF
+37.1%YTD
+75.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-1.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-29.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-368%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-144%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
344.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-114%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-61.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 10, 2026$-0.42$0.37-214.8%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$-1.37$-0.64-114.1%
Q4 2025Feb 27, 2026$-0.39$-0.59+33.9%
Q3 2025Nov 13, 2025$-1.11$-0.90-23.3%
Next earningsThu, Nov 12·consensus EPS $-0.24

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.3M—-5253%-9343%$-1.37$-103.5M
Q4 FY25$0———$-0.43$-192.7M
Q3 FY25$0———$-1.21$-240.7M
Q2 FY25$0———$-1.40$-95.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 2 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$697.8M$690.8M – $704.9M-$0.37-$0.38 – -$0.372
FY27$1.0B$998.9M – $1.0B$1.54$1.52 – $1.562
FY28$964.0M$955.0M – $973.0M$2.07$2.04 – $2.101
FY29$943.0M$933.5M – $952.5M$1.58$1.56 – $1.601
FY30$942.0M$932.5M – $951.5M$1.73$1.71 – $1.751

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.5%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-34.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-57.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 160.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today6.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.145-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellApr 29Gregory D. PatrinelyCFO39.3K sh$533KSellApr 29James C FloresCEO68.8K sh$933KSellApr 29Flores James CaldwellCOO39.3K sh$533KSellApr 29Anthony DuennerSee Remarks39.3K sh$533KSellApr 28Anthony DuennerSee Remarks40.7K sh$543KSellApr 28Gregory D. PatrinelyCFO40.7K sh$543KSellApr 28Flores James CaldwellCOO40.7K sh$543KSellApr 28James C FloresCEO71.3K sh$950KSellMar 31Anthony DuennerSee Remarks279.1K sh$4.7MSellMar 31Gregory D. PatrinelyCFO279.1K sh$4.7M
1–10 of 11
+ 14 other (8 exempts · 6 awards) in window

See when $SOC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 108-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Sable Offshore (SOC) issued a press release on August 10, 2026 reporting results for the period ended June 30, 2026, and separately posted new investor presentation materials on its website. Specific production, revenue, and operational figures are in Exhibit 99.1.

8-KMaterial eventJul 138-K — Item 4.01
AI summary

Sable Offshore Corp (SOC) — 8-K (Item 4.01) reporting that auditor Adeptus Partners LLC resigned on July 9, 2026, effective immediately, with the company now seeking a replacement. Prior audited reports contained going-concern qualifications. Material — same auditor (Adeptus) departing as FJET; going-concern history elevates risk; company must locate a new auditor.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 28-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Sable Offshore issued $345M aggregate principal of 6.5% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 under an indenture with U.S. Bank Trust Company as trustee, plus a 30-day underwriter option for $45M additional. Interest is payable semi-annually on January 1 and July 1, maturing July 1, 2031. Significant convertible debt raise creating potential equity dilution.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jul 2424B5
AI summary

Sable Offshore convertible note pricing term sheet: 6.5% due July 1, 2031 ($345M plus $45M over-allotment option); converts at 130% of conversion price for 20 of 30 consecutive trading days. Final pricing document for the dual capital raise alongside the concurrent common stock offering.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jul 2424B5
AI summary

Sable Offshore filed a prospectus supplement for approximately $100M common stock offering at $3.08/share versus a prior close of $6.97 on June 29 — approximately a 56% discount to market. This deeply discounted equity offering is materially dilutive to existing shareholders.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jul 1424B5
AI summary

Sable Offshore pricing term sheet (dated July 1, 2026) supplementing both preliminary prospectuses from June 30 for the simultaneous common stock and convertible note offerings. Pricing supplement confirming final terms for the dual capital raise.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jul 1424B5
AI summary

Sable Offshore convertible note pricing term sheet confirming the 6.5% due July 1, 2031 offering terms including the $345M principal amount with $45M over-allotment. Same substance as job 80; likely a re-filed version of the final pricing supplement.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 30424B5
AI summary

Sable Offshore preliminary prospectus for $300M (plus $45M over-allotment) convertible notes at a rate TBD, maturing July 1, 2031, with conditional conversion at 130% of conversion price. Preliminary filing preceding the final pricing in subsequent documents.

+ 27 other (12 13Gs · 7 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Sable Offshore: Too Risky, Moving To Sellseekingalpha.com·4d agoSable Offshore Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·5d agoSable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimateszacks.com·6d agoSable Offshore Corp. Announces Timing of Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Callbusinesswire.com·6d agoSable Offshore Corp. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial and Operational Resultsbusinesswire.com·6d ago

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