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SMSMPL

The Simply Good Foods Company

$SMPL·$1.1B·Packaged Foods·Consumer Defensive
$12.07+1.6%YTD-39.8%1Y-63.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 146 posts2026-07-10: 67 posts2026-07-11: 34 posts2026-07-12: 25 posts2026-07-13: 47 posts2026-07-14: 23 posts2026-07-15: 39 posts383+3%
Price updated 9h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
SMSMPL
$SMPLThe Simply Good Foods Company
$12.07+1.60%383 posts+3%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $SMPL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Simply Good Foods is down 64% over twelve months on missed guidance and now faces investor loss alerts on the recent 18% slide.

The Simply Good Foods Company owns Atkins and Quest Nutrition packaged nutrition brands with only $1.13B market cap and no long-term debt on the balance sheet.

  • Trailing twelve months, the stock is down 64%, year-to-date down 41%, and shares sit at just 7% of the 52-week range — a full breakdown chart with no near-term technical support.
  • Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue was $357M, down 6.3% year-over-year — the third consecutive quarter of negative growth after the Quest acquisition failed to reaccelerate the top line as guided.
  • On July 15, an investor loss alert was issued citing 'expansion issues' leading to the recent 18% single-day drop; a July 9 earnings call revealed the softer Quest ramp and a full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guide well below the $1.35B consensus.
  • Trailing return on equity is negative 12.3%, operating margin has compressed to 5.9%, and the 32.1% gross margin, while healthy for packaged foods, cannot offset the volume decline.
  • Balance sheet quality is a bright spot — free-cash-flow yield of 12.9% and zero long-term debt provide a large cushion, but the market is pricing continued execution disappointment and analyst estimates for fiscal 2027 EPS at $1.70 look aspirational.

This is a broken-story pattern: the fundamental deceleration is real, the story has caught up with the fundamentals, and the next print (October 22) is the catalyst either for capitulation or for evidence the reset guide is achievable.

What to watch: October 22 fiscal Q4 2026 earnings — whether the Quest ramp shows any stabilization or continues to decline is the central binary, along with Atkins core-portfolio trends, private-label competition commentary, and the fiscal 2027 revenue guide versus the $1.30B analyst mid-point (which is below fiscal 2026 revenue).

On the calendar: 2026-10-22 fiscal Q4 2026 earnings; Quest ramp and fiscal 2027 guide are the two variables that matter.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $SMPL

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Markets protein-focused snacks and meal replacements under Atkins and Quest brands, targeting active-lifestyle and low-carb consumers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Packaged Foods sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SMPL.

Packaged Foods · Consumer Defensive

No material change from last week — WEST's private-label coffee co-packing benefits from consumer switching from branded to value coffee, while DAR's food waste conversion to bio-based..

What this means for $SMPL

Partial — The Simply Good Foods Company ensures broad availability through an extensive distribution network that includes major retailers, grocery chains, pharmacies, wholesale club stores, convenience stores,; this segment overlaps with the private-label consumer trade-down extending the value shift from branded but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Industry benchmark

11-name peer basket
+25.3%YTD
+8.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
3.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
5.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
12.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-12.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
32.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 9, 2026$0.42$0.35+20.0%
Q1 2026Apr 9, 2026$0.45$0.40+12.5%
Q4 2025Jan 8, 2026$0.39$0.36+8.3%
Q3 2025Oct 23, 2025$0.46$0.47-3.1%
Next earningsThu, Oct 22·consensus EPS $0.40

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$357.0M-6.3%32.5%-14.0%$-0.58—
Q2 FY26$326.0M-9.4%30.3%13.8%$-1.73$2.6M
Q1 FY26$340.2M-0.3%32.3%11.0%$0.26$48.0M
Q4 FY25$369.0M-1.8%33.1%13.3%$-0.12$27.3M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.3B$1.3B – $1.4B$1.65$1.61 – $1.674
FY27$1.3B$1.3B – $1.3B$1.70$1.59 – $1.857
FY28$1.3B$1.3B – $1.3B$1.85$1.79 – $1.896
FY29$1.4B$1.3B – $1.4B$1.84$1.78 – $1.883
FY30$1.4B$1.3B – $1.4B$1.87$1.81 – $1.914

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.8%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-27.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 80.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.135-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyMay 14Clayton C DaleyDirector10.0K sh$118KBuyApr 23James M KiltsDirector80.0K sh$991K
+ 14 other (11 awards · 2 inkinds · 1 gift) in window

See when $SMPL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-K/AShareholder vote (amended)Apr 228-K/A — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
8-KOfficer or director changeApr 218-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
8-KOfficer or director changeFeb 28-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
3New insider — initial holdingsJan 213
8-KOfficer or director changeJan 218-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 9 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

$SMPL Investor Loss Alert: Simply Good Foods Investors may have been Misled after Expansion Issues Lead to 18% Stock Drop – Contact BFA Law if You Lost Moneyglobenewswire.com·2d agoWhy Simply Good Foods Slipped by Almost 2% on Fridayfool.com·7d agoSimply Good Foods Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Decline 6.3% Y/Yzacks.com·7d agoSimply Good Foods Q3 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·8d agoThe Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·8d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $SMPL on X in the last 7 days.

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