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SHSHOP

Shopify Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 34% YoYStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (1.8K/wk), no spike
$SHOP·$159B·Software - Application·Technology
$125.06+1.2%YTD-22.9%1Y+4.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 292 posts2026-07-10: 361 posts2026-07-11: 115 posts2026-07-12: 188 posts2026-07-13: 412 posts2026-07-14: 199 posts2026-07-15: 224 posts1,807+2%
Price updated 15h ago·X counts updated 2d ago
SHSHOP
$SHOPShopify Inc.
$125.06+1.22%1.8k posts+2%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $SHOP, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Stifel just upgraded to Buy with a $150 target on the 30%+ growth setup — the coil is loaded.

Shopify is the e-commerce platform whose stock spent 2026 in the -24% penalty box despite continued market-share gains and a 48% gross margin. A fresh Stifel upgrade to Buy at $150 (from $110) validates the compounder-into-recovery setup.

  • The core business is executing at scale: trailing gross margin held at 48%, operating margin 13%, and FCF yield 1.5% — Shopify is genuinely earning through the tape drawdown, and Stifel's $150 target embeds 'a realistic path to 30%+ revenue growth in 2026' as the base case.
  • Valuation is loaded but earnable if the growth affirms: 107x TTM P/E and 11.5x sales at $123 spot is expensive, but Shopify's forward revenue trajectory (analyst consensus in the mid-30s% range) can bring the forward P/E down to 40s quickly — and this is the specific bet Stifel's upgrade is making.
  • The tape signal is technically coiled: position at 33% of the 52-week range, TickerTrends signal at 88,000 engagements per post on 3,907 mentions, and community accumulation at $120 with plans to average down all point at a real base-forming setup ahead of the August 5 print.

The August 5 Q2 earnings are the near-term arbiter — Q2 revenue growth above 30% YoY, GMV acceleration, and any specific Shop Pay attach-rate commentary extend the coiling setup toward Stifel's $150. A GMV miss or take-rate compression stalls the tape sub-$130.

Agrees with X sentimentX is bullish upgrade momentum, cites Stifel's Buy + $150 PT (raised from $110), 'realistic path to 30%+ revenue growth in 2026,' and TickerTrends signal at 88K engagements/post on 3,907 mentions. Mechanics validate: 48% gross margin, 13% operating margin, and the compounder-into-recovery setup is real. The tension is 107x TTM P/E — the August 5 print has to affirm 30%+ growth for the Stifel setup to hold.

What to watch: The August 5 Q2 earnings. Watch Q2 revenue growth above 30% YoY, GMV acceleration, and Shop Pay attach-rate commentary. GMV miss or take-rate compression stalls the tape sub-$130; clean 30%+ growth affirmation extends toward Stifel's $150.

On the calendar: 2026-08-05 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment12 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Shopify chatter is bullish upgrade momentum. Stifel upgraded SHOP to Buy and raised the PT to $150 from $110, citing 'a realistic path to 30%+ revenue growth in 2026' and continued share-gaining playbook. Bulls describe SHOP as a high-quality compounder. Community members took starter positions at $120 with plans to average down. TickerTrends signal: 88,000 engagements per post on 3,907 mentions at 92% sentiment - the signature of a stock with a small vocal fanbase. Q2 2026 earnings on August 5 are the key catalyst around AI-infra-margin compression. Community broadly long.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $SHOP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Powers merchants' online and offline commerce across web, social, and physical storefronts with payments, fulfillment, and capital.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SHOP.

Software - Application · Technology

No material change from last week — platforms where agents expand contract value (ServiceNow, Snowflake) are re-rated upward, while tools where agents substitute human users (Adobe Creative..

What this means for $SHOP

Neutral — Powers merchants' online and offline commerce across web, social, and physical storefronts with payments, fulfillment, and capital; limited exposure means the AI agent bifurcation — contract expansion vs. user substitution is not a near-term catalyst or headwind.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-12.0%YTD
-14.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
107.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
13.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
11.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
10.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
48.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.36$0.33+10.4%
Q4 2025Feb 11, 2026$0.46$0.51-9.1%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.34$0.34+1.0%
Q2 2025Aug 6, 2025$0.35$0.29+20.2%
Next earningsWed, Aug 5·consensus EPS $0.39

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.2B+34.3%48.8%12.1%$-0.45$476.0M
Q4 FY25$3.7B+30.6%46.1%17.2%$0.58$715.0M
Q3 FY25$2.8B+31.5%48.9%12.1%$0.20$507.0M
Q2 FY25$2.7B+31.1%48.6%10.9%$0.70$429.9M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 36 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$14.4B$14.1B – $14.7B$1.80$1.62 – $1.9536
FY27$17.9B$16.3B – $18.6B$2.29$1.98 – $2.7236
FY28$22.6B$22.4B – $22.8B$3.06$2.27 – $3.6920
FY29$26.1B$24.4B – $27.6B$3.19$2.92 – $3.4411
FY30$30.7B$28.7B – $32.5B$3.83$3.50 – $4.1211

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.35%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+11.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-7.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.2B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.585-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 28-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Shopify board director and Audit Committee Chair Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah resigned effective July 2, 2026 to join the U.S. Department of Commerce; Lead Independent Director Joe Natale will chair the Audit Committee. No disagreement with Shopify was noted.

8-KShareholder voteJun 168-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) filed an 8-K on June 16, 2026 covering its 2026 Annual General Meeting results (Item 5.07) and other events (Item 8.01). Body unavailable — excerpt is cut off before disclosing specific vote tallies, director election results, or the nature of the Item 8.01 other event.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 28-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) disclosed its addition to Nasdaq Global Select Market Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 under 8-K Item 8.01 (other events). Index inclusions are significant because they trigger automatic buying from passive index funds and ETFs that track the benchmark, often resulting in increased share price and trading volume. Index providers typically announce additions in advance of the effective rebalancing date, giving institutions time to adjust their holdings. The event increases SHOP's institutional ownership base and enhances its market visibility and liquidity profile.

8-KPress release / Reg FDFeb 118-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 7 other (2 10-Ks · 1 SD · 1 routine 8-K · 1 S-8 POS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Better Buy: Amazon Stock or Shopify Stock?fool.com·1d agoShopify (SHOP) Stock Falls Amid Market Uptick: What Investors Need to Knowzacks.com·2d agoShopify Plunges 23% YTD: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock on the Dip?zacks.com·3d agoShopify (SHOP) Upgraded to Strong Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock?zacks.com·3d agoShopify's $120 Billion Revival Is Catching Shorts Off Guard247wallst.com·3d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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