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SHSHOP

Shopify Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 34% YoYStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (435/wk), no spike
$SHOP·$197B·Software - Application·Technology
$147.37-3.6%YTD-24.0%1Y+6.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 69 posts2026-08-22: 24 posts435+6%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
SHSHOP
$SHOPShopify Inc.
$147.37-3.62%435 posts+6%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $SHOP, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-29

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Shopify's Affirm-in-Australia rollout plus 34% revenue growth — real compounder digesting the AI-disruption fear.

Shopify is the largest independent e-commerce platform — merchant-facing storefront, checkout, payments, capital, and now an AI-agent layer. The setup is a compounder pausing under a specific narrative overhang.

  • The revenue trajectory is genuinely strong: Q1 revenue grew 34% YoY to $3.17B, Q2 beat at $3.54B, and the sell side models revenue climbing to ~$14.6B this year and ~$18B in 2027 — the fundamental thesis (mid-market and enterprise upmarket motion, GMV growing above 20%) is intact and accelerating slightly.
  • The product expansion is landing: the Affirm Shop Pay Installments launch in Australia is Affirm's first international market via Shopify (a real distribution unlock for BNPL globally), and CEO Tobi's public framing of Shopify "at the edge of AI adoption" is the counter-narrative to the "AI will destroy this" bear thesis.
  • Insider activity is silent, governance flagged: no meaningful open-market insider trades in the sample, and Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah's July 2 resignation from the board to join the US Department of Commerce was routine (Joe Natale took over Audit Committee chair) — not a red flag, just an inbound board refresh.

The setup is a real-business compounder priced at 107x trailing earnings with a 34% growth trajectory — the November 3 print is the referee, and the market needs GMV growth staying above 20%, updated Shop Pay Installments international traction, and any AI-agent monetization color. A guide-in-line print with strong GMV keeps the coil loading up; a growth slip below 25% or a soft take-rate would push the stock back toward the 200-day near $131.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on the AFRM Shop Pay Installments Australia launch, strong Q3 revenue outlook, and CEO Tobi at the edge of AI adoption is consistent with the filings and press releases. The "consolidating at strong support with double from here" framing is anchored on the 34% Q1 revenue growth and $3.54B Q2 print. The single "AI will destroy this" bear voice the crowd flags is fair to price against at 107x trailing earnings.

What to watch: The November 3 Q3 earnings — need GMV growth staying above 20%, Shop Pay Installments international traction updates, and any AI-agent monetization color. A guide-in-line print with strong GMV keeps the coil loading up; a growth slip below 25% or a soft take-rate pushes the stock back toward the 200-day near $131.

On the calendar: 2026-11-03 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment34 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Software bulls are running the tape, celebrating a Shop Pay Installments launch with Affirm in Australia, AI as a commerce tool rather than a threat, and 'SaaS isn't dead' rotation calls. A retail buyer picks up 5,000 shares on the underestimated growth thesis and Cathie Wood's trims read as noise. Chart posters flag a mini-flag setup and $160 as the key gamma level for further upside.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $SHOP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Powers merchants' online and offline commerce across web, social, and physical storefronts with payments, fulfillment, and capital.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SHOP.

Software - Application · Technology

SaaS multiples remain compressed as rate-sensitive valuations weigh on pure-play software; customers are lengthening deal cycles outside of AI-native workloads. AI co-pilot upsell is the only clear near-term catalyst — companies without it are treading water.

What this means for $SHOP

Direct beneficiary — AI-native product or platform captures spend from the same capex cycle driving the industry; Powers merchants' online and offline commerce across web, social, and physical storefronts with payments, fulfillment, a.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-4.2%YTD
+2.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
107.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
13.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
11.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
10.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
48.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$0.42$0.40+5.7%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.36$0.33+10.4%
Q4 2025Feb 11, 2026$0.46$0.51-9.1%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.34$0.34+1.0%
Next earningsTue, Nov 3·consensus EPS $0.44

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.2B+34.3%48.8%12.1%$-0.45$476.0M
Q4 FY25$3.7B+30.6%46.1%17.2%$0.58$715.0M
Q3 FY25$2.8B+31.5%48.9%12.1%$0.20$507.0M
Q2 FY25$2.7B+31.1%48.6%10.9%$0.70$429.9M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 37 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$14.6B$14.2B – $14.8B$1.83$1.65 – $1.9837
FY27$18.1B$16.4B – $18.8B$2.33$2.02 – $2.7737
FY28$22.8B$20.5B – $29.1B$3.19$2.34 – $3.8021
FY29$26.3B$24.3B – $29.2B$3.44$3.11 – $3.9310
FY30$31.0B$28.7B – $34.3B$4.10$3.70 – $4.6710

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.67%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+16.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+16.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.2B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.595-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 28-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Shopify board director and Audit Committee Chair Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah resigned effective July 2, 2026 to join the U.S. Department of Commerce; Lead Independent Director Joe Natale will chair the Audit Committee. No disagreement with Shopify was noted.

8-KShareholder voteJun 168-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) filed an 8-K on June 16, 2026 covering its 2026 Annual General Meeting results (Item 5.07) and other events (Item 8.01). Body unavailable — excerpt is cut off before disclosing specific vote tallies, director election results, or the nature of the Item 8.01 other event.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 28-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) disclosed its addition to Nasdaq Global Select Market Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 under 8-K Item 8.01 (other events). Index inclusions are significant because they trigger automatic buying from passive index funds and ETFs that track the benchmark, often resulting in increased share price and trading volume. Index providers typically announce additions in advance of the effective rebalancing date, giving institutions time to adjust their holdings. The event increases SHOP's institutional ownership base and enhances its market visibility and liquidity profile.

+ 9 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 13G · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Will AI Make Shopify Obsolete? Why This Beaten-Down SaaS Stock Could Be a Long-Term Winnerfool.com·2d agoI'm Not Buying Shopify Stock at These Levelsfool.com·3d agoSHOP vs. ADBE: Which Stock Has the Edge in AI-Driven Ecommerce?zacks.com·3d agoInside Affirm's Stock Rally: Strong Credit Performance and Shopify Expansion Drive Big Gainsbenzinga.com·3d agoAffirm and Shopify Take Shop Pay Installments to Australiapymnts.com·4d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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