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SHSHOP

Shopify Inc.

Rising onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normBacked by solid revenue growthPrice and volume picking up
$SHOP·$220B·Software - Application·Technology
$169.52-4.8%YTD-8.6%1Y+8.3%
Price updated 8h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
SHSHOP
$SHOPShopify Inc.
$169.52-4.84%969 posts1.7×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $SHOP on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

969X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1.7×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $SHOP's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's running louder than usual, louder than 96% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data11 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-16

Shopify is drawing a Muse-driven long thesis after Meta's launch made Shopify merchants directly discoverable and shoppable inside Muse without installation or signup. Piper's desk flags $SHOP as the agentic-commerce infrastructure winner; Baird's desk projects >30% top-line growth in 2027 and calls the selloff an opportunity. Bulls also note the $75 area as a potential accumulation zone and Bessemer's 2010 memo as the analog. Nobody in the window is short.

Read what X is saying about $SHOP

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $SHOP — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Agentic-commerce infrastructure winner — the Meta Muse integration quietly made every merchant discoverable.

Shopify is the dominant SMB-to-mid-market e-commerce platform — the merchant side of the aisle to Amazon's marketplace side — now positioning as the agentic-commerce infrastructure layer. The stock is coiling around the 50-day after Meta's Muse launch made every Shopify merchant directly shoppable inside the AI agent.

  • The growth story is actually accelerating: revenue grew 34% YoY to $3.17B last quarter at 12% operating margin, and Baird's desk models >30% top-line growth in 2027 — mechanics that back the hot-momentum narrative without needing it.
  • The Meta Muse integration is a real moat move: Shopify merchants are now discoverable and transactable inside the AI agent without installation or signup, which is the kind of distribution step-up Amazon can't easily replicate because it's built around first-party marketplace, not open-web commerce.
  • No meaningful insider selling, and the Klaviyo 13D/A at 33.4M shares (filed Aug 5) shows Shopify continues to deepen its stake in the attached commerce-martech stack rather than diluting focus.

The coil breaks higher if Nov 3 earnings confirm GMV acceleration above 25% YoY and Shopify Payments penetration keeps extending. A soft take-rate print, or any sign that Amazon's competing agent push (which the Shopify-vs-Amazon "silent war" piece names) is clawing back SMB mindshare, is what tips this lower.

Agrees with X sentimentX bulls citing Muse, Piper's agentic-commerce winner call, and Baird's >30% 2027 growth are reading the signals correctly — the Bessemer 2010 memo analog is a stretch (SHOP is 15x bigger now), but the fundamental read on distribution is right.

What to watch: Nov 3 earnings — GMV growth (needs to clear 25% YoY) and Shopify Payments take-rate. A GMV miss or a Payments take-rate compression is what breaks the coil lower; a strong print plus Muse-attributed commentary is what breaks it higher.

On the calendar: 2026-11-03 — Q3 FY26 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $SHOP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Powers merchants' online and offline commerce across web, social, and physical storefronts with payments, fulfillment, and capital.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SHOP.

Software - Application · Technology

No material change from last week — Adobe Q3 lifted guidance with triple-digit AI-first ARR, validating the AI upsell bifurcation: vendors embedding AI agents into core workflows (NOW, CRM, SAP, WDAY, TEAM, ADBE) are re-accelerating whi.

What this means for $SHOP

Partial — Powers merchants' online and offline commerce across web, social, and physical storefronts with payments, fulfillment, and capital.; AI feature integration is the primary renewal variable in enterprise SaaS; execution on AI roadmap determines re-rating potential.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
+4.2%YTD
-7.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
107.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
13.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
11.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
10.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
48.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$0.42$0.40+5.7%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.36$0.33+10.4%
Q4 2025Feb 11, 2026$0.46$0.51-9.1%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.34$0.34+1.0%
Next earningsTue, Nov 3·consensus EPS $0.46

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.2B+34.3%48.8%12.1%$-0.45$476.0M
Q4 FY25$3.7B+30.6%46.1%17.2%$0.58$715.0M
Q3 FY25$2.8B+31.5%48.9%12.1%$0.20$507.0M
Q2 FY25$2.7B+31.1%48.6%10.9%$0.70$429.9M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 38 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$15.1B$14.7B – $15.3B$1.88$1.79 – $1.9938
FY27$19.0B$17.9B – $19.7B$2.43$2.04 – $3.0038
FY28$23.9B$22.3B – $29.2B$3.31$2.53 – $4.0724
FY29$28.6B$27.1B – $31.0B$4.12$3.84 – $4.5822
FY30$33.7B$32.0B – $36.6B$5.05$4.71 – $5.6114

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.86%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+13.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+30.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentAug 31SC 13D/A
AI summary

Shopify Inc., through its subsidiary Shopify Strategic Holdings 3 (a Canadian entity), filed Amendment No. 4 to its Schedule 13D on Klaviyo, Inc. on August 5, 2026, reporting beneficial ownership of 33,405,047 shares of Klaviyo Series A Common Stock, representing approximately 20.83% of the class. The amendment was triggered by the vesting of approximately 1,377,529 warrants in quarterly tranches (January, April, July 2026 plus upcoming), converting warrant positions into shares. With ~20.8% ownership, Shopify remains Klaviyo's largest external shareholder; the quarterly warrant conversions represent steady accumulation rather than disposition of its strategic stake in this email marketing platform.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 28-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Shopify board director and Audit Committee Chair Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah resigned effective July 2, 2026 to join the U.S. Department of Commerce; Lead Independent Director Joe Natale will chair the Audit Committee. No disagreement with Shopify was noted.

8-KShareholder voteJun 168-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) filed an 8-K on June 16, 2026 covering its 2026 Annual General Meeting results (Item 5.07) and other events (Item 8.01). Body unavailable — excerpt is cut off before disclosing specific vote tallies, director election results, or the nature of the Item 8.01 other event.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 28-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) disclosed its addition to Nasdaq Global Select Market Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 under 8-K Item 8.01 (other events). Index inclusions are significant because they trigger automatic buying from passive index funds and ETFs that track the benchmark, often resulting in increased share price and trading volume. Index providers typically announce additions in advance of the effective rebalancing date, giving institutions time to adjust their holdings. The event increases SHOP's institutional ownership base and enhances its market visibility and liquidity profile.

+ 9 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 13G · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Shopify Price Hikes Signal Pricing Power as JPMorgan Keeps $200 Bullish Targetbenzinga.com·14h agoWhy Investors Need to Take Advantage of These 2 Computer and Technology Stocks Nowzacks.com·19h agoWould You Have Held Shopify Through an 86.6% Crash? Here's What Happened Next247wallst.com·2d agoeBay Jumps 5% on Takeover Speculation; Etsy Rallies 7%, Shopify Holds Flat247wallst.com·2d agoAI Agents Can Already Pay in Crypto. Can a Website Tell Who They’re Working For?247wallst.com·2d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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