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NCNCMI

National CineMedia, Inc.

$NCMI·$251M·Advertising Agencies·Communication Services
$2.86+6.7%1Y-35.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-07: 0 posts2026-08-08: 0 posts2026-08-09: 4 posts2026-08-10: 1 posts2026-08-11: 10 posts2026-08-12: 44 posts2026-08-13: 16 posts75
Price updated 1d ago·X counts updated 2d ago
NCNCMI
$NCMINational CineMedia, Inc.
$2.86+6.72%75 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $NCMI, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-08-15

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

National CineMedia announced $275M Captivate acquisition — expands from cinema ads to offices/apartments, Q2 miss, -35% YoY, +6.7% today.

National CineMedia is the cinema advertising platform — the equity has been a broken-story small-cap now inflecting on the specific Captivate acquisition that transforms the business model.

  • The $275M Captivate acquisition (8/11) is the transformational event: expands NCMI from movie theater ads to offices and apartment buildings — that's the specific out-of-home-advertising TAM expansion the equity needed.
  • Q2 was a miss: EPS -$0.10 vs -$0.085 estimate (-18%), revenue $58.4M vs $59.3M — the operational metrics remain pressured, but the acquisition narrative dominates.
  • Position at 24% of 52w with stock -23% below 50d MA and -22% below 200d MA — real drawdown, but today's +6.7% suggests the deal-narrative is starting to work.
  • Fundamentals show margin fragility: 54% gross margin and -7% op margin at $58M/quarter revenue — margins improving from deeper losses in prior quarter but still negative.
  • Analysts project rev $241M FY26 → $277M FY28 with EPS -$0.21 → +$0.10 — path to profitability by FY28. Volume 1.8x normal shows real institutional interest in deal-transformation thesis.

October 29 is the next print — a fifth consecutive quarter of Captivate integration commentary extends the run; any specific integration setback or a cinema-ad-market deterioration is the invalidator. The real risk on a $251M cap post -35% YoY is that the Captivate deal has to convert quickly into pro-forma revenue growth to sustain the tape.

What to watch: October 29 Q3 print — Captivate integration commentary and pro-forma revenue guide. A fifth beat plus integration progress extends the run; integration setback or cinema-ad deterioration is the invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-10-29 — Q3 earnings

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. The company engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies. It also sells digital advertising, including through NCM Boost, a data, insights and analytics platform that utilizes data; NCM Boost, a audience accelerator digital product; NCM Boomerang, retargeting solution designed to amplify post-theatre engagement; NCM Bullseye, an AI-generated creative to deliver dynamic and hyper-localized messaging; and NCM Blueprint, a real-time renovation permit data to identify homeowners who are actively engaged in remodelling projects. It offers its services to national and local sales groups. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Advertising Agencies sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $NCMI.

Advertising Agencies · Communication Services

No material change from last week — The Trade Desk's independent DSP positioning faces structural pressure from Amazon's ad tech expansion while AI-powered buying tools commoditize parts of the..

Industry benchmark

4-name peer basket
-7.9%YTD
+6.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-28.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-27.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-7.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-2.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
54.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 11, 2026$-0.10$-0.09-17.6%
Q1 2026May 12, 2026$-0.31$-0.26-19.2%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$0.28$0.25+12.0%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$0.02$-0.03+156.6%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $0.03

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$58.4M+12.7%93.7%-21.9%$-0.11$-18.9M
Q1 FY26$34.0M-2.6%-12.1%-79.1%$-0.31$17.8M
Q4 FY25$93.2M+8.0%60.1%25.5%$0.31$6.5M
Q3 FY25$63.4M+1.6%44.0%-2.8%$0.02$-500K

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 3 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$241.0M$240.2M – $242.2M-$0.21-$0.22 – -$0.203
FY27$261.8M$253.4M – $275.6M-$0.07-$0.27 – $0.173
FY28$276.9M$268.1M – $285.3M$0.10$0.05 – $0.153
FY29$295.8M$291.6M – $300.0M$0.21$0.19 – $0.242

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.24%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-23.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-21.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 65.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.445-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 3Ronnie Y. NgCFO1.0K sh$4KSellAug 3Thomas F. LesinskiCEO50.6K sh$212KSellJul 2Maria Vg WoodsChief Legal Officer12.1K sh$45KSellJul 2Ronnie Y. NgCFO32.3K sh$122KSellJul 2Thomas F. LesinskiCEO70.2K sh$265KSellJun 26Thomas F. LesinskiCEO28.9K sh$105KSellJun 25Thomas F. LesinskiCEO46.1K sh$164KSellJun 22Ronnie Y. NgCFO19.0K sh$65KSellMay 4Maria Vg WoodsChief Legal Officer5.5K sh$19KSellMay 4Ronnie Y. NgCFO12.9K sh$45K
1–10 of 15
+ 22 other (13 exempts · 9 awards) in window

See when $NCMI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementAug 118-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
8-KShareholder voteMay 128-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
3New insider — initial holdingsMay 113
8-KCharter amendmentMar 278-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment
+ 14 other (5 13Gs · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

National CineMedia Posts Downbeat Q2 Results, Joins Borr Drilling, AbCellera Biologics And Other Big Stocks Moving Lower In Wednesday's Pre-Market Sessionbenzinga.com·4d agoNational CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·4d agoNational CineMedia Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·4d agoNational CineMedia (NCMI) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimateszacks.com·4d agoNational CineMedia To Acquire Captivate For $275M, Expands From Movie Theater Ads To Offices, Apartment Buildingsdeadline.com·4d ago

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