TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$MDGL
MDMDGL

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

$MDGL·$12B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$540.03+1.2%YTD-12.8%1Y+23.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 2 posts25+9%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
MDMDGL
$MDGLMadrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$540.03+1.17%25 posts+9%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MDGL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-20

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

First-to-market MASH drug ramping into a real franchise — the model still shows losses, but the revenue slope is the whole story.

Madrigal is a single-drug biotech built around Rezdiffra (resmetirom), the only FDA-approved therapy for MASH — the fatty-liver disease that affects millions of US adults and had no approved treatment before 2024. The drug is now on a ~$1.3B annualized revenue run-rate roughly two years after launch, one of the faster specialty-drug ramps in recent memory.

  • The revenue ramp is doing the work: Q1 revenue of $311M was up 127% year-on-year and the past four quarters have run 130-360% growth — Rezdiffra is compounding on hepatology-office adoption, not a one-off launch bump, and the $1.3B run-rate tracks the sell-side FY26 estimate of $1.5B.
  • The margin story arrives with scale: gross margin is already 93%, but SG&A and R&D still run above revenue, so operating margin is minus 28% — every incremental script drops through against a mostly fixed cost stack, which is why the FY28 consensus EPS of $27 isn't a stretch if the ramp holds.
  • The GLP-1 threat is overstated: hepatologists and GIs write less than 1% of Wegovy prescriptions for MASH, preferring targeted liver-directed therapy — real evidence that GLP-1s aren't eating Rezdiffra's market despite the popular narrative.

Trajectory is accelerating with pediatric MASH trials extending the population and short interest at 2023 lows; the Nov 3 print needs to keep the sequential ramp intact — a flat quarter-on-quarter is the fast tell that peak penetration is closer than modeled.

Agrees with X sentimentX's read on the GLP-1 competition (Wegovy at less than 1% of MASH scripts) and the short-interest decline to 2023 lows is on-tape — Madrigal's competitive moat inside hepatology is real, and short covering is a mechanical tailwind. The J&J board addition also validates the institutional-maturation angle.

What to watch: Nov 3 Q3 earnings — sequential Rezdiffra revenue growth above $50M quarter-on-quarter keeps the ramp story intact; a sequential stall or downward inflection reveals the penetration curve is closer to peak than modeled.

On the calendar: 2026-11-03 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-18

Chatter is bullish on Madrigal Pharmaceuticals. Fresh news includes a new Phase 2a multi-center open-label multiple-ascending-dose study testing Rezdiffra (resmetirom) in pediatric MASH — extending the indication and long-term addressable market. A J&J executive was added to the board, and short interest is described as continuing to come down to its lowest since 2023. Bulls flag that hepatologists and GIs account for less than 1% of Wegovy MASH prescriptions after a year, preferring targeted liver-directed therapy — a competitive read for Madrigal.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MDGL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sells Rezdiffra, the first approved thyroid receptor beta agonist for NASH/MASH liver disease treatment.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MDGL.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

GLP-1 oral formulation competition — emerging clinical data from pipeline challengers — is the central bifurcation: platform holders (LLY, NVO) defend on efficacy breadth while precision oncology names decouple entirely. FDA catalyst cadence over the next 60 days sets the near-term tone.

What this means for $MDGL

Partial — fee-based midstream revenue has limited direct commodity price exposure but volume ties to upstream production activity.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+12.1%YTD
+48.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-45.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-35.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-27.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-2.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
9.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-50.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
93.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$-1.99$-2.68+25.7%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$-3.25$-3.61+10.0%
Q4 2025Feb 19, 2026$-2.57$0.04-6525.0%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$-5.08$-2.04-149.4%
Next earningsTue, Nov 3·consensus EPS $-0.86

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$311.3M+126.8%91.4%-29.8%$-3.25$-171.3M
Q4 FY25$321.1M+210.8%92.4%-18.6%$-2.57$-133.1M
Q3 FY25$287.3M+362.0%93.7%-39.7%$-5.08$79.0M
Q2 FY25$212.8M+1353.8%95.7%-22.2%$-1.90$-47.1M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.5B$1.5B – $1.5B-$6.77-$8.62 – -$5.739
FY27$2.2B$1.9B – $2.4B$8.07$1.96 – $10.3611
FY28$3.0B$2.7B – $3.5B$27.24$14.96 – $42.6311
FY29$4.0B$3.7B – $4.3B$44.68$39.83 – $49.615
FY30$5.0B$4.6B – $5.5B$64.65$57.63 – $71.785

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.66%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+2.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+4.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 21.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-1.005-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 17Shannon T KelleyGeneral Counsel664 sh$342KSellJul 20Sibold William JohnCEO2.5K sh$1.4MSellJun 1David SoergelChief Medical Officer1.0K sh$517KSellMay 22Richard S LevyDirector5.7K sh$2.9MSellMay 18David SoergelChief Medical Officer844 sh$435KSellMar 6Sibold William JohnCEO1.7K sh$718KSellMar 6Shannon T KelleyGeneral Counsel360 sh$155KSellMar 6Carole HuntsmanChief Commercial Officer419 sh$181KSellMar 6Rebecca TaubDirector491 sh$212KSellMar 6Mardi DierCFO1.4K sh$595K
+ 8 other (7 awards · 1 exempt) in window

See when $MDGL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 183
AI summary

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) filed a Form 3 for John C. Reed, a newly appointed Director. Reed beneficially owns no securities at the time of initial filing, with derivative security details cut off in the available excerpt. The Form 3 establishes his reporting-person status at the biotech focused on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease treatments.

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 128-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) expanded its Board of Directors from eight to nine members effective August 11, 2026, electing John C. Reed, M.D., Ph.D. as a Class II director through the 2027 annual meeting. Dr. Reed was also appointed to the Science and Technology Committee and will receive annual cash compensation of $60,000 ($50K board + $10K committee) plus an initial equity grant of $675,000 (50% options / 50% RSUs) under the 2026 Stock Plan vesting over two years. The Company also updated its corporate presentation (Item 7.01). This is a routine board expansion adding scientific expertise at a pharmaceutical company with commercial-stage products.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. at its June 17, 2026 annual meeting approved three new equity plans: the 2026 Stock Plan, the 2026 Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP), and a Nonqualified Deferred Compensation Plan for executives and non-employee directors. Shareholders also voted on director elections and other routine proposals. The 2026 Stock Plan and ESPP approvals are dilutive events — they authorize new equity issuances to employees and directors. These are standard post-commercial-launch equity incentive actions consistent with Madrigal's commercialization of Rezdiffra (resmetirom) for NASH.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 288-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

MDGL disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-28). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 12 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDGL) Given Consensus Rating of “Moderate Buy” by Analystsdefenseworld.net·1d agoHere's Exactly What It Will Take for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Stock to Take Offfool.com·7d agoAllworth Financial LP Buys New Position in Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. $MDGLdefenseworld.net·10d agoMadrigal Pharmaceuticals Announces Grants of Inducement Awards under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5635(c)(4)globenewswire.com·11d agoMadrigal’s Rezdiffra Hits $1.3B Run Rate as MASH Pipeline Expandsdefenseworld.net·15d ago

More in Biotechnology

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$MRNA$ALT$AURA$IOVA$NWBO$SLS$AMLX$ABCL
Voices on X · top 3 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport