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MDMDGL

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

$MDGL·$12B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$545.53-0.9%YTD-6.3%1Y+58.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 8 posts2026-07-10: 2 posts2026-07-11: 2 posts2026-07-12: 2 posts2026-07-13: 14 posts2026-07-14: 4 posts2026-07-15: 3 posts37-15%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
MDMDGL
$MDGLMadrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$545.53-0.86%37 posts-15%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MDGL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-15

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

MASH-liver pure-play with 127% revenue growth on Rezdiffra — Aug 4 print continues the buyout-target speculation.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals commercializes Rezdiffra, the first FDA-approved treatment for MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, formerly NASH). It's a specialty biopharma with a specific commercial-stage franchise and buyout speculation.

Where the setup lands:

  • Growth is genuinely explosive: Q1 revenue grew 127% year-over-year to $311M with 91% gross margin — reflecting the Rezdiffra commercial ramp, and the last three EPS surprises averaged -2,155% (last was 10% beat), meaning consensus is chronically misjudging the operating expense timing.
  • The valuation reflects the multi-year commercial trajectory: 10x sales for a rare specialty-pharma with a dominant position in a growing MASH market — combined with continued negative operating margin as launch expenses land, the equity is priced on eventual profitability plus M&A optionality.
  • The buyout-speculation framing is the specific catalyst: bulls describe unusual quiet from the company despite ample newsflow, holders trimming into expected takeout, and $650-$700 GLP-synergy buyout targeting — the recent Rezdiffra IP portfolio strengthening (three new patents) fits with pre-buyout positioning.

Aug 4 earnings decides direction: continued 100%+ revenue growth combined with any specific commentary on Rezdiffra prescription trajectory and payer coverage progress would push shares toward $600, while any soft launch-progress commentary or lack of takeover-speculation follow-through would confirm the current 76%-of-52w-range setup and pull shares back to $480.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the pre-buyout framing — the unusual quiet from the company despite ample newsflow, holders trimming into expected takeout, and $650-$700 GLP-synergy buyout targeting are all consistent with the setup. The three-new-patents IP portfolio strengthening fits with pre-M&A positioning.

What to watch: Aug 4 earnings: Rezdiffra prescription growth, payer coverage progress, and any M&A-related commentary. Soft launch progress or no takeover follow-through pulls shares to $480.

On the calendar: 2026-08-04 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Madrigal chatter is bullish takeout speculation. Community sees MDGL 'clearly shaping out for a buyout soon' - company silent since last earnings readout despite ample PR-worthy news, adding to the takeout thesis. Traders trimming positions ahead of the deal. MDGL settling back into strength in $500s with $650-700 buyout target. Community models MDGL as immediate billion-dollar bolt-on with GLP-drug synergies. Community broadly long.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MDGL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sells Rezdiffra, the first approved thyroid receptor beta agonist for NASH/MASH liver disease treatment.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MDGL.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

No material change from last week — ADA conference oral formulation competition is bifurcating biotech multiples between GLP-1 platform holders and precision oncology innovators.

What this means for $MDGL

Direct beneficiary — Sells Rezdiffra, the first approved thyroid receptor beta agonist for NASH/MASH liver disease treatment; core operations sit in the path of the GLP-1 pipeline bifurcation and ADA oral formulation competition.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+11.7%YTD
+44.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-45.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-35.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-27.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-2.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
9.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-50.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
93.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$-3.25$-3.61+10.0%
Q4 2025Feb 19, 2026$-2.57$0.04-6525.0%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$-5.08$-2.04-149.4%
Q2 2025Aug 5, 2025$-1.90$-3.48+45.4%
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $-2.66

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$311.3M+126.8%91.4%-29.8%$-3.25$-171.3M
Q4 FY25$321.1M+210.8%92.4%-18.6%$-2.57$-133.1M
Q3 FY25$287.3M+362.0%93.7%-39.7%$-5.08$79.0M
Q2 FY25$212.8M+1353.8%95.7%-22.2%$-1.90$-47.1M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.5B$1.5B – $1.5B-$7.21-$9.38 – -$5.8711
FY27$2.2B$1.9B – $2.4B$9.93$2.65 – $13.9811
FY28$3.0B$3.0B – $3.0B$26.44$16.67 – $42.3311
FY29$4.0B$3.7B – $4.4B$45.14$39.88 – $51.195
FY30$5.1B$4.6B – $5.6B$64.89$57.32 – $73.585

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.79%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+8.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 21.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-1.065-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 1David SoergelChief Medical Officer1.0K sh$517KSellMay 22Richard S LevyDirector5.7K sh$2.9MSellMay 18David SoergelChief Medical Officer844 sh$435KSellMar 6Sibold William JohnCEO1.7K sh$718KSellMar 6Shannon T KelleyGeneral Counsel360 sh$155KSellMar 6Mardi DierCFO2.0K sh$854KSellMar 6Carole HuntsmanChief Commercial Officer419 sh$181KSellMar 6Rebecca TaubDirector491 sh$212KSellMar 2Mardi DierCFO1.2K sh$505KSellJan 26Sibold William JohnCEO1.6K sh$777K
1–10 of 14
+ 13 other (11 awards · 2 exempts) in window

See when $MDGL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. at its June 17, 2026 annual meeting approved three new equity plans: the 2026 Stock Plan, the 2026 Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP), and a Nonqualified Deferred Compensation Plan for executives and non-employee directors. Shareholders also voted on director elections and other routine proposals. The 2026 Stock Plan and ESPP approvals are dilutive events — they authorize new equity issuances to employees and directors. These are standard post-commercial-launch equity incentive actions consistent with Madrigal's commercialization of Rezdiffra (resmetirom) for NASH.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 288-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

MDGL disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-28). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

8-KMaterial agreementJan 308-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
3New insider — initial holdingsJan 203
+ 13 other (5 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals to Release Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Host Webcast on July 30, 2026globenewswire.com·21h agoMadrigal Pharmaceuticals Announces Three New Resmetirom Patents, Strengthening IP Portfolioglobenewswire.com·4d ago3 Under-the-Radar Stocks to Buy and Holdfool.com·7d agoMadrigal Pharmaceuticals Announces Grants of Inducement Awards under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5635(c)(4)globenewswire.com·11d agoRibo y Madrigal alcanzan un primer hito importante en el avance de nuevas terapias con siRNA para MASHprnewswire.com·15d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $MDGL on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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