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TickerTalks›$LLY
LLLLY

Eli Lilly and Company

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 56% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (5.0K/wk), no spike
$LLY·$1.1T·Drug Manufacturers - General·Healthcare
$1179.09+0.8%YTD+9.5%1Y+54.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 762 posts2026-07-11: 857 posts2026-07-12: 547 posts2026-07-13: 686 posts2026-07-14: 714 posts2026-07-15: 545 posts2026-07-16: 814 posts4,987-3%
Price updated 2h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
LLLLY
$LLYEli Lilly and Company
$1,179.09+0.85%5.0k posts-3%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $LLY, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Trillion-dollar GLP-1 franchise, now losing the oral-obesity race to Novo — the tape is waiting to see if retatrutide fixes it.

Eli Lilly is the trillion-dollar pharma leader in GLP-1 obesity drugs — Zepbound and Mounjaro are the injectable franchise that took the crown from Novo. Now the oral-pill race is the next battleground, and early prescription data suggests Lilly is losing it.

  • Revenue grew 56% YoY to $19.8B last quarter and EPS beat consensus by 23% — the underlying franchise is compounding faster than a mega-cap this size has any right to.
  • Trades at 40x TTM earnings on a 46% operating margin business with 32% ROIC — a premium for the growth, but not unreasonable if the injectable franchise stays intact through the pill era.
  • Oral Wegovy (Novo) is running 153,050 weekly prescriptions vs Lilly's Foundayo at 19,549 in week 13 — Jefferies flagged the launch as 'muted,' and the market is starting to price a real risk that the pill share war is already lost.
  • Retatrutide, the next-gen triple-agonist, is the reset lever — it isn't priced into estimates yet and phase-3 readouts are the swing factor for the second half.
  • The Bloomberg-reported AtaiBeckley acquisition (psychedelic drugmaker) is a small strategic bolt-on that signals the pipeline is broadening beyond GLP-1s.

August 5 earnings decides how bad the oral-pill loss actually looks in the guide — an unchanged FY26 outlook plus retatrutide milestones intact keeps the multiple; a walked-back Foundayo trajectory is where the P/E compresses back toward 30x. The obesity franchise is real, but the tape is waking up to the risk that the injectable moat isn't infinite.

Agrees with X sentimentThe mixed X read is honest: the oral-Wegovy prescription gap is real and it does put the pill race in play, and retatrutide is genuinely the swing factor the crowd is right to keep watching. The 'popping from here or pulling back to the 20 EMA' framing captures the setup — August 5 decides which.

What to watch: Aug 5 Q2 earnings — need FY26 guide held and an unchanged retatrutide timeline. A Foundayo walk-back plus soft guide is where the 40x multiple compresses toward 30x.

On the calendar: 2026-08-05 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment37 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

Eli Lilly headlines the sample with a $2.8B cash plus up-to-$1B CVR acquisition of psychedelic drugmaker AtaiBeckley, its biggest signal yet that it will use legacy drug-discovery cash flows to expand into neuropsychiatry, mental health and AI infrastructure (a reported $5B private cluster). The M&A activity is broadly cheered as long-term positioning. The clear bearish thread is competitive: Novo Nordisk's Wegovy oral pill just won EU approval and IQVIA prescription data through early July shows Foundayo continuing to lose ground week over week. The stock lost its 20-EMA in the sample, and several posts flag Novo's distribution advantage via partners like Hims as the reason.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $LLY

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound for diabetes and obesity, plus Kisunla for Alzheimer's, with massive manufacturing expansion.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Drug Manufacturers - General sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LLY.

Drug Manufacturers - General · Healthcare

No material change from last week — oral semaglutide versus injectable Zepbound, with Amgen, Pfizer, and AZ all presenting obesity pipeline data.

What this means for $LLY

Direct beneficiary — Makes GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound for diabetes and obesity, plus Kisunla for Alzheimer's, with massive manufacturing expansion; the business model is a direct conduit for the oral GLP-1 and obesity pipeline expansion and competition.

Top industry ETF

$IHEiShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF
+18.7%YTD
+49.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
40.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
32.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
45.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
14.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
101%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
83.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$8.55$6.97+22.7%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$7.54$6.91+9.1%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$7.02$5.69+23.4%
Q2 2025Aug 7, 2025$6.31$5.60+12.7%
Next earningsWed, Aug 5·consensus EPS $7.72

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$19.8B+55.5%81.9%44.7%$8.27$3.0B
Q4 FY25$19.3B+42.6%85.1%45.5%$7.41$677.9M
Q3 FY25$17.6B+53.9%82.9%47.6%$6.22$8.6B
Q2 FY25$15.6B+37.6%84.3%45.8%$6.30$1.3B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 23 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$85.2B$83.1B – $88.2B$36.56$28.24 – $40.7219
FY27$99.1B$93.8B – $102.4B$44.91$41.83 – $46.5320
FY28$111.0B$111.0B – $111.0B$51.88$46.10 – $58.5823
FY29$121.0B$114.8B – $129.3B$58.41$54.55 – $63.6611
FY30$130.7B$124.1B – $139.8B$64.38$60.12 – $70.1711

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.87%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+5.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+16.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 847.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.515-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 10Ilya YuffaEVP&Pres, LLY USA&Global Capab2.5K sh$2.9MSellMay 6Lilly Endowment IncFormer 10% Shareholder15.8K sh$15.8M
+ 49 other (34 awards · 7 inkinds · 7 exempts · 1 gift) in window

See when $LLY insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteMay 78-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

LLY held its annual meeting of stockholders around 2026-05-07 (8-K Item 5.07). Stockholders elected 2 directors to the board. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

+ 17 other (4 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Stock Market Today, July 16: AtaiBeckley Surges on Eli Lilly Acquisition Worth Up To $3.8 Billionfool.com·1d agoAtaiBeckley stock is soaring, and it has Eli Lilly to thankinvezz.com·1d agoEli Lilly Buys Psychedelics Maker Atai Beckley for $2.8 Billion to Develop DMT-Like Depression Drug247wallst.com·1d agoWhy Is GH Research Stock Trading Higher on Thursday?benzinga.com·2d agoAtaiBeckley Shares Surge as Eli Lilly Seals $3.8B Acquisition Dealbenzinga.com·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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