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GRGRPN

Groupon, Inc.

$GRPN·$951M·Internet Content & Information·Communication Services
$19.53+0.3%YTD+53.3%1Y-26.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-19: 6 posts2026-08-20: 19 posts2026-08-21: 7 posts2026-08-22: 4 posts2026-08-23: 1 posts63-6%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
GRGRPN
$GRPNGroupon, Inc.
$19.53+0.31%63 posts-6%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $GRPN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-28

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Groupon is up 53% YTD and a new 10%+ beneficial owner just filed — the AI-personalization marketplace-reset thesis is what the crowd is trading.

Groupon runs the discount-marketplace platform where consumers buy discounted local experiences and goods. Down 26% over twelve months (base effect from prior year's decline) but up 53% YTD as the AI-driven marketplace-reset thesis reconnected.

What's driving the coil:

  • The load-bearing catalyst is a new 10%+ beneficial owner filing (Form 3 on 8/5) plus Pale Fire Capital's SC 13D/A disclosing 10.18M shared voting/dispositive shares — that's material shareholder alignment. Bank of America increased holdings on 8/26.
  • The August 25 investor update on 'AI, Personalization Drive Marketplace Reset' plus the CEO/CFO X Spaces Q&A confirms real strategic execution — Groupon is trying to be the AI-personalized-discount marketplace, and if that works, the model reboots.
  • Q1 revenue was $117M essentially flat YoY at 90% gross margin, and Q2 EPS of -$0.04 beat by 29% — small dollars but the trajectory is stabilizing. TTM FCF yield of 5.2% supports the coil.
  • Position at 50% of 52-week range with volume multiplier low reflects coiled accumulation. Minimum analyst PT of $22 with average $30.67 (+54% upside) is real Street conviction.
  • The counterweight is officer A-Award grants + smaller M-Exempt transactions on 8/5 (large management retention grant of 155K shares to Aditya Vikram Rajkumar) — that's the shape of management being retained ahead of a strategic action.

November 5 Q3 earnings decide direction — a beat on $0.003 EPS plus continued AI-marketplace metrics restart the coil upward. What breaks it: a Q3 revenue miss, a new-user growth decel, or a fresh dilutive raise.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X frame on GRPN +5% AH, minimum analyst PT $22, and 'macro backdrop benefiting Groupon in a skittish market' is directionally right — those are the load-bearing catalysts. The 'failing to hold $21.4 with worst-case $18-18.5' framing is fair.

What to watch: November 5 Q3 earnings — a beat plus continued AI-marketplace metrics extends the coil upward. Q3 revenue miss, new-user growth decel, or fresh dilutive raise is what breaks it.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-28

Groupon posts are bullish following a +5% AH move, with min analyst PT $22 and average $30.67 (+54% upside). CEO and CFO hosted a live Q&A. Bulls note macro benefits and 'Groupon is on schedule, just cheaper'. No bearish voice appears.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $GRPN

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Local commerce marketplace connecting consumers to merchants via deals and discounts in North America and internationally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Internet Content & Information sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $GRPN.

Internet Content & Information · Communication Services

No material change from last week — AI-enhanced ad targeting sustains META and GOOGL digital advertising pricing while LLM-based search agents remain a medium-term displacement risk to search revenue. Digital advertising continues to outperform traditional media as brand budgets follow eyeballs to social and search platforms.

What this means for $GRPN

Neutral — Local commerce marketplace connecting consumers to merchants via deals and discounts in North America and internationally; limited read-through from internet content & information macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$FDNFirst Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund
+6.4%YTD
+5.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-7.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
3.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
365%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
90.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-5.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$-0.04$-0.06+29.4%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.32$-0.02-1500.0%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$0.17$0.170.0%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-2.92$0.01-29300.0%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $0.00

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$117.2M+0.0%90.5%-2.8%$-0.32$-13.5M
Q4 FY25$132.7M+1.8%90.4%4.9%$0.18$53.0M
Q3 FY25$122.8M+7.3%89.1%1.8%$-2.92$-24.6M
Q2 FY25$125.7M+0.9%91.0%10.4%$0.51$25.2M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 3 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$520.1M$516.2M – $523.0M-$0.13-$0.16 – -$0.113
FY27$556.3M$552.1M – $563.7M$0.83$0.66 – $0.923
FY28$605.1M$572.3M – $638.0M$1.21$0.78 – $1.642

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.50%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-17.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+12.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 20.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.225-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 29 other (12 exempts · 10 awards · 7 inkinds) in window

See when $GRPN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentAug 10SC 13D/A
AI summary

Pale Fire Capital investicni spolecnost a.s. (Czech Republic) filed an SC 13D/A for Groupon (GRPN), disclosing 10,180,970 shares with 0 sole voting/dispositive power and 10,180,970 shared voting and shared dispositive power. This represents a meaningful activist or strategic stake in Groupon.

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 53
AI summary

A new 10%+ beneficial owner filed a Form 3 initial statement of ownership for GRPN (GRPN) dated 2026-08-05. The filing reports initial beneficial ownership of shares, representing approximately a 10%+ stake of outstanding shares. Form 3 is required within 10 days of crossing the 10% ownership threshold and is an administrative disclosure. This indicates significant insider or institutional accumulation and may precede further Schedule 13D/G activity.

8-KCharter amendmentJun 178-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Groupon, Inc. (Nasdaq: GRPN) filed an 8-K covering three items from its June 11, 2026 annual meeting: Item 5.03 (amendment to certificate of incorporation or bylaws), Item 5.07 (shareholder vote results), and Item 9.01. The certificate amendment signals shareholders approved a charter change — potentially a reverse stock split authorization, share count increase, or governance amendment — alongside routine vote tallies. Specific details of the charter change and vote outcomes are in the exhibits not included in the excerpt. A certificate amendment at a small-cap company with a complex balance sheet is material and should be reviewed in full.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 88-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a change in its executive leadership or board composition. The filing reports both a departure and an appointment in Chief Operating Officer. Individuals named in the filing include Employer Identification, West Wacker. Leadership changes at the C-suite and board level are material events requiring 8-K disclosure within four business days, as they can affect company strategy, investor confidence, and operational continuity.

8-KRestructuring / exit costsMay 268-K — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Groupon, Inc.'s Board of Directors approved a restructuring plan on May 21, 2026 that includes reducing the global workforce by up to 400 positions as part of a strategy to rebuild as an AI-native company. The initial phase includes impacted employees in the U.S. and globally; total restructuring charges are not specified in the available excerpt. The officer change (Item 5.02) is also disclosed. This is a significant workforce reduction for a company already executing a turnaround; the AI-native repositioning signals a fundamental strategic pivot away from traditional operations.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentApr 30SC 13D/A
AI summary

Pale Fire Capital investicni spolecnost a.s., a Czech Republic-based investment firm, filed an amended Schedule 13D/A reporting a 26.2% beneficial ownership stake in Groupon (GRPN). This is a significant activist or strategic position in the company. The amendment updates prior filing(s) to reflect current holdings and may indicate continued accumulation or a change in investment intentions.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 13
AI summary

Amit Shah filed an initial Form 3 for Groupon (GRPN) on March 10, 2026, reporting his initial beneficial ownership as a new director or officer at the company's Chicago, Illinois headquarters. Groupon operates an e-commerce marketplace connecting consumers with discounted local business offers, experiences, and goods.

+ 14 other (5 13Gs · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Groupon, Inc. $GRPN Holdings Raised by Bank of America Corp DEdefenseworld.net·3d agoGroupon Investor Update: AI, Personalization Drive Marketplace Resetmarketbeat.com·3d agoGroupon, Inc. (GRPN) Discusses Strategies to Attract Younger Generations and Evolve Product Offerings Beyond Mystery Deals Transcriptseekingalpha.com·3d agoGroupon Announces Series of Direct Retail Investor Engagementsnewsfilecorp.com·11d agoDimensional Fund Advisors LP Increases Stock Holdings in Groupon, Inc. $GRPNdefenseworld.net·18d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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