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GRGRPN

Groupon, Inc.

$GRPN·$989M·Internet Content & Information·Communication Services
$27.83-2.6%YTD+55.2%1Y-16.9%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 21 posts2026-07-11: 8 posts2026-07-12: 25 posts2026-07-13: 42 posts2026-07-14: 36 posts2026-07-15: 38 posts2026-07-16: 133 posts307+9%
Price updated 4h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
GRGRPN
$GRPNGroupon, Inc.
$27.83-2.62%307 posts+9%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $GRPN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Groupon up 75% in two weeks with ~60% of float short and Q2 earnings August 5.

Groupon is a US-listed digital-marketplace for local commerce — deal marketplace, coupon/voucher business, and evolving into a broader e-commerce local platform. It's a legacy consumer-internet name that has become a squeeze target in 2026.

Where the setup nets out:

  • Growth is essentially flat: Q1 revenue essentially flat YoY to $117M, and the four-quarter growth stack is 0-7% — the top line is stalled.
  • Margins are choppy: operating margin -3% in Q1 (regression from Q4's +5%), FCFy 5.2% — cash generation is real but volatile.
  • The May 21 restructuring plan cutting up to 400 positions is a real cost-discipline event.
  • Insider action: none disclosed.
  • Position: today +10%, YTD +59%, t12m -13% — the tape is coiled with recent breakout.
  • 60% of float short combined with concentrated insider/institutional ownership at 170% — squeeze setup mechanics are real.

The forward view: the August 5 Q2 print is the referee. A beat with any hint of revenue re-acceleration combined with continued cost discipline is what extends the accelerating leg dramatically (given short interest). What keeps it stuck: another flat quarter — even a beat could disappoint the community's $50 squeeze target. What breaks it lower: a specific merchant-defection headline, or a Google/Amazon local-commerce competitive escalation. This is now a squeeze setup as much as a fundamentals play.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on the +75% two-week rally, 60% short interest, and August 5 earnings catalyst is directionally right on the squeeze mechanics. Our take agrees the setup is coiled with real short-cover potential.

What to watch: August 5 Q2 earnings and any revenue re-acceleration; a merchant-defection headline or Google/Amazon local-commerce escalation would break the coil the wrong way.

On the calendar: 2026-08-05 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment29 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

Groupon is being talked up as a live short-squeeze candidate. Roughly 60-70% of the ~17M float is short (the highest-shorted stock in the sample), insider and institutional ownership is exceptionally high, and the stock has already run 63-75% in the past month toward $30 as shorts add and defend. Bulls cite the May 21 AI-native restructuring with up to 400 job cuts and $20-25M annualized savings that raised 2026 EBITDA guidance to $75-80M, a new COO from DoorDash/7-Eleven, CEO LinkedIn commentary about a redesign, recommendation-algorithm work, youth focus and UGC push, and heavy call OI concentrated in $30 strikes. The pushback in the sample is essentially non-existent; the debate is only about when the parabolic move triggers.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $GRPN

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Local commerce marketplace connecting consumers to merchants via deals and discounts in North America and internationally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Internet Content & Information sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $GRPN.

Internet Content & Information · Communication Services

No material change from last week — AI-enhanced ad targeting sustains META and GOOGL digital advertising pricing while LLM-based search agents remain a medium-term displacement risk to search revenue. Digital advertising continues to outperform traditional media as brand budgets follow eyeballs to social and search platforms.

What this means for $GRPN

Partial — Local commerce marketplace connecting consumers to merchants via deals and discounts in North America and internationally; the AI-enhanced digital advertising repricing is a secondary rather than primary near-term earnings catalyst.

Top industry ETF

$FDNFirst Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund
-0.3%YTD
+0.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-7.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
3.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
365%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
90.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-5.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.32$-0.02-1500.0%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$0.17$0.170.0%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-2.92$0.01-29300.0%
Q2 2025Aug 6, 2025$0.46$-0.02+2400.0%
Next earningsWed, Aug 5·consensus EPS $-0.07

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$117.2M+0.0%90.5%-2.8%$-0.32$-13.5M
Q4 FY25$132.7M+1.8%90.4%4.9%$0.18$53.0M
Q3 FY25$122.8M+7.3%89.1%1.8%$-2.92$-24.6M
Q2 FY25$125.7M+0.9%91.0%10.4%$0.51$25.2M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 3 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$520.1M$516.2M – $523.0M-$0.13-$0.17 – -$0.113
FY27$556.3M$552.1M – $563.7M$0.83$0.66 – $0.923
FY28$605.1M$598.5M – $612.1M$1.21$0.78 – $1.642

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.55%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+38.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+64.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 20.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today8.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.225-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 23 other (10 exempts · 8 awards · 5 inkinds) in window

See when $GRPN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KCharter amendmentJun 178-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Groupon, Inc. (Nasdaq: GRPN) filed an 8-K covering three items from its June 11, 2026 annual meeting: Item 5.03 (amendment to certificate of incorporation or bylaws), Item 5.07 (shareholder vote results), and Item 9.01. The certificate amendment signals shareholders approved a charter change — potentially a reverse stock split authorization, share count increase, or governance amendment — alongside routine vote tallies. Specific details of the charter change and vote outcomes are in the exhibits not included in the excerpt. A certificate amendment at a small-cap company with a complex balance sheet is material and should be reviewed in full.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 88-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a change in its executive leadership or board composition. The filing reports both a departure and an appointment in Chief Operating Officer. Individuals named in the filing include Employer Identification, West Wacker. Leadership changes at the C-suite and board level are material events requiring 8-K disclosure within four business days, as they can affect company strategy, investor confidence, and operational continuity.

8-KRestructuring / exit costsMay 268-K — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Groupon, Inc.'s Board of Directors approved a restructuring plan on May 21, 2026 that includes reducing the global workforce by up to 400 positions as part of a strategy to rebuild as an AI-native company. The initial phase includes impacted employees in the U.S. and globally; total restructuring charges are not specified in the available excerpt. The officer change (Item 5.02) is also disclosed. This is a significant workforce reduction for a company already executing a turnaround; the AI-native repositioning signals a fundamental strategic pivot away from traditional operations.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentApr 30SC 13D/A
AI summary

Pale Fire Capital investicni spolecnost a.s., a Czech Republic-based investment firm, filed an amended Schedule 13D/A reporting a 26.2% beneficial ownership stake in Groupon (GRPN). This is a significant activist or strategic position in the company. The amendment updates prior filing(s) to reflect current holdings and may indicate continued accumulation or a change in investment intentions.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 13
AI summary

Amit Shah filed an initial Form 3 for Groupon (GRPN) on March 10, 2026, reporting his initial beneficial ownership as a new director or officer at the company's Chicago, Illinois headquarters. Groupon operates an e-commerce marketplace connecting consumers with discounted local business offers, experiences, and goods.

+ 9 other (2 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Groupon (GRPN) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insightszacks.com·7h agoGroupon (GRPN) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Notezacks.com·7d agoGroupon (GRPN) Advances While Market Declines: Some Information for Investorszacks.com·10d agoGroupon, Inc. (GRPN) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Knowzacks.com·11d agoGroupon (GRPN) Declines More Than Market: Some Information for Investorszacks.com·21d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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