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GPGPK

Graphic Packaging Holding Company

$GPK·$3.4B·Packaging & Containers·Consumer Cyclical
$11.45-4.3%1Y-49.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-16: 2 posts2026-08-17: 5 posts2026-08-18: 7 posts2026-08-19: 1 posts2026-08-20: 2 posts2026-08-21: 0 posts2026-08-22: 1 posts18+6%
Price updated 11h ago·X counts updated 2d ago
GPGPK
$GPKGraphic Packaging Holding Company
$11.45-4.26%18 posts+6%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $GPK, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-08-20

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Consumer-packaging maker (cereal boxes, cups, folding cartons) grinding through a demand slump — cheap on cash flow, no catalyst.

Graphic Packaging is the largest US producer of fiber-based consumer packaging — the cardboard for cereal boxes, folding cartons, food-service cups, and beverage carriers. Customers include most of the CPG names (P&G, Nestle, Coca-Cola). Growth has been zero-to-negative for four quarters as packaged-food volumes stagnated with consumer trade-down.

  • The revenue picture is stuck at flat: revenue down 0.7% year-on-year in Q2 following +2%, +0.4%, and -1.2% — the consumer-packaging cycle just isn't inflecting despite cost pass-through pricing offsetting some of the volume softness.
  • The margin story is where the model becomes interesting: gross margin has compressed to 13% from 20% a year ago and operating margin sits at 4% — reversion from these levels alone would double reported EPS, which is why the FY27 consensus of $1.16 is nearly double FY26's $0.76.
  • The valuation is where the tape is quietly cheap: 17x trailing earnings but only 10x EV-to-EBITDA on a levered but stable packaging franchise with 5.6% free-cash-flow yield — this is priced for the slump to continue, so any hint of volume recovery re-rates the multiple hard.

Trajectory is stalled at 18% of the 52-week range with a fresh Q2 EPS beat that hasn't moved the tape; the Nov 3 print needs the first quarter of positive year-on-year volume growth or a raised FY27 guide to restart the setup — another flat print keeps this a value-trap through the winter.

What to watch: Nov 3 Q3 earnings — first quarter of positive year-on-year volume growth or a raised FY27 guide restarts the setup; another flat print with stable margins keeps this a value-trap through the winter with the multiple compressed near 10x EV/EBITDA.

On the calendar: 2026-11-03 — Q3 2026 earnings

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, along with its subsidiaries, provides extensive fiber-based packaging solutions for clients across the food, beverage, foodservice, and broader consumer product industries. The company's operations are divided into three principal segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. It supplies key paperboard grades like coated unbleached kraft (CUK), coated recycled paperboard (CRB), and solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS) to various paperboard packaging converters and brokers. Furthermore, it produces ready-to-use paperboard packaging products such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers, primarily serving consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies, quick-service restaurants, and other foodservice providers. A notable offering includes barrier packaging designed to protect contents from adverse factors like moisture, temperature fluctuations, grease, oil, oxygen, sunlight, and pests. The firm also develops intricate laminated, coated, and printed packaging structures, utilizing its CUK, CRB, and SBS materials alongside other paperboard grades obtained from third-party suppliers. Beyond materials and finished goods, Graphic Packaging designs and manufactures specialized machinery for packaging bottles, cans, and various non-beverage consumer items. This comprehensive service includes installing these machines at customer sites and providing continuous support, maintenance, and performance monitoring. The company distributes its products globally, reaching the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific through its sales offices and established broker networks. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Packaging & Containers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $GPK.

Packaging & Containers · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — International Paper's capacity rationalization is the operative catalyst as corrugated demand normalizes from COVID-era over-build and pricing discipline holds.

Top industry ETF

$XLYConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR
-1.5%YTD
+1.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
17.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
4.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
6.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
5.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
15.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.8Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 4, 2026$0.14$0.12+14.8%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.09$0.06+50.0%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$0.29$0.34-14.7%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.58$0.54+7.4%
Next earningsTue, Nov 3·consensus EPS $0.27

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$2.2B-0.7%13.3%4.3%$0.08$75.0M
Q1 FY26$2.2B+1.7%14.1%4.0%$-0.14$-253.0M
Q4 FY25$2.1B+0.4%14.4%7.4%$0.24$407.0M
Q3 FY25$2.2B-1.2%19.9%11.7%$0.48$-40.0M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$8.6B$8.6B – $8.6B$0.76$0.50 – $0.878
FY27$8.8B$8.7B – $9.2B$1.16$0.98 – $1.339
FY28$9.0B$8.8B – $9.4B$1.25$0.94 – $1.546
FY29$9.0B$8.9B – $9.3B$1.90$1.87 – $1.984

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.18%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+3.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-6.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

β0.665-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyMay 20Jeffrey StafeilDirector16.3K sh—BuyMay 8Robert HagemannDirector14.0K sh$154KBuyMay 7Jeffrey StafeilDirector17.9K sh$200KBuyMar 4Larry M VenturelliDirector17.5K sh$199KBuyMar 4Robbert RietbroekCEO44.3K sh$501K
+ 25 other (9 awards · 8 exempts · 8 inkinds) in window

See when $GPK insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KCharter amendmentJun 168-K — Item 3.03 · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
8-KOfficer or director changeJun 118-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
3New insider — initial holdingsJun 83
8-KMaterial debt obligationMay 268-K — Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
3New insider — initial holdingsMay 213
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 243
8-KOfficer or director changeMar 118-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
8-KMaterial agreementFeb 278-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
+ 20 other (9 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company $GPK Shares Purchased by Cetera Investment Advisersdefenseworld.net·12d ago676,077 Shares in Graphic Packaging Holding Company $GPK Acquired by Assenagon Asset Management S.A.defenseworld.net·13d agoComparing Silgan (NYSE:SLGN) and Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK)defenseworld.net·13d agoGraphic Packaging Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsdefenseworld.net·20d agoGraphic Packaging Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·20d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $GPK on X in the last 7 days.

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