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SWSW

Smurfit Westrock plc

$SW·$22B·Packaging & Containers·Consumer Cyclical
$40.48-1.9%YTD+16.0%1Y+0.3%
Price updated 13m ago·X counts updated 4d ago
SWSW
$SWSmurfit Westrock plc
$40.49-1.95%1.1k posts0.9×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $SW on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

1,059X posts · last 7 days
Sep 21Oct 4
Chatter Meter
0.9×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $SW's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data22 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

The $SW crowd is Stonewatch — a Robinhood Chain multiplayer-strategy P2E game, not Smurfit Westrock. The feed is a steady ATH drumbeat: $750K → $1M → $1.5M MC inside days, 3,500+ players, 1,750 holders, raids live and $SW burns stacking. Holders are reporting $400/day in-game earnings. There is no bear voice because the thesis is pure early-adopter land-grab energy, including a reinvest-rather-than-dump kingdom-building loop.

Read what X is saying about $SW

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $SW — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Broken storyStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

The world's largest paper-and-packaging combo is missing the easy earnings beats merged companies are supposed to deliver.

Smurfit Westrock is the paper-packaging giant created out of last year's Smurfit Kappa / Westrock merger. The pitch at the deal was cost synergies and pricing power across North America and Europe; the actual results so far say the integration is harder than the deck implied.

  • The core top line is going backwards: last quarter revenue was down 12.5% YoY on a 4% operating margin and EPS of $0.13, and the trailing two prints missed Street estimates by 14% and 16% — exactly the opposite of the beat-and-raise cadence a cost-synergy story needs.
  • The Chilean containerboard acquisition from CMPC is capital allocation into an already-leveraged balance sheet while margins are compressing — more revenue, more complexity, no obvious earnings leverage until pricing recovers.

At the mid-point of its 52-week range and flat against the 200-day, this is a packaging cyclical where the market is waiting for pricing to turn. The Nov 4 Q3 print needs to show gross margin stabilizing and a credible synergy number; another miss plus more M&A optics locks in the stalled read.

What to watch: Nov 4 Q3 earnings — operating margin direction, EBITDA synergy capture number, and gross margin vs Q2. A third straight EPS miss plus flat EBITDA is where the integration thesis cracks.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 earnings

event ahead 30dmerger integration

Read the AI verdict on $SW

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Global manufacturer of corrugated containers, containerboard, and paper-based packaging serving consumer goods, e-commerce, and industrial markets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Packaging & Containers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SW.

Packaging & Containers · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — consumer goods destocking cycle is largely complete, providing sequential volume recovery for packaging players.

What this means for $SW

Partial — Global manufacturer of corrugated containers, containerboard, and paper-based packaging serving consumer goods, e-commerce, and industrial markets.

Top industry ETF

$XLYConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR
-7.9%YTD
-5.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
61.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
2.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
4.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
2.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
18.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.8Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$0.35$0.40-13.5%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$0.33$0.39-16.0%
Q4 2025Feb 11, 2026$0.34$0.48-28.7%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$0.58$0.68-14.7%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $0.61

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$6.7B-12.5%16.4%4.0%$0.13$-420.0M
Q4 FY25$7.6B+4.2%18.2%6.1%$0.19$612.0M
Q3 FY25$8.0B+16.2%19.6%7.6%$0.47$523.0M
Q2 FY25$7.9B+186.5%19.1%7.0%$-0.05$307.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$32.2B$32.1B – $32.5B$2.22$2.13 – $2.3410
FY27$34.1B$33.4B – $34.4B$3.50$3.30 – $3.7010
FY28$34.8B$32.5B – $36.4B$3.96$3.31 – $4.7211
FY29$36.0B$34.7B – $37.1B$4.82$4.60 – $5.015
FY30$39.4B$38.1B – $40.6B$0.00$0.00 – $0.005

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.43%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-10.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-4.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 522.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.935-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 68 other (58 awards · 10 inkinds) in window

See when $SW insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 298-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

SW (SW) reported financial results for second quarter ended June 30, 2026 via 8-K Item 2.02, filed 2026-07-29. Full financials are in the attached press release (Exhibit 99.1). Quarterly earnings contain headline P&L, balance sheet, and guidance. Investors should review the exhibit for revenue, margins, EPS, and any updates to full-year outlook.

8-KShareholder voteMay 18-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 308-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 6 other (3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Corient Private Wealth LP Cuts Stock Holdings in Smurfit Westrock PLC $SWdefenseworld.net·10d agoIs Smurfit Westrock Set to Gain From Its Recent Portfolio Actions?zacks.com·14d agoSmurfit Westrock Announces Agreement to Acquire CMPC's Chilean Containerboard and Corrugated Businessbusinesswire.com·15d agoAdvisors Preferred LLC Acquires Shares of 75,037 Smurfit Westrock PLC $SWdefenseworld.net·48d agoCritical Contrast: Smurfit Westrock (NYSE:SW) and TriMas (NASDAQ:TRS)defenseworld.net·49d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $SW on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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