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SWSW

Smurfit Westrock plc

$SW·$24B·Packaging & Containers·Consumer Cyclical
$49.39+2.5%YTD+24.9%1Y+13.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-16: 2 posts2026-08-17: 0 posts2026-08-18: 4 posts2026-08-19: 4 posts2026-08-20: 0 posts2026-08-21: 0 posts2026-08-22: 0 posts12-29%
Price updated 3d ago·X counts updated 2d ago
SWSW
$SWSmurfit Westrock plc
$49.39+2.49%12 posts-29%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $SW, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-20

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Global paper-and-packaging leader post the Smurfit-WestRock merger — synergies coming, EPS misses show integration friction.

Smurfit Westrock is the combined entity from the July 2024 merger of Ireland's Smurfit Kappa and America's WestRock — the world's largest paper-and-packaging company by revenue. The story is deleveraging plus $400M+ of merger synergies rolling in over 2026-2027, while the underlying corrugated-packaging demand normalizes post-COVID.

  • The EPS misses reflect integration friction, not broken demand: Q2 EPS came in 13.5% below consensus and Q1 was 16% below — driven by merger-integration costs and inventory revaluation, not core-demand softness (Q2 revenue was actually in line with a mild volume improvement).
  • The synergies are the multi-quarter tailwind: management has targeted $400M+ of run-rate synergies from the Smurfit-WestRock combination, and this is early in the ramp — as the integration cost lines fall out and synergies flow in, the FY27 consensus EPS of $3.37 (versus $2.34 in FY26) is achievable.
  • The valuation reflects the transitional year: 62x trailing earnings on the messy TTM but 21x on FY26 consensus and 14x on FY27 — the market is looking through 2026 to the synergy-normalized 2027 number, which is why the stock is at 80% of the 52-week range despite the EPS misses.

Trajectory is coiling with the tape running ahead of the reported EPS; the Nov 4 Q3 print needs synergy-realization commentary plus at least in-line EPS to keep the setup — another double-digit EPS miss with no synergy visibility resets the forward multiple back toward 18x and gives back some of this year's move.

What to watch: Nov 4 Q3 earnings — synergy-realization commentary plus at least in-line EPS keeps the FY27-multiple-projection setup; another double-digit EPS miss with no synergy visibility resets the forward multiple back to 18x.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 2026 earnings

merger integration ongoingno sentiment

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $SW

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Global manufacturer of corrugated containers, containerboard, and paper-based packaging serving consumer goods, e-commerce, and industrial markets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Packaging & Containers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SW.

Packaging & Containers · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — International Paper's capacity rationalization is the operative catalyst as corrugated demand normalizes from COVID-era over-build and pricing discipline holds.

What this means for $SW

Partial — Global manufacturer of corrugated containers, containerboard, and paper-based packaging serving consumer goods, e-commerce, and industrial markets; partial earnings exposure to packaging & containers demand dynamics through its product portfolio.

Top industry ETF

$XLYConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR
-1.5%YTD
+4.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
61.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
2.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
4.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
2.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
18.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.8Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$0.35$0.40-13.5%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$0.33$0.39-16.0%
Q4 2025Feb 11, 2026$0.34$0.48-28.7%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$0.58$0.68-14.7%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $0.65

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$6.7B-12.5%16.4%4.0%$0.13$-420.0M
Q4 FY25$7.6B+4.2%18.2%6.1%$0.19$612.0M
Q3 FY25$8.0B+16.2%19.6%7.6%$0.47$523.0M
Q2 FY25$7.9B+186.5%19.1%7.0%$-0.05$307.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$32.1B$31.6B – $32.9B$2.34$2.23 – $2.518
FY27$33.6B$32.9B – $35.4B$3.37$2.96 – $3.668
FY28$34.4B$33.4B – $35.8B$3.82$3.68 – $4.026
FY29$36.0B$35.0B – $37.5B$4.82$4.64 – $5.087
FY30$39.4B$38.3B – $41.1B$0.00$0.00 – $0.007

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.84%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+7.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+18.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 522.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.975-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 51 other (41 awards · 10 inkinds) in window

See when $SW insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 298-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

SW (SW) reported financial results for second quarter ended June 30, 2026 via 8-K Item 2.02, filed 2026-07-29. Full financials are in the attached press release (Exhibit 99.1). Quarterly earnings contain headline P&L, balance sheet, and guidance. Investors should review the exhibit for revenue, margins, EPS, and any updates to full-year outlook.

8-KShareholder voteMay 18-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 308-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KOfficer or director changeFeb 278-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 11 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 proxys · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Advisors Preferred LLC Acquires Shares of 75,037 Smurfit Westrock PLC $SWdefenseworld.net·3d agoCritical Contrast: Smurfit Westrock (NYSE:SW) and TriMas (NASDAQ:TRS)defenseworld.net·4d agoSmurfit Westrock PLC $SW Shares Sold by Empowered Funds LLCdefenseworld.net·6d agoSmurfit Westrock PLC $SW Shares Sold by Amundidefenseworld.net·23d agoAccess Investment Management LLC Sells 185,600 Shares of Smurfit Westrock PLC $SWdefenseworld.net·23d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $SW on X in the last 7 days.

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