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TickerTalks›$FICO
FIFICO

Fair Isaac Corporation

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 39% YoY at strong marginsCatalyst pendingQuiet on X (58 mentions/wk)
$FICO·$29B·Software - Application·Technology
$1210.52-5.3%YTD-28.4%1Y-21.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-08: 11 posts2026-07-09: 4 posts2026-07-10: 10 posts2026-07-11: 4 posts2026-07-12: 5 posts2026-07-13: 5 posts2026-07-14: 5 posts44+2%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 6h ago
FIFICO
$FICOFair Isaac Corporation
$1,210.52-5.30%44 posts+2%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $FICO, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-13

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

FICO down 26% YTD as VantageScore competition worry compresses the multiple — B2B revenue up 72%, Jul 29 earnings tests the pushback.

Fair Isaac Corporation is the FICO Score franchise plus a specialty-analytics business — the specific compounder that spent a decade earning premium multiples on the credit-scoring monopoly, and 2026 has been the year the market started pricing VantageScore as a real competitive threat.

  • The B2B revenue surge is the fundamental positive: FICO's B2B revenue surging 72% captures why the operating fundamentals are strong even as the multiple compresses — the underlying franchise is compounding at rare double-digit-plus rates, but the market wants to see whether it holds against VantageScore's Fannie/Freddie pilot.
  • The last two prints beat consensus meaningfully: Q2 EPS at $12.50 (+14.8% surprise) and Q1 at $7.33 (+3.5% surprise) — the pattern of double-digit surprises has been the pattern for years, and Jul 29 continues the setup with sell-side expecting continued beats.
  • The VantageScore competitive risk is real but overstated: VantageScore commanding under 1% market share with VS-backed loans subject to the same LLPA grid as FICO Classic in the pilot — the actual market-share threat is small, but the perception risk that VantageScore starts encroaching drove the specific YTD -26% multiple compression.
  • The fundamentals compound structurally: Q2 revenue at $692M with EPS at $11.19, analyst FY26 EPS at $43.0 rising to $54.3 in FY27 and $64.6 in FY28 — 25% annual EPS growth is the exact profile the market pays 30x+ for, and current multiple compression creates the specific turnaround setup.

Jul 29 is the pivot — a beat continuing the +15% surprise pattern with a raised FY guide reflecting continued B2B strength and specific VantageScore-market-share commentary restarts the compounder narrative; a soft print or a VantageScore-share-gain warning would confirm the multiple compression and take FICO lower into fall.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the bullish X read — FICO's B2B revenue surging 72% and 53% incremental net income margins capture the specific compounder characteristics that have earned the ultra-premium multiple; the counter (priced like an ultra-compounder on 50% earnings growth, rate-hike sensitivity, VantageScore competition) is legitimate multiple-compression pressure that Jul 29 either resolves or extends.

What to watch: The Jul 29 print — a beat continuing the +15% surprise pattern with a raised FY guide reflecting continued B2B strength and VantageScore-market-share commentary restarts the compounder narrative; a soft print or VantageScore-share-gain warning confirms the multiple compression.

On the calendar: 2026-07-29 — Q3 FY26 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment10 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-14

FICO chatter frames the stock as a quality compounder with B2B revenue growth around 72% and 50%+ earnings growth, a 53% incremental net-income margin and a widening moat, alongside data-name counter-trend rally strength versus AI-doom fears across FDS, MCO, SPGI, VRSK and IT. Vantage-Score critics note its sub-1% market share and note VS-backed loans still subject to the same LLPA grid as FICO Classic.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $FICO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops FICO credit scores used in 90%+ of US lending decisions and sells predictive analytics software to banks and insurers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $FICO.

Software - Application · Technology

No material change from last week — platforms where agents expand contract value (ServiceNow, Snowflake) are re-rated upward, while tools where agents substitute human users (Adobe Creative..

What this means for $FICO

Neutral — Develops FICO credit scores used in 90%+ of US lending decisions and sells predictive analytics software to banks and insurers; the AI agent bifurcation — contract expansion vs. user substitution does not materially affect this business's near-term earnings.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-12.1%YTD
-14.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
35.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
53.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
50.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
11.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-43.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
84.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-1.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$12.50$10.89+14.8%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$7.33$7.08+3.5%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$7.74$7.32+5.7%
Q2 2025Jul 30, 2025$8.57$7.71+11.2%
Next earningsWed, Jul 29·consensus EPS $11.71

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$691.7M+38.7%86.8%58.2%$11.19$223.1M
Q1 FY26$512.0M+16.4%83.0%45.7%$6.68$173.9M
Q4 FY25$515.8M+13.6%82.3%46.0%$6.48$219.5M
Q3 FY25$536.4M+19.8%83.7%48.9%$7.49$276.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 15 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.6B$2.5B – $2.6B$42.98$41.28 – $45.2815
FY27$2.9B$2.9B – $3.0B$54.27$52.80 – $56.3615
FY28$3.3B$3.3B – $3.3B$64.56$50.30 – $78.4413
FY29$3.5B$3.4B – $3.7B$59.51$56.67 – $63.0710
FY30$3.8B$3.7B – $4.0B$86.08$81.98 – $91.236

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.30%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+2.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-13.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 22.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.295-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellFeb 25Eva ManolisDirector520 sh$638KSellFeb 13Joanna ReesDirector358 sh$487K
+ 26 other (13 exempts · 9 awards · 4 inkinds) in window

See when $FICO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJun 88-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

FICO (FICO) disclosed a material definitive agreement under Item 1.01, reporting a merger or acquisition transaction involving growth company as defined in Rule. The deal is valued at approximately $1.5 billion. Details of the transaction terms, consideration structure, and closing conditions are set forth in the full 8-K filing. Definitive merger agreements are among the most material events a public company can disclose, triggering regulatory review and shareholder vote requirements.

8-KMaterial agreementMar 208-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
8-KCharter amendmentMar 58-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 11 other (3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Why Fair Isaac (FICO) is a Top Growth Stock for the Long-Termzacks.com·5d agoFICO Consumer Study: Most Americans Who Don't Own a Home Say Homeownership Feels Out of Reachbusinesswire.com·8d agoVerdata Joins FICO Marketplace to Help Financial Institutions Strengthen Small Business Decisioningprnewswire.com·9d agoFICO Applauds Release of Historical FICO Score 10T Data by Fannie Mae and Freddie Macbusinesswire.com·14d agoFair Isaac: Strong Earnings Growth Makes The Valuation Attractive Againseekingalpha.com·20d ago

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Voices on X · top 5 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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