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TickerTalks›$FICO
FIFICO

Fair Isaac Corporation

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 39% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (329/wk), no spike
$FICO·$14B·Software - Application·Technology
$759.70-1.3%YTD-57.4%1Y-53.0%
Price updated 7m ago·X counts updated 5d ago
FIFICO
$FICOFair Isaac Corporation
$759.70-1.33%329 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $FICO on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

329X posts · last 7 days
Sep 28Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $FICO's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 51% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data11 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

The FICO crowd is contrarian-bullish — Fair Isaac is down 64% from highs on VantageScore disruption fears and FHFA alt-score concerns, now at ~17x forward with 50%+ ROIC and 20%+ EPS growth. Bulls model $75 EPS by 2029 at a 20x multiple implying ~$1,500. The dominant frame is "the market is pricing in disruption that lenders won't actually adopt because of a real moat." There's no clean bear voice in the sample.

Read what X is saying about $FICO

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $FICO — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

FICO is at 5% of its 52-week range on VantageScore disruption fears — the mechanics (39% revenue growth, 50%+ ROIC) argue the market is wrong.

Fair Isaac is the FICO score — the credit-scoring monopoly plus a growing software/analytics business. The stock has lost 61% YTD on VantageScore competition fears and FHFA alt-score concerns, now at 5% of its 52-week range with the fundamentals still growing.

  • The business is accelerating, not deteriorating: Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $692M at +39% YoY (!!) on 58% operating margins and 53% ROIC — these are the strongest fundamentals in the company's public history, which is why the sell-off looks like a VantageScore-disruption bet.
  • The valuation has reset dramatically: ~17x forward earnings at $42.94 2027 EPS consensus — down from 50x+ at the highs, which is where quality compounder bulls are stepping in on a 20%+ EPS growth business.
  • The disruption fears are real but overstated: FHFA conservatorship + VantageScore inclusion in GSE guidelines is the specific threat, but lender adoption is sticky and FICO's data moat (B2B licensing to Equifax/Experian/TransUnion) is harder to replicate than the market is pricing.

A Nov 4 Q4 fiscal 2026 print with revenue growth holding above 25% plus a clean fiscal 2027 guide restarts the thesis; another guide cut or a formal GSE VantageScore mandate and the breakdown extends.

Agrees with X sentimentX is contrarian-bullish on the valuation reset (~17x forward with 50%+ ROIC and 20%+ EPS growth) and the moat framing — mechanics (39% revenue growth, 58% op margin) back it. The crowd correctly identifies that the market is pricing a disruption that lenders aren't actually adopting yet.

What to watch: Nov 4 fiscal Q4 2026 earnings — Software segment growth, Scores segment price-per-score commentary, fiscal 2027 guide, and any GSE/FHFA update on VantageScore adoption timeline. A formal GSE VantageScore mandate extends the breakdown; a clean beat with price-per-score holding re-rates it fast.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — fiscal Q4 2026 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $FICO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops FICO credit scores used in 90%+ of US lending decisions and sells predictive analytics software to banks and insurers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $FICO.

Software - Application · Technology

No material change from last week — Adobe Q3 lifted guidance with triple-digit AI-first ARR, validating the AI upsell bifurcation: vendors embedding AI agents into core workflows (NOW, CRM, SAP, WDAY, TEAM, ADBE) are re-accelerating whi.

What this means for $FICO

Partial — Develops FICO credit scores used in 90%+ of US lending decisions and sells predictive analytics software to banks and insurers.; AI feature integration is the primary renewal variable in enterprise SaaS; execution on AI roadmap determines re-rating potential.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
+4.2%YTD
-3.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
35.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
53.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
50.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
11.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-43.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
84.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-1.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$12.18$11.76+3.6%
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$12.50$10.89+14.8%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$7.33$7.08+3.5%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$7.74$7.32+5.7%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $10.86

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$691.7M+38.7%86.8%58.2%$11.19$223.1M
Q1 FY26$512.0M+16.4%83.0%45.7%$6.68$173.9M
Q4 FY25$515.8M+13.6%82.3%46.0%$6.48$219.5M
Q3 FY25$536.4M+19.8%83.7%48.9%$7.49$276.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 16 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.5B$2.5B – $2.6B$42.84$42.15 – $44.2215
FY27$2.8B$2.5B – $3.0B$49.95$42.58 – $54.7615
FY28$3.1B$1.9B – $3.5B$57.12$32.55 – $70.6416
FY29$3.2B$2.6B – $3.5B$54.79$39.80 – $66.985
FY30$3.3B$2.5B – $3.6B$67.89$48.55 – $76.174

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.14%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-18.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-34.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 20.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.345-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 29Eva ManolisDirector967 sh$1.4M
+ 14 other (8 exempts · 4 inkinds · 2 awards) in window

See when $FICO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KRestructuring / exit costsOct 68-K — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs
8-KMaterial agreementJun 88-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

FICO (FICO) disclosed a material definitive agreement under Item 1.01, reporting a merger or acquisition transaction involving growth company as defined in Rule. The deal is valued at approximately $1.5 billion. Details of the transaction terms, consideration structure, and closing conditions are set forth in the full 8-K filing. Definitive merger agreements are among the most material events a public company can disclose, triggering regulatory review and shareholder vote requirements.

+ 8 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Independent Industry Experts Named to Judge 2027 FICO Decision Awardsbusinesswire.com·2d agoBreakfast News: The Quarter in Chartsfool.com·6d agoWhy Is Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO) Stock Down 60% This Year?defenseworld.net·7d agoFair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Securities Investigation Notice - Levi & Korsinskygurufocus.com·9d agoFair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Securities Investigation Notice - Levi & Korsinskyprnewswire.com·9d ago

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Voices on X · top 5 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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