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TickerTalks›$FICO
FIFICO

Fair Isaac Corporation

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 39% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesQuiet on X (97 mentions/wk)
$FICO·$24B·Software - Infrastructure·Technology
$1147.21-0.6%YTD-38.1%1Y-23.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 8 posts2026-08-23: 9 posts97-1%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
FIFICO
$FICOFair Isaac Corporation
$1,147.21-0.55%97 posts-1%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $FICO, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Fair Isaac de-rated 38% YTD despite 39% revenue growth — cheapest forward multiple in over a decade, best buyback compounder in the group.

Fair Isaac Corporation is the FICO Score monopoly plus a growing decision-analytics software business — the toll-collector on nearly every US consumer credit application. It's been savaged this year despite operating results being exceptional.

Why the setup is compelling:

  • Operating growth is remarkable: Q3 (June-end) revenue grew 39% year-on-year to $692M, op margin 58% — for a business with a genuine near-monopoly, the ideal software P&L.
  • De-rating is severe: shares down 38% YTD, 23% TTM, only 25th percentile 52w and 13% below the 200-day — a Buffett-style compounder walked into value territory on political noise, not fundamentals.
  • Valuation at a decade-low forward multiple: 35x trailing looks expensive but forward is lowest in over a decade; BofA's fair-value $2,217 note claims ~94% upside.
  • Capital return is the compound story: share count down ~60% since 2006 — best buyback compounder in the group, accretive per share at a compressed multiple.
  • Position coiling: near the 50-day, 13% below the 200-day on light 46% baseline volume — quiet accumulation.
  • Insider signal is mixed: director Kelly exercised (M-Exempt) $3.8M combined — routine option exercise.

The November 4 print is what breaks the coil — a repeat of 30%+ revenue growth plus reiterated FY guide keeps the recovery alive; a specific FICO Score fee-regulation update or a mortgage-cycle miss triggers a pullback back to $1,050 support.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree — the constructive setup (lowest forward valuation in a decade, $2,217 fair-value research note with ~94% upside, one of the best buyback compounders with share count -60% since 2006, group basket with META/NFLX/TDG/MSCI/SYK unloved-for-now) maps to real mechanics; the political FICO-fee concern is the real overhang that isn't priced.

What to watch: November 4 earnings — a repeat of 30%+ revenue growth plus reiterated FY guide keeps the recovery alive; a specific FICO Score fee-regulation update or a mortgage-cycle miss pulls the stock back to $1,050 support.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q4 FY26 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment20 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Bullish. Bulls are excited about FICO at its "lowest forward valuation in over a decade" while pricing power remains intact — the flagship data point being mortgage origination revenue growing 97% on low-single-digit volume growth. The VantageScore competitive threat draws debate, but posters mostly dismiss the regulatory noise. Buyback quality, monopoly-like moat, and comparisons to SPGI and MA dominate the conversation.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $FICO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops FICO credit scores used in 90%+ of US lending decisions and sells predictive analytics software to banks and insurers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Infrastructure sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $FICO.

Software - Infrastructure · Technology

SaaS multiples remain compressed as rate-sensitive valuations weigh on pure-play software; customers are lengthening deal cycles outside of AI-native workloads. AI co-pilot upsell is the only clear near-term catalyst — companies without it are treading water.

What this means for $FICO

Partial — net interest margin and credit quality are the primary earnings drivers; Fair Isaac Corporation, also known as FICO, delivers advanced analytics, softwar.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-4.2%YTD
+2.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
35.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
53.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
50.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
11.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-43.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
84.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-1.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$12.18$11.76+3.6%
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$12.50$10.89+14.8%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$7.33$7.08+3.5%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$7.74$7.32+5.7%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $11.03

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$691.7M+38.7%86.8%58.2%$11.19$223.1M
Q1 FY26$512.0M+16.4%83.0%45.7%$6.68$173.9M
Q4 FY25$515.8M+13.6%82.3%46.0%$6.48$219.5M
Q3 FY25$536.4M+19.8%83.7%48.9%$7.49$276.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 15 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.6B$2.5B – $2.6B$43.13$41.46 – $45.4712
FY27$2.9B$2.8B – $3.0B$53.34$51.74 – $55.0915
FY28$3.3B$3.0B – $3.5B$64.04$49.74 – $74.5915
FY29$3.6B$3.4B – $3.7B$75.90$72.21 – $79.8910
FY30$3.7B$3.6B – $3.9B$83.61$79.54 – $88.007

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.25%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-2.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-13.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 20.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.325-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 29Eva ManolisDirector967 sh$1.4M
+ 14 other (8 exempts · 4 inkinds · 2 awards) in window

See when $FICO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJun 88-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

FICO (FICO) disclosed a material definitive agreement under Item 1.01, reporting a merger or acquisition transaction involving growth company as defined in Rule. The deal is valued at approximately $1.5 billion. Details of the transaction terms, consideration structure, and closing conditions are set forth in the full 8-K filing. Definitive merger agreements are among the most material events a public company can disclose, triggering regulatory review and shareholder vote requirements.

8-KMaterial agreementMar 208-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
8-KCharter amendmentMar 58-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 11 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board Invests $1.74 Million in Fair Isaac Corporation $FICOdefenseworld.net·23h agoCaisse de depot et placement du Quebec Invests $521,000 in Fair Isaac Corporation $FICOdefenseworld.net·1d agoWhy Is Fair Isaac (FICO) Up 1.5% Since Last Earnings Report?zacks.com·4d agoFICO® Score Credit Insights Report: Average FICO Score Holds Steady at 714 as Consumers Show Resiliencebusinesswire.com·7d agoCallan Family Office LLC Makes New $842,000 Investment in Fair Isaac Corporation $FICOdefenseworld.net·7d ago

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Voices on X · top 14 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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