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DODOW

Dow Inc.

$DOW·$20B·Chemicals·Basic Materials
$27.97+1.4%YTD+18.8%1Y+18.1%
Price updated 10h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
DODOW
$DOWDow Inc.
$27.97+1.38%320 posts1.1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $DOW on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

320X posts · last 7 days
Sep 20Sep 27
Chatter Meter
1.1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $DOW's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 90% of tracked names.

Mixed sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-16

The $DOW thread runs two parallel conversations. The real Dow Inc. is weighing exit from a $20B Saudi chemicals venture amid an industry downturn — clearly a stress signal, not a bull case. Separately, an entirely different "DOW" — a crypto RWA protocol financing Amazon/eBay/Walmart merchant receivables — is pitching a real-cash-flow story to a small community. The two do not add up to a single directional take.

Read what X is saying about $DOW

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $DOW — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Dow in a chemicals downcycle — negative operating margin last quarter, exiting the $20B Saudi venture is a stress tell.

Dow Inc. is the global materials-science leader — polyethylene, polyurethanes, silicones, construction chemicals — selling into packaging, infrastructure, and consumer markets. The stock is up 17% YTD on dividend-value hunting, but revenue is contracting and operating margin went negative last quarter.

  • The P&L is weakening: revenue fell 6% YoY to $9.79B last quarter at a -0.3% operating margin and 6.2% gross margin — the chemicals downcycle is biting the P&L hard, and the FY26 EPS estimate of $0.63 is a dramatic step-down from historical earnings power.
  • The reported exit from the $20B Saudi chemicals joint venture is a stress signal, not a strategic one — Dow was expanding globally through that project, and pulling back is a capital-allocation retrenchment that reads as recognition of the demand outlook, not a focused reset.
  • At negative TTM P/E and 0.5x sales, the valuation already prices a cyclical trough; the dividend yield (currently ~10% uncovered by free cash flow) is the specific overhang bulls can't dismiss.

Breaking-down holds unless Oct 22 earnings confirm margin expansion toward break-even and management guides to a specific FY27 recovery timeline. Any dividend cut, or a further guide-down on packaging-chemicals pricing, is what seals the de-rating; a demand inflection or an actual Saudi JV termination with a cash-return commitment is what could restart the move — but the chart is pricing cyclical weakness, correctly.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X split is honest: the real Dow Inc. is in a specific chemicals-cycle stress position, and the Saudi JV exit is the stress tell the chart is pricing. The DOW RWA-protocol memecoin side-thread is unrelated noise and doesn't affect the equity read.

What to watch: Oct 22 earnings — operating margin recovery toward break-even, dividend sustainability commentary, Saudi JV exit terms, and any specific FY27 recovery timing. A dividend cut or widening operating loss is what seals the breaking-down tape.

On the calendar: 2026-10-22 — Q3 FY26 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $DOW

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Produces commodity and specialty chemicals — polyethylene, silicones, coatings intermediates — for packaging, construction, and consumer markets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Chemicals sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $DOW.

Chemicals · Basic Materials

Ethylene and propylene spreads are at cycle lows as US Gulf Coast capacity additions (Shell Petrochemicals, ExxonMobil Baytown complex) overlap with soft global demand. Specialty chemical segments serving semiconductors and batteries outperform commodity petchem; Chinese overcapacity in commodity chemicals is the primary global pricing depressant.

What this means for $DOW

Direct beneficiary — Produces commodity and specialty chemicals — polyethylene, silicones, coatings intermediates — for packaging, construction, and consumer markets.

Top industry ETF

$XLBMaterials Select Sector SPDR
+10.5%YTD
+8.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-7.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-1.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-2.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-7.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-16.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
6.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 23, 2026$1.44$1.25+15.2%
Q1 2026Apr 23, 2026$-0.14$-0.29+51.9%
Q4 2025Jan 29, 2026$-0.34$-0.46+26.7%
Q3 2025Oct 23, 2025$-0.19$-0.31+38.4%
Next earningsThu, Oct 22·consensus EPS $0.63

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$9.8B-6.1%6.5%-0.3%$-0.74$621.0M
Q4 FY25$9.5B-9.1%5.8%-11.0%$-2.15$-1.4B
Q3 FY25$10.0B-8.3%6.9%1.6%$0.08$563.0M
Q2 FY25$10.1B-7.4%5.4%0.1%$-1.18$-1.1B

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 13 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$43.7B$43.4B – $44.1B$2.36$2.21 – $2.4612
FY27$42.7B$41.4B – $45.1B$1.60$0.55 – $2.2913
FY28$44.0B$41.4B – $46.9B$1.84$1.48 – $2.0912

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.33%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-6.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-12.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 720.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.425-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 12 other (12 awards) in window

See when $DOW insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 143
AI summary

Nestor de Mattos Cunha Neto (President, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure) filed Form 3 at Dow Inc. effective August 12, 2026, disclosing 11,042.501 shares of common stock (including RSUs vesting 2027-2029) and six non-qualified stock option tranches totaling approximately 56,031 shares at exercise prices from $32.65 to $72.77 expiring 2028-2036. Routine Section 16(a) officer disclosure showing a compensation structure tied to long-term stock performance.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jul 10424B5
AI summary

Dow Inc. filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement to register 5,410,000 shares of common stock available for issuance under the Dow Inc. 2019 Stock Incentive Plan, covering shares underlying equity awards assumed from DowDuPont predecessor plans at the April 2019 spin-off. These shares are issuable only upon vesting or exercise of existing employee equity awards, not in a new offering. This is a companion filing to the same-day S-3 filing — purely administrative re-registration of legacy stock plan shares with no new dilution event.

8-K/AOfficer or director change (amended)Jul 68-K/A — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Dow Inc. amended its April 14, 2026 8-K to disclose compensation terms for new CEO Karen Carter (effective July 1, 2026): base salary increased to $1.5 million (from $997,425), annual incentive target raised to 165% of base (from 120%), and long-term incentive target raised to $14.025 million (from $5.3 million). Total target compensation increases to approximately $17.9 million annually. For 2026, her incentive will be blended to reflect both her prior COO role (H1) and CEO role (H2). This is a significant pay package for a new CEO at a major industrial company, reflecting the board's commitment to attracting and retaining top leadership.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
+ 10 other (2 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 routine 8-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

5 High-Yield Stocks Sacrificing Future Growth to Protect the Dividend247wallst.com·21h agoDow Falls Over 200 Points; Micron Earnings Top Viewsbenzinga.com·2d agoThe Dow's rough month, Micron's revenue surge, Google launches Gemini 4 and more in Morning Squawkcnbc.com·2d agoHere Are Wednesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Ally Financial, BankUnited, Ciena Corporation, CoreWeave, Dow, FormFactor, Lumentum Holdings, Moderna, Target, and More247wallst.com·3d agoDow Inc. (DOW) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insightszacks.com·4d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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