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COCOGT

Cogent Biosciences, Inc.

$COGT·$6.6B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$37.65-4.2%YTD+10.3%1Y+241.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-08: 6 posts2026-07-09: 31 posts2026-07-10: 50 posts2026-07-11: 18 posts2026-07-12: 32 posts2026-07-13: 61 posts2026-07-14: 28 posts226+38%
Price updated 40m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
COCOGT
$COGTCogent Biosciences, Inc.
$37.65-4.20%226 posts+38%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $COGT, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Cogent Biosciences up 242% in a year on NDA submission — bezuclastinib SM approval is the pending catalyst.

Cogent Biosciences is developing bezuclastinib, a highly-selective KIT inhibitor for advanced systemic mastocytosis (AdvSM) and non-advanced SM. The stock is up 242% over the past year on the June 30 NDA submission and positive Phase 3 APEX pivotal-trial data.

  • The June 30 NDA submission for bezuclastinib in Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis is the specific milestone — with the APEX pivotal trial delivering 65% mIWG ORR and 81% PPR ORR, the regulatory setup is genuinely strong.
  • Revenue is zero with -$0.55 EPS estimate for Q2 — this is a pre-commercial biotech; the $6.6B market cap reflects the commercial-launch trajectory optionality plus additional PDUFAs coming.
  • The 'two PDUFAs coming this year plus one more in 2026' framing from the corpus captures the specific catalyst schedule — real dated events driving the multiple.
  • The community's comparison to PRAX/RVMD/MIRM launching at $40 and going to $120-$340 captures the biotech-commercial-launch precedent; RVMD is exactly the framework working now.
  • 52-week position 87th percentile with position vs 200-day MA +18% — the tape is fully confirmed and near highs; the setup rewards continued regulatory progress.

August 4 Q2 earnings is procedural; the real catalysts are the PDUFA dates and NDA acceptance timing throughout 2026. A clean PDUFA approval plus a specific commercial-launch trajectory is where the +242% T12M gain continues; a delayed PDUFA or an unexpected clinical concern is where the tape breaks 87th percentile position. Real biotech-commercial-launch setup with real pipeline optionality — the setup rewards continued regulatory disclosure and the RVMD-style trajectory is the specific playbook.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X take on the APEX pivotal trial data, the two PDUFAs coming this year, and the PRAX/RVMD/MIRM launch-comp framing is analytically fair. The 65% mIWG ORR and 81% PPR ORR are genuinely strong efficacy numbers that support the commercial-launch thesis.

What to watch: PDUFA dates and NDA acceptance timing throughout 2026 — a clean PDUFA approval plus specific commercial-launch trajectory is where +242% T12M gain continues. A delayed PDUFA or unexpected clinical concern is where the tape breaks 87th percentile position.

On the calendar: 2026-08-04 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment9 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-07

Cogent Biosciences submitted its NDA for Bezuclastinib in Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis based on the APEX pivotal trial (65% mIWG ORR, 81% PPR ORR with a well-tolerated safety profile). Bulls flag two PDUFAs coming this year plus one more in 2026, a $6.8B market cap, positive comps ($PRAX/$RVMD/$MIRM all going from $40 launch pads to $120-$340), and a chart with 52-week highs setup. Sample skews strongly bullish.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $COGT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Biotech targeting the KIT D816V mutation in systemic mastocytosis with precision inhibitor CGT9486.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $COGT.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

No material change from last week — ADA conference oral formulation competition is bifurcating biotech multiples between GLP-1 platform holders and precision oncology innovators.

What this means for $COGT

Neutral — Biotech targeting the KIT D816V mutation in systemic mastocytosis with precision inhibitor CGT9486; the GLP-1 pipeline bifurcation and ADA oral formulation competition does not materially affect this business's near-term earnings.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+11.9%YTD
+47.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-42.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
0.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-5.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-83.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
0.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-0.53$-0.530.0%
Q4 2025Feb 17, 2026$-0.55$-0.51-7.8%
Q3 2025Nov 7, 2025$-0.50$-0.54+7.4%
Q2 2025Aug 5, 2025$-0.53$-0.55+3.6%
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $-0.55

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$0———$-0.60$-87.3M
Q4 FY25$0———$-1.13$-79.9M
Q3 FY25$0———$-0.71$-64.4M
Q2 FY25$0———$-0.64$-54.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$11.3M$4.3M – $15.9M-$2.25-$2.68 – -$2.049
FY27$345.3M$135.0M – $671.8M-$0.78-$1.45 – $0.219
FY28$730.1M$730.1M – $730.1M$0.77-$0.35 – $2.9810
FY29$1.3B$452.1M – $2.8B$2.73$0.41 – $6.735
FY30$1.7B$602.1M – $3.7B$4.37$0.66 – $10.775

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.87%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+11.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+18.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 148.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.345-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMar 31Fairmount Funds Management LlcDirector7.0M sh$242.6MSellJan 22Fairmount Funds Management LlcDirector3.5M sh$127.4M
+ 10 other (8 awards · 1 gift · 1 conversion) in window

See when $COGT insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteJun 118-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Cogent Biosciences held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026, with 170,801,004 shares eligible to vote. All three director nominees (Chris Cain, Arlene Morris, Todd Shegog) were elected (~120M-~124M For votes); PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as auditor (154M For, virtually unopposed); and the advisory say-on-pay resolution passed (129.2M For vs. 14.0M Against). This is routine annual governance with no contested proposals and no material opposition.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMar 31SC 13D/A
AI summary

Fairmount Funds Management LLC filed an amended Schedule 13D on COGT disclosing beneficial ownership (15,356,918.00 shares) as of 2026-03-31. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJan 22SC 13D/A
+ 15 other (7 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Cogent Biosciences Announces Submission of New Drug Application (NDA) for Bezuclastinib in Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis (AdvSM)globenewswire.com·17d agoCogent Biosciences: A Pre-Commercial Biotech With Commercial-Stage Leverageseekingalpha.com·32d agoCogent Biosciences Announces Preclinical Data from Novel JAK2 V617F Inhibitor at the 2026 European Hematology Association (EHA) Congressglobenewswire.com·35d agoCogent Biosciences Announces Detailed Data from APEX Pivotal Trial of Bezuclastinib in Patients with Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis at the 2026 European Hematology Association (EHA) Congressglobenewswire.com·35d agoCogent Biosciences Announces Detailed Clinical Data from PEAK Phase 3 Trial with Bezuclastinib in Combination with Sunitinib in Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GIST) at 2026 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meetingglobenewswire.com·48d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $COGT on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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