TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$COGT
COCOGT

Cogent Biosciences, Inc.

$COGT·$7.2B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$34.67-6.5%YTD+20.2%1Y+187.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-20: 8 posts2026-08-21: 7 posts2026-08-22: 2 posts2026-08-23: 6 posts69-21%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 7d ago
COCOGT
$COGTCogent Biosciences, Inc.
$34.67-6.52%69 posts-21%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $COGT, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-29

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Precision-oncology biotech with three NDAs stacking and buyout speculation — day -6.5% digesting.

Cogent Biosciences develops targeted therapies for diseases driven by specific genetic anomalies — most notably bezuclastinib (CGT9486), a tyrosine kinase inhibitor with three separate NDAs (AdvSM, non-AdvSM systemic mastocytosis, gastrointestinal stromal tumor / GIST). The stock is up 187% over 12 months on pipeline maturation.

What's actually here:

  • Revenue is functionally zero — the last four quarters were all essentially zero; consensus FY26 revenue of $10M growing to FY27 $350M and FY28 $740M implies commercial launch begins in earnest through 2026-2027.
  • The economics are burn-heavy but funded — Q1 operating margin against no revenue, FCF -$87M, and consensus FY26 EPS of -$2.25 widening; the $7B market cap on this burn rate requires the FY28 profitability inflection ($0.80) to arrive on time.
  • The three-NDA time-to-market moat is the specific thesis — with three separate NDAs stacking, bezuclastinib gets multi-indication commercial optionality that competitors can't easily replicate; JPM 27 buyout candidate framing (alongside TGTX, EWTX, LQDA) reflects the strategic optionality.
  • The tape is digesting — position 71.8% of the 52-week range, 10% below the 50-day, 6% below the 200-day, on 1.00x volume; the day -6.52% shows the +187% year has attracted specific profit-taking.

The forward path is that Q3 earnings on Nov 6 with any NDA submission or FDA acceptance commentary is the specific catalyst; the sell-side conviction is real with Deutsche Bank ($10M new position) and Handelsbanken adding. The bear case is that any NDA setback or a competitor Novartis Ayvakit label expansion compresses the bezuclastinib commercial opportunity.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on the three-NDA time-to-market moat and NVS acquisition-target speculation alongside EWTX and ELVN is grounded on the pipeline stack and strategic positioning; the JPM 27 buyout-candidate framing is consistent with the multi-indication optionality.

What to watch: Q3 earnings on Nov 6 — specifically NDA submission timelines for bezuclastinib in AdvSM, non-AdvSM systemic mastocytosis, and GIST. Any FDA priority review or acceptance decision is the specific catalyst.

On the calendar: 2026-11-06 — Q3 2026 earnings

multiple ndas pendingbuyout speculation

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-28

Cogent Biosciences chatter is small and constructive. Bulls describe COGT as one of the few non-bubbly biotechs in the sector, cite it as a possible NVS acquisition target alongside EWTX and ELVN (all Boulder-based), and note it's a JPM 27 target buyout candidate along with TGTX/EWTX/LQDA. Recent buying at the dip. No bear voice.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $COGT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Biotech targeting the KIT D816V mutation in systemic mastocytosis with precision inhibitor CGT9486.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $COGT.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

No material change from last week — ADA conference oral formulation competition is bifurcating biotech multiples between GLP-1 platform holders and precision oncology innovators.

What this means for $COGT

Partial — Biotech targeting the KIT D816V mutation in systemic mastocytosis with precision inhibitor CGT9486; partial earnings exposure to biotechnology demand dynamics through its product portfolio.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+12.1%YTD
+51.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-42.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
0.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-5.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-83.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
0.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 10, 2026$-0.52$-0.55+6.3%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-0.53$-0.530.0%
Q4 2025Feb 17, 2026$-0.55$-0.51-7.8%
Q3 2025Nov 7, 2025$-0.50$-0.54+7.4%
Next earningsFri, Nov 6·consensus EPS $-0.57

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$0———$-0.60$-87.3M
Q4 FY25$0———$-1.13$-79.9M
Q3 FY25$0———$-0.71$-64.4M
Q2 FY25$0———$-0.64$-54.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$11.9M$4.5M – $16.6M-$2.25-$2.68 – -$2.049
FY27$348.9M$136.4M – $678.8M-$0.77-$1.43 – $0.219
FY28$738.2M$252.1M – $1.1B$0.80-$0.35 – $2.9810
FY29$1.3B$443.4M – $2.5B$2.78$0.38 – $6.025
FY30$1.8B$592.8M – $3.3B$4.46$0.61 – $9.645

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.72%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-10.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-6.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 148.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.335-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMar 31Fairmount Funds Management LlcDirector7.0M sh$242.6M
+ 10 other (8 awards · 1 gift · 1 conversion) in window

See when $COGT insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Aug 10424B5
AI summary

Cogent Biosciences (COGT) filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement for an at-the-market offering of up to $400 million in common stock through Guggenheim Securities, acting as sales agent or principal. Guggenheim receives a 3.0% commission on gross sales price per share. The last reported sale price before filing was $42.39 per share on August 7, 2026, implying the maximum offering represents approximately 9.4 million shares at that price. This is a large ATM relative to the companys market cap, signaling significant capital needs for clinical programs - likely the ongoing bezuclastinib trials - and investors should model meaningful dilution risk over the offering period.

8-KShareholder voteJun 118-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Cogent Biosciences held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026, with 170,801,004 shares eligible to vote. All three director nominees (Chris Cain, Arlene Morris, Todd Shegog) were elected (~120M-~124M For votes); PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as auditor (154M For, virtually unopposed); and the advisory say-on-pay resolution passed (129.2M For vs. 14.0M Against). This is routine annual governance with no contested proposals and no material opposition.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMar 31SC 13D/A
AI summary

Fairmount Funds Management LLC filed an amended Schedule 13D on COGT disclosing beneficial ownership (15,356,918.00 shares) as of 2026-03-31. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

+ 13 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Cogent Biosciences: 3 NDAs Create A Time-To-Market Moatseekingalpha.com·3d agoDeutsche Bank AG Takes $10.32 Million Position in Cogent Biosciences, Inc. $COGTdefenseworld.net·6d agoHandelsbanken Fonder AB Purchases New Stake in Cogent Biosciences, Inc. $COGTdefenseworld.net·12d agoCogent Biosciences (COGT) May Find a Bottom Soon, Here's Why You Should Buy the Stock Nowzacks.com·17d agoCogent Biosciences Reports Recent Business Highlights and Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsglobenewswire.com·20d ago

More in Biotechnology

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$MRNA$ALT$AURA$IOVA$NWBO$SLS$AMLX$ABCL
Voices on X · top 3 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport