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CHCHDN

Churchill Downs Incorporated

$CHDN·$6.1B·Gambling, Resorts & Casinos·Consumer Cyclical
$87.48-2.7%YTD-24.7%1Y-12.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 0 posts2026-08-22: 2 posts2026-08-23: 0 posts4+100%
Price updated 47m ago·X counts updated 8d ago
CHCHDN
$CHDNChurchill Downs Incorporated
$87.48-2.69%4 posts+100%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CHDN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-08-29

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Kentucky Derby franchise operator at 21% 52w range; nine-regional-asset sale process underway + BlackRock 6.2M share accumulation.

Churchill Downs is a $6.12B US entertainment enterprise (horse racing — Kentucky Derby, TwinSpires online wagering, regional casinos) at $89.90 — -25% YTD, -13% t12m, sitting at 21% of its 52w range and -7% below the 200d. Deep drawdown with strategic action underway.

  • Q2 EPS $3.45 vs $3.45 in-line, Q1 $1.21 vs $1.06 (+14.2%), Q4 2025 $0.97 vs $0.85 (+14.1%) — Q2 in-line, others beat.
  • Q1 revenue $663M (+3.2% YoY), Q4 2025 $666M (+6.7%) — modest revenue growth.
  • Cash economics: PE 15.8, PS 2.06, ROIC 7.4%, ROE 36.9% (leverage-inflated), gross margin 34%, op-margin 23.6%, D/E 4.50 (elevated), EV/EBITDA 10.3, FCF yield 11.1% (attractive).
  • MAJOR STRATEGIC ACTION: Churchill Downs disclosed on July 29 it is "exploring the sale of nine wholly-owned regional [assets]" — meaningful portfolio-restructuring signaling. The Kentucky Derby franchise + TwinSpires would remain.
  • Analyst path FY26 EPS $7.08 → FY27 $7.72 (+8.9% growth) — steady mid-single-digit compounding.
  • BLACKROCK purchased 6,202,008 shares — enormous institutional accumulation. Aurora Investment Counsel invested $2.27M.
  • 2027 Thoroughbred Championship Series unveiled with NYRA — franchise-extension move.
  • Sentiment feed is empty.

Read as a horse-racing entertainment franchise with Kentucky Derby crown jewel + BlackRock $625M+ accumulation + regional-asset sale process; the debated question is whether the nine-regional-asset sale delivers on expected proceeds or whether the drawdown signals broader gaming-cycle weakness.

What to watch: Nine-regional-asset sale proceeds and timing, Kentucky Derby franchise progression, and Thoroughbred Championship Series traction on the Oct 28 print.

On the calendar: 2026-10-28 Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CHDN

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates the Kentucky Derby venue, TwinSpires online wagering, and a growing regional casino network.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Gambling, Resorts & Casinos sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CHDN.

Gambling, Resorts & Casinos · Consumer Cyclical

Online sports betting and iGaming are the structural growth channels; market maturation in early-legalization states is shifting focus to profitability over market share. Macao casino recovery depends on Chinese consumer confidence and visa policy normalization.

What this means for $CHDN

Partial — software subscription economics provide some insulation from macro cycles; AI integration is the growth catalyst for this segment; Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) is a leading U.

Top industry ETF

$BJKVanEck Gaming ETF
-6.5%YTD
-4.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
15.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
23.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
11.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
36.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
33.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
4.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$3.45$3.450.0%
Q1 2026Apr 22, 2026$1.21$1.06+14.2%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$0.97$0.85+14.1%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$1.09$0.97+12.4%
Next earningsWed, Oct 28·consensus EPS $1.21

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$663.0M+3.2%30.6%21.7%$1.16$236.0M
Q4 FY25$665.9M+6.7%29.5%18.8%$0.71$15.9M
Q3 FY25$683.0M+8.7%29.9%14.3%$0.54$267.8M
Q2 FY25$934.4M+4.9%42.0%35.1%$3.03$154.9M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.0B$3.0B – $3.0B$7.08$7.05 – $7.113
FY27$3.1B$3.1B – $3.2B$7.72$7.58 – $7.858
FY28$3.2B$3.2B – $3.3B$8.69$8.25 – $9.146

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.21%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+0.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-7.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 65.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.665-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 10 other (10 awards) in window

See when $CHDN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteApr 218-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CHDN held its Annual Meeting of stockholders around 2026-04-21 (8-K Item 5.07). Stockholders elected 2 directors to the board. A non-binding say-on-pay vote on executive compensation was conducted. Independent auditor ratification was approved. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

+ 10 other (2 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

BlackRock Inc. Purchases Shares of 6,202,008 Churchill Downs, Incorporated $CHDNdefenseworld.net·7d agoChurchill Downs: Wall Street Continues To Underestimate The Kentucky Derby Empireseekingalpha.com·11d agoAurora Investment Counsel Invests $2.27 Million in Churchill Downs, Incorporated $CHDNdefenseworld.net·12d agoChurchill Downs, NYRA Unveil 2027 Thoroughbred Championship Seriesdefenseworld.net·27d agoChurchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Discusses Creation of Thoroughbred Championship Series Linking Iconic Races Transcriptseekingalpha.com·28d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $CHDN on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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