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CHCHDN

Churchill Downs Incorporated

$CHDN·$6.0B·Gambling, Resorts & Casinos·Consumer Cyclical
$86.29+1.9%YTD-23.8%1Y-18.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 49 posts2026-07-11: 13 posts2026-07-12: 30 posts2026-07-13: 66 posts2026-07-14: 14 posts2026-07-15: 9 posts2026-07-16: 5 posts187+8%
Price updated 14h ago·X counts updated 14h ago
CHCHDN
$CHDNChurchill Downs Incorporated
$86.29+1.93%187 posts+8%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CHDN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Kentucky Derby operator down 25% YTD at 12% of 52w — deep-value racing-plus-gaming with July 29 print.

Churchill Downs runs the Kentucky Derby, TwinSpires online wagering, and a portfolio of regional casinos — the wide-moat US horse-racing franchise with a fast-growing digital-wagering business. The stock is down 25% YTD at the 12th percentile of its 52-week range.

  • Revenue grew 3% YoY last quarter with a 22% operating margin — the top-line growth is modest but the operating margin remains excellent; the equity has been de-rated on general consumer-cyclical concerns rather than fundamental deterioration.
  • Trades at 16x TTM earnings, 2.1x sales, and an 11.1% FCF yield — genuinely reasonable multiples for a franchise operator with 24% operating margin; the FCF yield is the anchor for the value case.
  • Only one A-Award insider transaction (Douglas Grissom July 2) — clean absence of distributing signal at the 12th percentile of 52-week range, which is meaningful for a defensive-quality name.
  • Kentucky Derby continues to be the crown jewel — the 2026 Derby ran May 2 and captured strong national attention; the specific franchise value depends on continued Kentucky Derby attendance and betting-handle growth.
  • 52-week position 12th percentile — the tape has been beaten up despite the fundamental strength; the July 29 earnings has to validate the trajectory to restart the multiple expansion.

July 29 Q2 earnings is the reset moment: revenue growth held plus specific TwinSpires handle-growth commentary is what confirms the value setup; a modest print or a fresh consumer-cyclical concern is where the -25% YTD extends further. Real quality-franchise operator at deep-value entry — the setup rewards continued Kentucky Derby dominance and TwinSpires digital-wagering expansion.

What to watch: July 29 Q2 earnings — need revenue growth held and specific TwinSpires handle-growth commentary. A modest print or fresh consumer-cyclical concern is where -25% YTD extends further.

On the calendar: 2026-07-29 — Q2 earnings

sentiment absent

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CHDN

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates the Kentucky Derby venue, TwinSpires online wagering, and a growing regional casino network.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Gambling, Resorts & Casinos sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CHDN.

Gambling, Resorts & Casinos · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — DraftKings' super app pivot and World Cup gambling activity signal OSB market maturation.

What this means for $CHDN

Partial — Operates the Kentucky Derby venue, TwinSpires online wagering, and a growing regional casino network; the World Cup OSB surge and digital casino iGaming maturation creates tailwinds for one product line, not the full operation.

Top industry ETF

$BJKVanEck Gaming ETF
-6.5%YTD
-4.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
15.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
23.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
11.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
36.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
33.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
4.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 22, 2026$1.21$1.06+14.2%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$0.97$0.85+14.1%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$1.09$0.97+12.4%
Q2 2025Jul 23, 2025$3.10$3.03+2.3%
Next earningsWed, Jul 29·consensus EPS $3.47

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$663.0M+3.2%30.6%21.7%$1.16$236.0M
Q4 FY25$665.9M+6.7%29.5%18.8%$0.71$15.9M
Q3 FY25$683.0M+8.7%29.9%14.3%$0.54$267.8M
Q2 FY25$934.4M+4.9%42.0%35.1%$3.03$154.9M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.0B$3.0B – $3.0B$6.94$6.75 – $7.218
FY27$3.1B$3.1B – $3.2B$7.37$6.87 – $7.718
FY28$3.3B$3.2B – $3.3B$7.54$7.41 – $7.644

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.16%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-9.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 65.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.675-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 18 other (14 awards · 2 returns · 2 inkinds) in window

See when $CHDN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteApr 218-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CHDN held its Annual Meeting of stockholders around 2026-04-21 (8-K Item 5.07). Stockholders elected 2 directors to the board. A non-binding say-on-pay vote on executive compensation was conducted. Independent auditor ratification was approved. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

+ 8 other (2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 10-Q · 1 13G) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Churchill Downs Incorporated 2026 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call Invitationglobenewswire.com·29d agoCHDN vs. TTWO: Which Stock Should Value Investors Buy Now?zacks.com·30d agoAre Investors Undervaluing Churchill Downs (CHDN) Right Now?zacks.com·30d agoSin Stocks Under the Microscope: Risks, Returns & Realityzacks.com·38d ago4 Gaming Stocks Worth Watching Despite Industry Headwindszacks.com·45d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $CHDN on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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