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BLBLLN

BillionToOne, Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 84% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesQuiet on X (77 mentions/wk)
$BLLN·$4.3B·Medical - Diagnostics & Research·Healthcare
$93.33-0.8%1Y-14.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-08: 2 posts2026-08-09: 2 posts2026-08-10: 4 posts2026-08-11: 2 posts2026-08-12: 1 posts2026-08-13: 1 posts2026-08-14: 0 posts120%
Price updated 8h ago·X counts updated 7h ago
BLBLLN
$BLLNBillionToOne, Inc.
$93.33-0.76%12 posts0%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $BLLN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-13

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Prenatal-diagnostics platform dropped 27-40% post-Q2 — prenatal contracted, but oncology +176% YoY, $126.71 avg PT.

BillionToOne is the prenatal-and-oncology molecular-diagnostics platform (UNITY Complete non-invasive prenatal screening; Northstar Select liquid biopsy; Northstar Response methylation tracking). The stock is down 11% over 12 months as the Q2 print delivered a specific reset — prenatal revenue contracted while oncology grew 176%.

  • The Q2 print is where the story breaks: EPS $0.15 vs $0.18 estimate (-18% miss), revenue $109M (+82% YoY on the acquisition-inflated base), operating margin collapsed from 16% to 5% on oncology mix-shift, management reiterated (rather than raised) 2026 revenue guidance despite the rep-driven sales build — plus the last four EPS surprises are -18%, +3300%, +57%, -28% (extremely volatile).
  • The strategic layer has legitimate long-term signal: revenue trajectory FY26 $456M rising to $577M FY27 and $727M FY28 (a specific compounding growth pattern), oncology segment growing 176% YoY (mix-shift is intentional), $126.71 brokerage average PT (well above $97.45 price), and Q1 FY26 revenue +84% YoY shows the underlying growth is real.
  • The counterweights are severe: 178x TTM P/E is very demanding on the small trailing EPS base, 94x EV/EBITDA is priced for perfection, tiny 5.5M-share float amplifies moves (a 27-40% post-print drop reflects the float dynamics as much as the miss), the CEO's 'cool response to Q2 weakness' drew frustration from higher-multiple holders, and beta 0.34 (surprisingly low structurally, but the recent post-print move ignored this).

The October 6 Q3 print is the next gate — a specific EPS beat plus prenatal-segment revenue re-acceleration and oncology-segment continued 100%+ YoY growth is what breaks the cooling upward toward $130. A specific prenatal-segment continued deceleration, an oncology-margin-compression disclosure, or a fresh CEO-tone framing that dissatisfies the growth-holder base is what would take a name back below $75.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bearish 'BLLN shares dropped ~27-40% post-Q2 as prenatal revenue contracted sequentially, operating margin collapsed from 16% to 5% on oncology mix-shift, management reiterated rather than raised guidance despite a rep-driven sales build' framing on X aligns with the setup. The 'vocal minority argues violent overreaction on a still 50%-growing company that stays GAAP profitable, oncology 176% YoY jump' minority is honest bull offset.

What to watch: October 6 Q3 print — a specific EPS beat plus prenatal-segment revenue re-acceleration and oncology-segment continued 100%+ YoY growth breaks the cooling upward toward $130; a prenatal-segment continued deceleration, an oncology-margin-compression disclosure, or a fresh CEO-tone framing dissatisfying growth-holders takes it below $75.

On the calendar: 2026-10-06 — Q3 earnings

tiny float

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bearish sentiment7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-13

Bullion — likely referring to a biotech name — got taken out to the woodshed post-Q2. One holder calls it 'a clear I am moving on from this name signal' and another 'overreaction of the ages,' but the mood is disappointed: revenue grew just 0.9% QoQ reported (7.3% ex-true-up), management barely acknowledged the weakness, and 40% drop feels crazy for a company growing 50% annually. Value hunters are stepping in citing 'oncology only' thesis with 'under 100 a steal,' but the crowd is bruised.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $BLLN

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Molecular diagnostics company using proprietary DNA counting technology for highly sensitive prenatal and oncology testing.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Medical - Diagnostics & Research sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $BLLN.

Medical - Diagnostics & Research · Healthcare

No material change from last week — pharma R&D spending is recovering and CDMO demand is growing as drug pipelines advance toward clinical trials.

Industry benchmark

22-name peer basket
+35.5%YTD
+83.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
178.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
5.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
10.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
11.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
7.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
70.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$0.15$0.18-18.2%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$0.34$0.01+3300.0%
Q4 2025Mar 4, 2026$0.11$0.07+57.1%
Q3 2025Dec 9, 2025$0.10$0.14-28.3%
Next earningsTue, Oct 6·consensus EPS $0.15

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$108.4M+83.8%73.0%16.5%$0.39$11.0M
Q4 FY25$96.1M+113.1%71.4%10.8%$0.10$9.3M
Q3 FY25$83.5M+117.4%69.9%11.5%$0.03$7.9M
Q2 FY25$66.6M+84.1%65.3%-2.4%$-0.01$0

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$456.0M$452.8M – $461.1M$0.98$0.87 – $1.106
FY27$577.3M$559.5M – $589.0M$1.21$0.82 – $1.456
FY28$727.2M$644.1M – $824.8M$1.95$1.10 – $2.715
FY29$786.3M$749.8M – $819.6M$2.52$2.37 – $2.662
FY30$826.6M$788.3M – $861.6M$1.58$1.48 – $1.672

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.—Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-19.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.—Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatTiny float · 5.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today8.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.345-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJun 298-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

BLLN filed an 8-K (Item 1.01) disclosing entry into a material definitive agreement. Key financial terms include $0.00001 . Material definitive agreements are significant corporate commitments and may be transformative depending on scope.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

BLLN filed an 8-K (Item 1.01) disclosing entry into a material definitive agreement. Key financial terms include $0.00001 . Material definitive agreements are significant corporate commitments and may be transformative depending on scope.

8-KOfficer or director changeMar 48-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 10 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 2 13Gs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Billiontoone, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLLN) Receives $126.71 Average PT from Brokeragesdefenseworld.net·4d agoBillionToOne: A Softer Quarter After Heightened Expectationsseekingalpha.com·8d agoBillionToOne (BLLN) Reports Q2 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Sayzacks.com·9d agoBilliontoone Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·9d agoBillionToOne Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and Reiterates 2026 Revenue Guidanceglobenewswire.com·10d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI Precision Medicine

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $BLLN on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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