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ALALMS

Alumis Inc.

$ALMS·$3.5B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$28.66+5.3%YTD+193.3%1Y+716.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 8 posts2026-07-11: 1 posts2026-07-12: 2 posts2026-07-13: 7 posts2026-07-14: 2 posts2026-07-15: 1 posts2026-07-16: 18 posts39-60%
Price updated 11h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
ALALMS
$ALMSAlumis Inc.
$28.66+5.25%39 posts-60%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ALMS, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-18

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

SLE data expected Q3; Cantor Overweight and Stifel Buy at $44 PT, community targets $111 on envudeucitinib — 3Q26 readout is the specific event window.

Alumis is a specific clinical-stage immunology biotech running the specific envudeucitinib oral I&I thesis — the reference name in the newer oral immunology-inflammation category running into a load-bearing 3Q26 Phase 3 SLE data readout. The stock is $28.66 on a $3.54B market cap, up 193% YTD and 716% YoY, sitting in the top 90% of its 52-week range.

  • The 3Q26 SLE data readout is the specific event-ahead catalyst: Stifel reiterated Buy with a $44 price target and positive PT analysis on the upcoming Phase 3 systemic-lupus-erythematosus readout, framing the study as 'will likely be successful' — the specific institutional-endorsement pattern that anchors the community bull framing.
  • The Cantor Overweight is the specific dual-endorsement: Cantor reiterated Overweight rating on ALMS — the specific top-tier sell-side alignment across two independent firms that seeds a broader coverage restart into the readout window.
  • The AyurMaya Capital 13D/A is the specific institutional-alignment signal: Amendment No. 3 filed July 2 by AyurMaya Capital Management (Gregory A. Brown) and affiliated person David E. Goel disclosing a combined 15.13% position — the specific active-shareholder pattern that supports the multi-hundred-percent runup.
  • The revenue base is specifically pre-commercial: Q1 revenue $1.7M was -90% YoY (against a collaboration-payment comp), and 2026 modeled revenue of $7.8M rising to $174M by 2028 with EPS losses widening to -$2.86 — the specific pre-commercial burn profile where every catalyst is binary.

The Q3 SLE data readout is the specific event-ahead catalyst: a positive readout with any specific commentary on efficacy differentiation versus JAK-inhibitor comparators or a broader I&I-combo platform framing is what pushes the tape toward $44+; a soft readout or a data-quality challenge sends the stock back through $20 support.

Agrees with X sentimentX bulls correctly identify the Cantor Overweight and Stifel Buy plus 3Q26 SLE readout setup — the specific pre-commercial burn is the caveat the aggressive $111 target underweights.

What to watch: The Q3 SLE Phase 3 readout — efficacy differentiation and safety profile. A positive readout pushes the tape to $44+; a soft readout sends it through $20.

On the calendar: 2026-08-12 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Alumis chatter is emphatically bullish. Cantor reiterated Overweight on ALMS. Stifel reiterated Buy at $44 with positive PT analysis on upcoming SLE data (3Q26) - said 'study will likely be successful.' ALMS hit ATH at $31 finally breaking $30 resistance with 3.9B market cap. Community models target 7.5B. Chart bulls target $111 with invalidation at $29 rejection. Community groups ALMS with PTGX as oral I&I companies making great progress. Community broadly long.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ALMS

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Clinical-stage biotech developing ESK-001, a selective TYK2 inhibitor, for moderate-to-severe psoriasis and other autoimmune diseases.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ALMS.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

No material change from last week — ADA conference oral formulation competition is bifurcating biotech multiples between GLP-1 platform holders and precision oncology innovators.

What this means for $ALMS

Partial — Clinical-stage biotech developing ESK-001, a selective TYK2 inhibitor, for moderate-to-severe psoriasis and other autoimmune diseases; the GLP-1 pipeline bifurcation and ADA oral formulation competition creates tailwinds for one product line, not the full operation.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+11.9%YTD
+44.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-12.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-71.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-53.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-12.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
354.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-54.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
89.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 14, 2026$-0.74$-0.74+0.4%
Q4 2025Mar 19, 2026$-0.95$-0.97+2.1%
Q3 2025Nov 13, 2025$-1.06$-0.92-15.2%
Q2 2025Aug 13, 2025$-1.17$-1.11-5.4%
Next earningsWed, Aug 12·consensus EPS $-0.70

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.7M-90.0%50.0%-5652%$-0.74$-87.2M
Q4 FY25$1.9M—100%-5000%$-0.89$-71.9M
Q3 FY25$2.1M—100%-5580%$-1.06$-110.9M
Q2 FY25$2.7M—100%-5272%$0.78$-107.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$7.8M$1.5M – $13.9M-$2.86-$3.15 – -$2.599
FY27$26.5M$8.4M – $49.1M-$2.73-$3.05 – -$2.258
FY28$174.3M$174.2M – $174.3M-$1.95-$2.81 – -$1.006
FY29$426.6M$125.2M – $784.2M-$0.81-$1.69 – -$0.075
FY30$875.8M$257.1M – $1.6B$1.28$0.10 – $2.673

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.90%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+19.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+52.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 85.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.715-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 6Sanam PangaliChief Legal Officer5.0K sh$140K
+ 17 other (12 awards · 3 others · 2 exempts) in window

See when $ALMS insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 2SC 13D/A
AI summary

AyurMaya Capital Management Company LP (Gregory A. Brown) and affiliated person David E. Goel filed Amendment No. 3 to their Schedule 13D on Alumis Inc. (ALMS), disclosing a combined position of 15,139,707 shares representing 12.3% of outstanding Class A Common Stock as of May 14, 2026. AyurMaya holds only shared (not sole) voting and dispositive power over all shares, consistent with a fund structure. The stated purpose and any activist intent are not detailed in the available excerpt.

8-KShareholder voteJul 28-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Alumis Inc. (ALMS) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 30, 2026, with 123,432,072 shares outstanding and eligible to vote as of the May 5, 2026 record date. The filing reports submission of matters to a shareholder vote (Item 5.07); specific vote results are not included in the available excerpt. This is a routine annual governance event with no expected material operational impact.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentApr 3SC 13D/A
S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationMar 19S-3ASR
+ 11 other (2 routine 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 ARS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Alumis: Is Envudeucitinib The 'Real Deal?' We Should Find Out Soonseekingalpha.com·23d agoThis Biotech Stock Is Up 355%. One Fund Added a $169 Million Position Last Quarterfool.com·55d agoAlumis Stock Has Soared 400%. Cormorant Bought Another $8 Million Last Quarterfool.com·62d agoAlumis Stock Is Up Over 300%. One Major Healthcare Investor Is Cutting Backfool.com·64d agoAlumis Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Highlights Recent Achievementsglobenewswire.com·65d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $ALMS on X in the last 7 days.

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