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ALALMS

Alumis Inc.

$ALMS·$3.4B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$21.81-2.5%YTD+189.2%1Y+364.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 2 posts2026-08-23: 3 posts43-15%
Price updated 12h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
ALALMS
$ALMSAlumis Inc.
$21.81-2.55%43 posts-15%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ALMS, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Alumis — clinical-stage TYK2 inhibitor biotech, Sept SLE lupus data imminent, options flow shows $807K in Sept $35 calls and holders rolling to ITM October calls.

Alumis is a clinical-stage biopharma developing TYK2 (tyrosine kinase 2) inhibitors — a next-generation autoimmune-disease target competing structurally with BMS's Sotyktu. The equity is a pure catalyst-play biotech with a defined near-term SLE (systemic lupus erythematosus) data readout ahead.

  • Q2 2026 EPS $-1.11 missed $-0.77 consensus by 44.7% on revenue $1.66M — miss reflects clinical-trial expense ramp into the SLE readout; the last four surprises are -45%, +0.4%, +2.1%, -15%, meaning consensus underestimates spend-heavy quarters.
  • The Aug 11 Benzinga headline is specific: 'Alumis Psoriasis Treatment Shows Leading Skin Clearance Rates' — this is the Sotyktu-comparable positioning that supports the ALMS-vs-BMS efficacy narrative bulls point to.
  • Institutional positioning is polarized: AyurMaya Capital filed 13D/A disclosing 15.14M shares (12.3%) as of May 14, small multi-officer selling Aug 3 at $26.37, California State Teachers Retirement System raised Aug 13.
  • Fundamentals are pre-commercial: P/E -12.7, P/S 355, ROIC -72%, op margin -54%, beta -0.67 (rare negative beta from idiosyncratic biotech-catalyst pricing) — analyst FY29 revenue $427M with EPS still negative.
  • The options-flow signal is specific: X posts flag $807K of September 35 calls printing plus a holder selling shares and rolling into October $15/$20 ITM calls to lower risk on the uncertain lupus readout — informed-money is positioning for a binary September event.

What resolves this upward is a Phase 2/3 SLE readout showing meaningful placebo-adjusted efficacy plus a psoriasis label-expansion catalyst — both ratify the ALMS-differentiation-vs-Sotyktu thesis. What breaks it is an SLE efficacy miss on the primary endpoint or an unexpected safety signal, either of which is a full re-rate lower for a name that trades on the readout.

Agrees with X sentimentThe mixed X take — positioning-focused wait-and-see ahead of imminent SLE data, one holder selling shares and rolling to Oct $15/$20 ITM calls to lower risk on uncertain lupus readout, options flow showing $807K of Sept 35 calls printing with speculative bullish positioning, fundamental take that ALMS is better than Sotyktu but with unclear lupus outcome — captures the pre-binary-event positioning exactly.

What to watch: A Phase 2/3 SLE readout with meaningful placebo-adjusted efficacy plus a psoriasis label-expansion catalyst resolves this upward; an SLE efficacy miss on the primary endpoint or an unexpected safety signal is a full re-rate lower.

On the calendar: 2026-11-12 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Chatter is limited but constructive: traders flag notable September call flow (an $807K 35C block), note that 8 of 36 biopharma-focused hedge funds hold it, and one investor rolled shares into October ITM calls ahead of an upcoming SLE readout. The stock is described as range-bound in the $20s for six months, so posters are positioning for a binary catalyst rather than reacting to price action.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ALMS

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Clinical-stage biotech developing ESK-001, a selective TYK2 inhibitor, for moderate-to-severe psoriasis and other autoimmune diseases.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ALMS.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

GLP-1 oral formulation competition — emerging clinical data from pipeline challengers — is the central bifurcation: platform holders (LLY, NVO) defend on efficacy breadth while precision oncology names decouple entirely. FDA catalyst cadence over the next 60 days sets the near-term tone.

What this means for $ALMS

Neutral — binary clinical-stage catalyst set is independent of the broader industry macro driver; pipeline readout timing is the company-specific event.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+12.1%YTD
+48.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-12.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-71.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-53.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-12.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
354.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-54.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
89.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 13, 2026$-1.11$-0.77-44.7%
Q1 2026May 14, 2026$-0.74$-0.74+0.4%
Q4 2025Mar 19, 2026$-0.95$-0.97+2.1%
Q3 2025Nov 13, 2025$-1.06$-0.92-15.2%
Next earningsThu, Nov 12·consensus EPS $-0.73

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.7M-90.0%50.0%-5652%$-0.74$-87.2M
Q4 FY25$1.9M—100%-5000%$-0.89$-71.9M
Q3 FY25$2.1M—100%-5580%$-1.06$-110.9M
Q2 FY25$2.7M—100%-5272%$0.78$-107.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$7.8M$1.5M – $13.9M-$2.86-$3.15 – -$2.599
FY27$26.5M$8.4M – $49.1M-$2.73-$2.99 – -$2.218
FY28$174.3M$83.3M – $309.1M-$1.95-$2.81 – -$1.006
FY29$426.6M$187.3M – $762.5M-$0.81-$1.64 – -$0.225
FY30$875.8M$384.5M – $1.6B$1.28$0.35 – $2.583

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.65%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-17.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-1.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 85.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.675-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 3John R. SchroerCFO3.3K sh$87KSellAug 3Bradley Mark ChristopherChief Development Officer2.6K sh$68KSellAug 3Sanam PangaliChief Legal Officer1.4K sh$36KSellAug 3David M GoldsteinChief Scientific Officer2.6K sh$68KSellAug 3Jorn DrappaChief Medical Officer2.4K sh$65KSellAug 3Roy C. HardimanChief Business & Strategy Ofcr2.7K sh$71KSellJul 6Sanam PangaliChief Legal Officer5.0K sh$140K
+ 10 other (5 awards · 3 others · 2 exempts) in window

See when $ALMS insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13DActivist position (5%+)Aug 17SC 13D
AI summary

Foresite Capital Fund VI, L.P. (managed by Foresite Capital Management VI and James Tananbaum) filed an initial Schedule 13D disclosing ownership of 2,203,800 shares of Latigo Biotherapeutics, Inc. (3.5% of 63,238,030 shares outstanding per the August 7, 2026 IPO prospectus). The filing was triggered on August 10, 2026, following Latigo's recent IPO. Foresite's stake is below the standard 5% 13D threshold, suggesting the position predates the IPO and was diluted by the offering. This signals Foresite Capital as a significant existing institutional investor in Latigo post-IPO, with no stated activist intent.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 2SC 13D/A
AI summary

AyurMaya Capital Management Company LP (Gregory A. Brown) and affiliated person David E. Goel filed Amendment No. 3 to their Schedule 13D on Alumis Inc. (ALMS), disclosing a combined position of 15,139,707 shares representing 12.3% of outstanding Class A Common Stock as of May 14, 2026. AyurMaya holds only shared (not sole) voting and dispositive power over all shares, consistent with a fund structure. The stated purpose and any activist intent are not detailed in the available excerpt.

8-KShareholder voteJul 28-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Alumis Inc. (ALMS) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 30, 2026, with 123,432,072 shares outstanding and eligible to vote as of the May 5, 2026 record date. The filing reports submission of matters to a shareholder vote (Item 5.07); specific vote results are not included in the available excerpt. This is a routine annual governance event with no expected material operational impact.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentApr 3SC 13D/A
S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationMar 19S-3ASR
+ 15 other (3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 routine 8-Ks · 3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Alumis Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Highlights Recent Achievementsglobenewswire.com·19d agoCalifornia State Teachers Retirement System Raises Stock Position in Alumis Inc. $ALMSdefenseworld.net·19d ago4 Psoriasis Drug Stocks to Watch During Psoriasis Awareness Month 2026zacks.com·21d agoAlumis Psoriasis Treatment Shows Leading Skin Clearance Ratesbenzinga.com·21d agoAlumis (NASDAQ:ALMS) Shares Up 5.7% – What’s Next?defenseworld.net·44d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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