TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$ALMS
ALALMS

Alumis Inc.

$ALMS·$1.4B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$9.80-7.4%YTD+0.3%1Y+129.5%
Price updated 14h ago·X counts updated 2d ago
ALALMS
$ALMSAlumis Inc.
$9.80-7.37%146 posts0.9×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $ALMS on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

146X posts · last 7 days
Aug 26Sep 8
Chatter Meter
0.9×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ALMS's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bearish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data16 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-09

Beneath a wave of near-identical "fireside chat" boilerplate posts, the real signal is bad: Baird cut its price target from $35 to $27 after the Ph2b LUMUS SLE trial missed primary and secondary endpoints, and one bear is openly asking for the bull thesis beyond "psoriasis big TAM." The sponsored-looking positivity is not carrying the day.

Read what X is saying about $ALMS

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
Free, forever. No credit card.

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ALMS — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-09-10

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Alumis' LUMUS lupus trial missed — director Akkaraju bought $10M anyway, but Baird cut the PT to $27.

Alumis is a clinical-stage biotech developing envudeucitinib (selective TYK2 inhibitor) for autoimmune diseases — lupus, psoriasis, and adjacent indications. Down 60% from recent highs after the Sept 1 LUMUS Phase 2b trial in SLE missed both primary and secondary endpoints.

The read:

  • Revenue is essentially zero ($1.7M in Q1) with $87M of quarterly cash burn — the entire equity is a bet on the pipeline, and the SLE program was one of the two large-TAM indications management was pushing.
  • Baird cut its price target from $35 to $27 on the LUMUS miss — the psoriasis program is still real, but Seeking Alpha's 'brutal setback but psoriasis still supports upside' framing captures that the equity now depends on a smaller indication window.
  • Director Srinivas Akkaraju's $10.7M open-market purchase across Sept 4-8 is a genuine insider-conviction signal — meaningful dollar amounts for a director buying into weakness. But the same director also sold $1M the next day, muddying the read.

Breaking down at the 22nd percentile of the 52-week range, 60% below the 50-day and 56% below the 200-day, on 1.5x volume with beta -0.67. What could stabilize it: a specific psoriasis Phase 3 milestone, or an M&A rumor from a larger pharma seeking the TYK2 platform. What confirms broken-story: another psoriasis-program trial miss, or a dilutive capital raise before an NDA filing.

What to watch: Nov 12 Q3 earnings — cash-runway commentary and psoriasis-program milestone updates. Watch also for any TYK2-platform-related pharma partnership rumors that would validate the remaining pipeline.

On the calendar: 2026-11-12 — Q3 earnings

trial failureinsider buyingcash burn

Read the AI verdict on $ALMS

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Clinical-stage biotech developing ESK-001, a selective TYK2 inhibitor, for moderate-to-severe psoriasis and other autoimmune diseases.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ALMS.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

GLP-1/obesity and gene-editing platforms continue to command premium multiples; mRNA therapeutics pipeline richness sustains broader biotech sentiment. FDA PDUFA catalysts and Phase-3 readouts are the near-term binary events across the cohort.

What this means for $ALMS

Neutral — Alms therapeutics; limited data, early-stage.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+22.2%YTD
+43.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-12.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-71.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-53.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-12.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
354.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-54.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
89.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 13, 2026$-1.11$-0.77-44.7%
Q1 2026May 14, 2026$-0.74$-0.74+0.4%
Q4 2025Mar 19, 2026$-0.95$-0.97+2.1%
Q3 2025Nov 13, 2025$-1.06$-0.92-15.2%
Next earningsThu, Nov 12·consensus EPS $-0.73

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.7M-90.0%50.0%-5652%$-0.74$-87.2M
Q4 FY25$1.9M—100%-5000%$-0.89$-71.9M
Q3 FY25$2.1M—100%-5580%$-1.06$-110.9M
Q2 FY25$2.7M—100%-5272%$0.78$-107.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$6.4M$3.3M – $13.0M-$3.27-$3.48 – -$3.078
FY27$27.0M$8.6M – $50.1M-$2.82-$3.07 – -$2.608
FY28$156.3M$83.3M – $309.0M-$2.08-$2.88 – -$0.977
FY29$414.9M$199.8M – $815.7M-$0.72-$1.63 – -$0.243
FY30$884.2M$425.7M – $1.7B$1.74$0.57 – $3.935

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.22%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-60.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-55.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 85.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today4.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.675-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuySep 8Srinivas AkkarajuDirector546.6K sh$5.8MSellSep 8Srinivas AkkarajuDirector96.1K sh$1.0MBuySep 4Srinivas AkkarajuDirector440.1K sh$4.9MSellAug 3John R. SchroerCFO3.3K sh$87KSellAug 3Bradley Mark ChristopherChief Development Officer2.6K sh$68KSellAug 3Sanam PangaliChief Legal Officer1.4K sh$36KSellAug 3David M GoldsteinChief Scientific Officer2.6K sh$68KSellAug 3Jorn DrappaChief Medical Officer2.4K sh$65KSellAug 3Roy C. HardimanChief Business & Strategy Ofcr2.7K sh$71KSellJul 6Sanam PangaliChief Legal Officer5.0K sh$140K
+ 10 other (5 awards · 3 others · 2 exempts) in window

See when $ALMS insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13DActivist position (5%+)Aug 17SC 13D
AI summary

Foresite Capital Fund VI, L.P. (managed by Foresite Capital Management VI and James Tananbaum) filed an initial Schedule 13D disclosing ownership of 2,203,800 shares of Latigo Biotherapeutics, Inc. (3.5% of 63,238,030 shares outstanding per the August 7, 2026 IPO prospectus). The filing was triggered on August 10, 2026, following Latigo's recent IPO. Foresite's stake is below the standard 5% 13D threshold, suggesting the position predates the IPO and was diluted by the offering. This signals Foresite Capital as a significant existing institutional investor in Latigo post-IPO, with no stated activist intent.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 2SC 13D/A
AI summary

AyurMaya Capital Management Company LP (Gregory A. Brown) and affiliated person David E. Goel filed Amendment No. 3 to their Schedule 13D on Alumis Inc. (ALMS), disclosing a combined position of 15,139,707 shares representing 12.3% of outstanding Class A Common Stock as of May 14, 2026. AyurMaya holds only shared (not sole) voting and dispositive power over all shares, consistent with a fund structure. The stated purpose and any activist intent are not detailed in the available excerpt.

8-KShareholder voteJul 28-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Alumis Inc. (ALMS) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 30, 2026, with 123,432,072 shares outstanding and eligible to vote as of the May 5, 2026 record date. The filing reports submission of matters to a shareholder vote (Item 5.07); specific vote results are not included in the available excerpt. This is a routine annual governance event with no expected material operational impact.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentApr 3SC 13D/A
S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationMar 19S-3ASR
+ 16 other (4 routine 8-Ks · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

226,618 Shares in Alumis Inc. $ALMS Bought by Bank of New York Mellon Corpdefenseworld.net·5d agoAlumis to Participate in Upcoming September Investor Conferencesglobenewswire.com·6d agoAlumis: A Brutal Lupus Setback, But Psoriasis Still Supports Upsideseekingalpha.com·9d agoAlumis Inc. (ALMS) Discusses Phase IIb LUMUS Trial Results and Subgroup Insights in Type 1 Interferon-Driven Diseases Transcriptseekingalpha.com·9d agoAlumis Lupus Trial Misses Main Goals, but High-Interferon Subgroup Shows Promisemarketbeat.com·9d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Best Performers

More in Biotechnology

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$AURA$ALT$MRNA$NWBO$RARE$IBRX$SLS$ABCL
Voices on X · top 7 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport