TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$AGNC
AGAGNC

AGNC Investment Corp.

$AGNC·$10B·REIT - Mortgage·Real Estate
$8.67-0.1%YTD-19.1%1Y-13.3%
Price updated 1h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
AGAGNC
$AGNCAGNC Investment Corp.
$8.67-0.12%166 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $AGNC on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

166X posts · last 7 days
Sep 21Oct 4
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $AGNC's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 51% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-27

AGNC reported Q2 2026 with a strong economic return reversing Q1 losses despite geopolitical volatility. Contributors flag AGNC trading at 24% premium to Q2 TBV while DX trades flat as attractive relative value. AGNC only raised $167M this quarter raising some questions. Solid quarter overall with resilience noted.

Read what X is saying about $AGNC

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
Free, forever. No credit card.

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $AGNC — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

AGNC Investment at the 52-week low on rate pressure — this is a mortgage-REIT-dividend trade purely on the rate curve.

AGNC Investment is one of the largest publicly-traded agency-mortgage REITs — residential MBS, backed by Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie guarantees, with the dividend yield as the main investor pitch. The stock has lost 18% YTD, now at 0.6% of its 52-week range.

  • The business is working within the rate environment: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.05B with 27% operating margin — the leveraged MBS portfolio is generating the dividend, which at the current ~15% yield is the whole investor pitch.
  • EPS beats are small and inconsistent: last four prints at +5%, +17%, -5%, -8% — book-value-per-share erosion is the specific concern, which 15% dividend yield compensates for but doesn't offset entirely.
  • The amended Gary Kain employment agreement (CEO target bonus of $1.3M for 2027) is routine governance — the real question is whether the mortgage-rate curve stabilizes and reverses the book-value erosion.

An Oct 19 Q3 print with book value stabilizing plus a 10-year yield cooling re-rates it off the lows; another leg higher in Treasury yields or a book-value erosion and the breakdown continues toward the mid-$8s.

Agrees with X sentimentX is directionally bullish on AGNC — Q2 strong economic return reversing Q1 losses, trading at 24% premium to Q2 TBV, and the resilient quarter narrative. The crowd correctly identifies the dividend-sustainability question and the AGNCZ ~9% YTW as the alternative yield play.

What to watch: Oct 19 Q3 earnings — book value per share, dividend sustainability (current ~15% yield), hedging-strategy commentary, and the 10-year Treasury yield trajectory. A sustained move in Treasury yields back below 4.5% re-rates AGNC off the lows; another leg higher continues the breakdown.

On the calendar: 2026-10-19 — Q3 2026 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $AGNC

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Agency mortgage REIT holding leveraged residential MBS guaranteed by Fannie/Freddie, generating income from the net interest spread.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where REIT - Mortgage sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AGNC.

REIT - Mortgage · Real Estate

Agency MBS spreads are moderating as Fed balance sheet runoff stabilizes, improving net interest margins for agency mREITs. Non-agency and commercial mortgage exposure faces headwinds from office vacancy rates and elevated refinancing costs; capital allocation toward agency-only strategies is outperforming in the current spread environment.

What this means for $AGNC

Direct beneficiary — Agency mortgage REIT holding leveraged residential MBS guaranteed by Fannie/Freddie, generating income from the net interest spread.

Top industry ETF

$REMiShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF
-20.8%YTD
-20.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
8.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
3.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
120%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
6.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
12.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
78.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
8.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 20, 2026$0.40$0.38+5.1%
Q1 2026Apr 20, 2026$0.42$0.36+16.6%
Q4 2025Jan 26, 2026$0.35$0.37-5.4%
Q3 2025Oct 20, 2025$0.35$0.38-7.9%
Next earningsMon, Oct 19·consensus EPS $0.38

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.1B-358.0%30.4%27.1%$-0.17$387.0M
Q4 FY25$1.3B-55.0%100%134%$0.89$128.0M
Q3 FY25$779.0M-245.9%100%199%$0.73$153.0M
Q2 FY25$289.0M-70.1%100%184%$-0.17$180.0M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.2B$3.7B – $4.7B$1.58$1.57 – $1.594
FY27$4.4B$3.2B – $5.7B$1.50$1.47 – $1.555
FY28$2.1B$1.6B – $2.5B$1.45$1.06 – $1.831

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.7%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-15.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-18.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.1B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.345-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 19Bernice BellCFO15.0K sh$166KSellJul 28Bernice BellCFO5.0K sh$55KSellMay 12Bernice BellCFO10.0K sh$108KSellMay 6Donna BlankDirector22.0K sh$237KSellMay 4Paul E MullingsDirector6.8K sh$73KSellApr 28Peter J FedericoCEO64.4K sh$714KSellApr 27Peter J FedericoCEO64.4K sh$710KSellApr 24Peter J FedericoCEO64.4K sh$703K
+ 8 other (8 awards) in window

See when $AGNC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeSep 118-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

AGNC Investment Corp. amended the employment agreement of Gary Kain to set his annual target bonus at $1.3 million for fiscal year 2027 and beyond. The amendment formalizes the compensation structure for Kain's continued leadership at the mortgage REIT. No other material compensation changes were disclosed. The amendment takes effect for performance periods starting 2027.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 29424B5
8-KShareholder voteApr 178-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 6 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 routine 8-K · 1 13G) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

AGNC Yields More Than 3 Times the 10-Year Treasury. Is That Enough Extra Pay for the Risk?fool.com·2d agoAGNC stock has a dividend yield of 17%: is it a buy as a risky pattern forms?invezz.com·2d agoAGNC Investment Corp. Declares Monthly Common Stock Dividend of $0.12 per Common Share for October 2026prnewswire.com·2d ago5 High-Yield Dividend Stocks Where the Payout Math Is Flashing Warning Signs247wallst.com·2d agoAGNC Investment: The Real Question Behind That Monthly Dividend247wallst.com·3d ago

More in REIT - Mortgage

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$ACRE$CHMI
Voices on X · top 1 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport