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AGAGNC

AGNC Investment Corp.

$AGNC·$12B·REIT - Mortgage·Real Estate
$10.89-0.3%YTD-0.7%1Y+12.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-17: 5 posts2026-08-18: 7 posts2026-08-19: 7 posts2026-08-20: 4 posts2026-08-21: 4 posts2026-08-22: 4 posts2026-08-23: 3 posts34+17%
Price updated 3d ago·X counts updated 11h ago
AGAGNC
$AGNCAGNC Investment Corp.
$10.89-0.27%34 posts+17%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AGNC, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Stuck sidewaysStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-08-22

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Dividend intact, book value stable, and the stock is doing exactly what a mortgage REIT is supposed to do — nothing exciting.

AGNC continues to run the agency-MBS playbook cleanly through a volatile rate backdrop, but the equity trades where it should — near book, at a fat yield — with earnings power sensitive to spreads more than to the operating decisions the management team can make.

  • Q2 revenue of $1.01B and EPS of $0.40 topped the $0.38 estimate by 5%, roughly the fourth straight quarter of small in-line-to-beat prints, and the stock is essentially flat year to date at $10.89 while holding a low-double-digit dividend yield.
  • Debt-to-equity of about 8.6 is normal for a levered mortgage REIT, and the trailing quarter revenue growth pattern — negative year-over-year comparisons but positive economic returns — reflects the ordinary mechanics of how MBS spreads move through the P&L rather than any deterioration in the book.
  • The July 28 sale of 5,000 shares at $11 by senior officer Bernice Bell for $55K is trivially small and consistent with routine 10b5-1 activity, not a signal — insider activity here has to be measured in tens of thousands of shares to be worth reading.

October 19 Q3 print is the next visibility on economic-return trajectory; the dividend and book value trend usually matter more than the reported EPS for how the stock behaves.

Agrees with X sentimentX's read of Q2 as a solid economic-return reversal of Q1 with resilience despite geopolitical volatility matches the print. The relative-value flag versus DX is opinion rather than a bundle-verifiable claim.

What to watch: Q3 earnings on October 19 for tangible book value trajectory and economic return, any dividend adjustment, and MBS-spread commentary from the call.

On the calendar: Q3 earnings on 2026-10-19

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-27

AGNC reported Q2 2026 with a strong economic return reversing Q1 losses despite geopolitical volatility. Contributors flag AGNC trading at 24% premium to Q2 TBV while DX trades flat as attractive relative value. AGNC only raised $167M this quarter raising some questions. Solid quarter overall with resilience noted.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AGNC

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Agency mortgage REIT holding leveraged residential MBS guaranteed by Fannie/Freddie, generating income from the net interest spread.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where REIT - Mortgage sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AGNC.

REIT - Mortgage · Real Estate

No material change from last week — Sachem Capital's first-mortgage bridge loans earn the spread between its borrowing cost and short-duration loan yields, with dividend sustainability dependent..

What this means for $AGNC

Partial — Agency mortgage REIT holding leveraged residential MBS guaranteed by Fannie/Freddie, generating income from the net interest spread; partial earnings exposure to reit - mortgage demand dynamics through its product portfolio.

Top industry ETF

$REMiShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF
-2.3%YTD
-0.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
8.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
3.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
120%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
6.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
12.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
78.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
8.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 20, 2026$0.40$0.38+5.1%
Q1 2026Apr 20, 2026$0.42$0.36+16.6%
Q4 2025Jan 26, 2026$0.35$0.37-5.4%
Q3 2025Oct 20, 2025$0.35$0.38-7.9%
Next earningsMon, Oct 19·consensus EPS $0.39

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.1B-358.0%30.4%27.1%$-0.17$387.0M
Q4 FY25$1.3B-55.0%100%134%$0.89$128.0M
Q3 FY25$779.0M-245.9%100%199%$0.73$153.0M
Q2 FY25$289.0M-70.1%100%184%$-0.17$180.0M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.2B$3.7B – $4.7B$1.58$1.57 – $1.594
FY27$4.4B$3.2B – $5.7B$1.50$1.47 – $1.555
FY28$2.1B$1.6B – $2.5B$1.45$1.06 – $1.831

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.49%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+0.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+1.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.1B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.305-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 19Bernice BellCFO15.0K sh$166KSellJul 28Bernice BellCFO5.0K sh$55KSellMay 12Bernice BellCFO10.0K sh$108KSellMay 6Donna BlankDirector22.0K sh$237KSellMay 4Paul E MullingsDirector6.8K sh$73KSellApr 28Peter J FedericoCEO64.4K sh$714KSellApr 27Peter J FedericoCEO64.4K sh$710KSellApr 24Peter J FedericoCEO64.4K sh$703K
+ 18 other (13 awards · 5 inkinds) in window

See when $AGNC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 29424B5
8-KShareholder voteApr 178-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 10 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

BlackRock Inc. Buys New Shares in AGNC Investment Corp. $AGNCdefenseworld.net·1d agoAre Mortgage REITs Income Machines or Capital Destroyers? Here's How to Tell the Difference.fool.com·2d agoIf You'd Invested $10,000 in Each of These 3 High-Yield Stocks 10 Years Ago, Here's How Much Income You'd Collect Todayfool.com·4d agoMonthly-Paid Dividends: 21 Ideal 'Safer' August Dog Buysseekingalpha.com·6d agoDividend Harvesting Portfolio Week 285: $28,500 Allocated, $3,238.12 In Projected Dividendsseekingalpha.com·7d ago

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