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AGAGNC

AGNC Investment Corp.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent norm
$AGNC·$13B·REIT - Mortgage·Real Estate
$11.13+0.5%YTD+3.3%1Y+16.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-02: 21 posts2026-07-03: 10 posts2026-07-04: 4 posts2026-07-05: 15 posts2026-07-06: 31 posts2026-07-07: 64 posts2026-07-08: 97 posts242+42%
Price updated 13m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
AGAGNC
$AGNCAGNC Investment Corp.
$11.13+0.54%242 posts+42%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AGNC, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-09

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

AGNC's 13% dividend has held all year — the July 20 print is where the mortgage spread math gets tested.

AGNC Investment is a mortgage REIT that owns leveraged portfolios of agency mortgage-backed securities (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guaranteed). Its 13% dividend yield is what draws income investors, and its book value tracks the spread between MBS yields and short-term repo funding costs.

Why the setup is quietly working:

  • The dividend has held — the tape has stabilized after the Fed's rate-cut cycle steepened the yield curve (which favors mortgage REITs), Q1 EPS of $0.42 beat the $0.36 estimate by 17%, and revenue printed above $1B; analyst estimates for the July 20 print sit at $0.38, essentially maintaining the 13% dividend run-rate.
  • Volume mult of 1.36x the 30-day average shows real re-engagement — institutional and retail flow has ticked up ahead of Q2, likely reflecting the yield-curve steepening and MBS spread setup that supports mREIT book value; 67% of the 52-week range means the setup has some room without being fully priced.
  • The counter-signals to hold in mind — 8.6x debt-to-equity is extremely high (though normal for an mREIT), Q4 2025 EPS of $0.35 missed by 5% (a real prior miss), and the model is highly sensitive to the shape of the yield curve; any Fed pivot back to rate cuts fast would flatten the curve and pressure book value hard.

The July 20 print is the whole trade. A clean beat with book-value-per-share stable and the $0.12 monthly dividend maintained restarts the extension toward $12; a book-value dip driven by MBS spread widening or a walk-back on the leverage ratio and the tape drops back through the 50-day, since the whole trade for income buyers depends on dividend sustainability.

What to watch: July 20 Q2 earnings — book value per share, net interest spread, and any change to the $0.12 monthly dividend; a beat with stable book value keeps the extension toward $12; a book-value dip or dividend walk-back drops the tape back.

On the calendar: 2026-07-20 — Q2 earnings

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Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AGNC

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Agency mortgage REIT holding leveraged residential MBS guaranteed by Fannie/Freddie, generating income from the net interest spread.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where REIT - Mortgage sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AGNC.

REIT - Mortgage · Real Estate

No material change from last week — Sachem Capital's first-mortgage bridge loans earn the spread between its borrowing cost and short-duration loan yields, with dividend sustainability dependent..

What this means for $AGNC

Direct beneficiary — AGNC Investment Corp.

Top industry ETF

$REMiShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF
-0.8%YTD
-0.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
8.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
3.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
120%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
6.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
12.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
78.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
8.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 20, 2026$0.42$0.36+16.6%
Q4 2025Jan 26, 2026$0.35$0.37-5.4%
Q3 2025Oct 20, 2025$0.35$0.38-7.9%
Q2 2025Jul 21, 2025$0.38$0.42-9.5%
Next earningsMon, Jul 20·consensus EPS $0.38

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.1B-358.0%30.4%27.1%$-0.17$387.0M
Q4 FY25$1.3B-55.0%100%134%$0.89$128.0M
Q3 FY25$779.0M-245.9%100%199%$0.73$153.0M
Q2 FY25$289.0M-70.1%100%184%$-0.17$180.0M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 4 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.2B$3.3B – $5.2B$1.56$1.54 – $1.604
FY27$4.2B$3.2B – $5.3B$1.51$1.47 – $1.534
FY28$2.2B$1.6B – $2.6B$1.55$1.05 – $1.981

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.64%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+4.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+4.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.1B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.305-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMay 12Bernice BellCFO10.0K sh$108KSellMay 6Donna BlankDirector22.0K sh$237KSellMay 4Paul E MullingsDirector6.8K sh$73KSellApr 28Peter J FedericoCEO64.4K sh$714KSellApr 27Peter J FedericoCEO64.4K sh$710KSellApr 24Peter J FedericoCEO64.4K sh$703KSellFeb 19Bernice BellCFO15.0K sh$170KSellFeb 17Bernice BellCFO35.4K sh$400KSellJan 29Gary D KainChair700.0K sh$8.3MSellJan 28Bernice BellCFO25.0K sh$304K
1–10 of 11
+ 28 other (18 awards · 10 inkinds) in window

See when $AGNC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 29424B5
8-KShareholder voteApr 178-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
8-KOfficer or director changeJan 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
3New insider — initial holdingsJan 143
+ 10 other (2 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 routine 8-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

The 12.9% Monthly Dividend That Quietly Eats Your Portfolioforbes.com·1d agoAGNC Investment (AGNC) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insightszacks.com·2d agoAGNC Investment Corp. Declares Monthly Common Stock Dividend of $0.12 per Common Share for July 2026prnewswire.com·2d agoHow Safe Is AGNC's 13% Dividend Right Now?fool.com·7d agoWhat Would It Take to Give Away 10% of Your Income Every Year?247wallst.com·8d ago

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