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ADADBE

Adobe Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 12% YoY at strong marginsRecent insider buyingConsistent chatter on X (2.4K/wk), no spike
$ADBE·$89B·Software - Application·Technology
$237.25+0.8%YTD-32.9%1Y-35.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 378 posts2026-07-10: 394 posts2026-07-11: 174 posts2026-07-12: 285 posts2026-07-13: 455 posts2026-07-14: 315 posts2026-07-15: 343 posts2,385-3%
Price updated 5m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
ADADBE
$ADBEAdobe Inc.
$237.25+0.82%2.4k posts-3%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ADBE, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

One of the three worst Nasdaq-100 names in 2026 — trading at 10x forward with a director buying $2M at $195.

Adobe is the creative-software incumbent whose stock has been left for dead in 2026 as the market prices in Figma and AI displacement of the Creative Cloud franchise. The tape is genuinely coiled at 10x forward with a fresh director buy and an Interim CFO signaling a management reset.

  • The core business is still executing cleanly: Q1 FY26 revenue grew 12% YoY to $6.4B, gross margin held at 89%, operating margin was 38% with $2.9B of quarterly FCF — this is a business earning 63% ROE and a 10% FCF yield, not the failing business the tape prices.
  • Insider action is genuinely bullish: director David A. Ricks (Eli Lilly's CEO) bought 10,000 shares at $194.51 on June 25 for $1.95M — a real open-market purchase by a top-tier director is the strongest single-print bullish signal, and it landed at the $195 zone bulls cite as basing.
  • The narrative reset is a real management-transition risk: Adobe named an Interim CFO (Steven Day) on June 15, and the June 11 8-K disclosed a departure/appointment under Item 5.02 — leadership churn during a strategic reset is standard turnaround pattern, but it means the September 10 call has to affirm numbers and strategy.

The September 10 Q3 FY26 earnings are the near-term arbiter — Q3 revenue above the $6.6B Q2 pace, ARR growth stabilization, and Topaz Labs / AI product-monetization commentary confirm the coiling turnaround. A soft ARR print with cautious AI commentary keeps the tape stuck below $230.

Agrees with X sentimentX is contrarian bullish, framing ADBE as oversold at 10x forward with Canva expanding the market rather than displacing Adobe's pro tools, plus the Topaz Labs AI acquisition as evidence AI improves the business. Mechanics validate the contrarian read: 14x TTM P/E, 10% FCF yield, and director Ricks (Eli Lilly's CEO) buying $1.95M at $195 on June 25 is a top-tier open-market signal. The tension the bulls have to own honestly is declining ARR growth commentary at the June print — the September print has to affirm not just numbers but the AI-monetization narrative.

What to watch: The September 10 Q3 FY26 earnings. Watch Q3 revenue vs $6.6B Q2 pace, Digital Media ARR growth trajectory, and any specific AI/Topaz Labs product-monetization commentary. Soft ARR + cautious AI narrative confirms the Figma-displacement bear thesis; steady growth with product commentary extends coil back through $250.

On the calendar: 2026-09-10 — Q3 FY26 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment44 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Adobe chatter is contrarian bullish. ADBE is -32% YTD trading at ~10x forward P/E, ranked among the three worst Nasdaq-100 stocks in 2026 because Wall Street feared AI would disrupt Figma-adjacent tools. Bulls counter that Canva actually expanded the market rather than displacing Adobe pro tools, and cite Adobe's acquisition of Topaz Labs (AI image/video enhancement) as evidence AI is improving the business model, not destroying it. Traders describe a small pullback basing pattern with $230-232 as the next radar. Bears note declining ARR growth, sell signals on daily/4h charts, and lingering Figma/Canva competitive pressure. But the dominant framing is that ADBE is oversold at 10x forward.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ADBE

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sells Creative Cloud design subscriptions and digital experience analytics tools to creators, marketers, and enterprises.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ADBE.

Software - Application · Technology

No material change from last week — platforms where agents expand contract value (ServiceNow, Snowflake) are re-rated upward, while tools where agents substitute human users (Adobe Creative..

What this means for $ADBE

Partial — Sells Creative Cloud design subscriptions and digital experience analytics tools to creators, marketers, and enterprises; this segment overlaps with the AI agent bifurcation — contract expansion vs. user substitution but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-12.0%YTD
-14.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
14.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
37.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
36.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
10.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
4.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
62.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
89.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Jun 11, 2026$5.96$5.82+2.4%
Q4 2025Mar 12, 2026$6.06$5.87+3.2%
Q3 2025Dec 10, 2025$5.50$5.40+1.9%
Q2 2025Sep 11, 2025$5.31$5.18+2.5%
Next earningsThu, Sep 10·consensus EPS $6.08

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$6.4B+12.0%89.1%37.8%$4.61$2.9B
Q4 FY25$6.2B+10.5%88.9%36.5%$4.45$3.1B
Q3 FY25$6.0B+10.7%89.3%36.3%$4.18$2.1B
Q2 FY25$5.9B+10.6%89.1%35.9%$3.95$2.1B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 24 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$26.5B$26.0B – $26.6B$24.37$23.42 – $24.5123
FY27$28.9B$28.4B – $29.6B$27.48$26.26 – $28.5524
FY28$31.4B$31.4B – $31.4B$31.44$29.10 – $36.1114
FY29$34.4B$33.7B – $35.0B$32.28$31.41 – $33.017
FY30$37.3B$36.6B – $38.0B$34.84$33.90 – $35.638

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.24%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+1.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-16.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 396.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.435-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyJun 25David A RicksDirector10.0K sh$1.9MSellApr 30Jillian ForuszSVP & CAO755 sh$186KSellApr 28Shantanu NarayenCEO75.0K sh$18.3MSellApr 20Daniel DurnCFO1.3K sh$331K
+ 30 other (15 exempts · 10 awards · 5 inkinds) in window

See when $ADBE insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 173
AI summary

Steven Day filed a Form 3 initial ownership statement for Adobe Inc. (Nasdaq: ADBE) as of June 15, 2026, disclosing his role as Interim CFO and SVP with direct beneficial ownership of 4,618.689 shares. The 'Interim' CFO designation signals Adobe's CFO role is in transition — a minor governance event for investors to monitor until a permanent appointment is announced at this large-cap software company.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 118-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) reported Q2 fiscal 2026 financial results (quarter ended May 29, 2026) via press release on June 11, 2026, including non-GAAP metrics such as constant-currency revenue growth, non-GAAP operating income, non-GAAP net income, and non-GAAP diluted EPS — specific figures are in Exhibit 99.1. The same 8-K also covers an officer departure or appointment under Item 5.02 (details cut off in the excerpt). This is a high-visibility earnings event for a mega-cap creative software company; the officer change adds a minor governance dimension but is secondary to the quarterly results.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 218-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

ADBE disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-21). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

8-KOfficer or director changeMar 128-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KOfficer or director changeJan 278-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 11 other (3 13Gs · 3 proxys · 2 S-8s · 2 10-Qs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Adobe Systems (ADBE) is a Top-Ranked Momentum Stock: Should You Buy?zacks.com·2d agoAdobe: Creativity Is Necessary To Justify The Stock Priceseekingalpha.com·3d agoAdobe Systems (ADBE) Recently Broke Out Above the 50-Day Moving Averagezacks.com·3d agoAdobe Inc. (ADBE) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Knowzacks.com·4d agoWe're Bullish on Adobe Despite 40% Decline From Peak Levels247wallst.com·5d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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Voices on X · top 8 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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