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ADADBE

Adobe Inc.

$ADBE·$96B·Software - Application·Technology
$245.20-2.6%YTD-30.1%1Y-25.5%
Price updated 25m ago·X counts updated 5d ago
ADADBE
$ADBEAdobe Inc.
$245.20-2.57%884 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $ADBE on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

884X posts · last 7 days
Sep 28Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ADBE's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 51% of tracked names.

Mixed sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data21 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-16

Adobe posters are torn heading into earnings, with the stock down ~26% YTD and options pricing an 8% move. Bulls lean on Michael Burry going long, AI-first ARR tripling past $500M, and a forward P/E of ~11 as evidence the Canva/Figma bear case is fully priced. Bears counter with OpenAI cutting Adobe out of ChatGPT ad slots and users defecting to cheaper AI tools; a large tranche of the chatter is trader-journal posts staking levels around $250 support and $268 reclaim.

Read what X is saying about $ADBE

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ADBE — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Still a cash machine at 14x earnings — but the AI threat is real and the outgoing CEO just dumped $31M.

Adobe is the dominant creative-software monopoly — Photoshop, Premiere, Acrobat — now in a messy transition under new CEO Chakravarthy and attacked by AI-first competitors (Canva, Figma, OpenAI's integrated image tools). The stock sits at 29% of its 52-week range going into Dec 9 earnings.

  • The P&L is still exceptional: revenue grew 12% YoY to $6.4B at 38% operating margin and 89% gross margin, with EPS $4.61 — this is a cash machine throwing off $7B+ of annual free cash flow, trading at just 14x trailing earnings.
  • The CEO transition is real: Shantanu Narayen sold $31M across two September tranches at $250 and new CEO Anil Chakravarthy stepped in Sep 2 — Chakravarthy's track record will take 2-4 quarters to show up in bookings, and the Street doesn't know how to price it yet.
  • The AI headwinds are specific: OpenAI cutting Adobe out of ChatGPT ad slots is a real distribution channel loss, and the AI-first ARR tripling past $500M is a credible counter — but the churn risk at the small-business end of the funnel is the overhang bulls can't dismiss.

Breaking-down holds unless Dec 9 earnings confirm Digital Media ARR growth above 11% YoY, AI-first ARR acceleration past $600M, and Chakravarthy articulates a clear counter to Canva/Figma distribution. A soft Digital Media print, or any ARR deceleration, is what seals the de-rating; Michael Burry's long position implies the trade is already priced for pain.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X split is honest — bulls citing Burry's long, AI-first ARR tripling past $500M, and the ~11x forward P/E have real support; bears pointing at OpenAI cutting ADBE out of ChatGPT ad slots are flagging a specific distribution loss, and the trader-journal $250/$268 levels bracket the breaking-down range.

What to watch: Dec 9 earnings — Digital Media ARR growth versus 11% consensus, AI-first ARR trajectory past $600M, Chakravarthy's strategic framing. A sub-10% Digital Media ARR print or an AI-ARR miss is what seals breaking-down.

On the calendar: 2026-12-09 — Q4 FY26 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $ADBE

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sells Creative Cloud design subscriptions and digital experience analytics tools to creators, marketers, and enterprises.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ADBE.

Software - Application · Technology

No material change from last week — Adobe Q3 lifted guidance with triple-digit AI-first ARR, validating the AI upsell bifurcation: vendors embedding AI agents into core workflows (NOW, CRM, SAP, WDAY, TEAM, ADBE) are re-accelerating whi.

What this means for $ADBE

Partial — Sells Creative Cloud design subscriptions and digital experience analytics tools to creators, marketers, and enterprises.; AI feature integration (Agentforce, AI Copilot) into core platform defends ARR while pricing for AI add-ons lifts ACV.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
+4.2%YTD
-7.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
14.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
37.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
36.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
10.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
4.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
62.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
89.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Sep 10, 2026$6.13$6.08+0.8%
Q1 2026Jun 11, 2026$5.96$5.82+2.4%
Q4 2025Mar 12, 2026$6.06$5.87+3.2%
Q3 2025Dec 10, 2025$5.50$5.40+1.9%
Next earningsWed, Dec 9·consensus EPS $6.32

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$6.4B+12.0%89.1%37.8%$4.61$2.9B
Q4 FY25$6.2B+10.5%88.9%36.5%$4.45$3.1B
Q3 FY25$6.0B+10.7%89.3%36.3%$4.18$2.1B
Q2 FY25$5.9B+10.6%89.1%35.9%$3.95$2.1B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 28 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$26.6B$26.6B – $26.6B$24.48$24.41 – $24.5127
FY27$29.1B$28.4B – $29.6B$27.73$26.87 – $28.7128
FY28$31.6B$30.7B – $33.4B$31.64$29.07 – $37.1423
FY29$34.4B$33.9B – $35.1B$37.26$36.49 – $38.2321
FY30$37.4B$36.8B – $38.1B$34.84$34.12 – $35.7516

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.35%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-2.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-1.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 388.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.425-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 17Shantanu NarayenCEO50.5K sh$12.6MSellSep 16Shantanu NarayenCEO74.5K sh$18.7MSellJul 29Jillian ForuszSVP & CAO416 sh$110KBuyJun 25David A RicksDirector10.0K sh$1.9MSellApr 30Jillian ForuszSVP & CAO755 sh$186KSellApr 28Shantanu NarayenCEO75.0K sh$18.3MSellApr 20Daniel DurnCFO1.3K sh$331K
+ 29 other (13 exempts · 12 inkinds · 4 awards) in window

See when $ADBE insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeSep 88-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Adobe (ADBE) announced via 8-K (Item 5.02) on September 5, 2026 that Anil Chakravarthy has been appointed as Chief Executive Officer, effective September 2, 2026. Chakravarthy previously served as Adobe's Executive Vice President and General Manager. No financial terms of his appointment were disclosed in the body excerpt.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Adobe Inc.'s Executive Compensation Committee approved a retention letter for Louise Pentland on July 14, 2026, providing severance protection in the event of termination without cause or resignation for Good Reason: a lump-sum payment equal to 12 months of base salary plus 100% of her target annual bonus for the fiscal year of termination, plus additional equity benefits (cut off in excerpt). The retention package is a standard executive-retention measure with a defined-but-moderate cost to shareholders only if triggered; it reflects Adobe's intent to retain senior leadership through potential strategic changes.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 173
AI summary

Steven Day filed a Form 3 initial ownership statement for Adobe Inc. (Nasdaq: ADBE) as of June 15, 2026, disclosing his role as Interim CFO and SVP with direct beneficial ownership of 4,618.689 shares. The 'Interim' CFO designation signals Adobe's CFO role is in transition — a minor governance event for investors to monitor until a permanent appointment is announced at this large-cap software company.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 118-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) reported Q2 fiscal 2026 financial results (quarter ended May 29, 2026) via press release on June 11, 2026, including non-GAAP metrics such as constant-currency revenue growth, non-GAAP operating income, non-GAAP net income, and non-GAAP diluted EPS — specific figures are in Exhibit 99.1. The same 8-K also covers an officer departure or appointment under Item 5.02 (details cut off in the excerpt). This is a high-visibility earnings event for a mega-cap creative software company; the officer change adds a minor governance dimension but is secondary to the quarterly results.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 218-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

ADBE disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-21). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 8 other (3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 S-8s · 1 earnings 8-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Adobe and NVIDIA Expand Collaboration to Speed Agentic Creationbusinesswire.com·1d agoBreakfast News: Chips Are Hot, Phones Are Notfool.com·2d agoAs AI Makes Software Cheaper to Build, Data and Distribution Become the Moatfool.com·2d agoQUICK SPARK: Adobe Is Showing Up in AI Search — Investors Need to Know What that Actually Meansbenzinga.com·3d agoThis Adobe Analyst Is No Longer Bullish; Here Are Top 5 Downgrades For Tuesdaybenzinga.com·4d ago

In themes

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Agentic AI & Enterprise Software

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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