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AAAAON

AAON, Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 101% YoYStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesQuiet on X (20 mentions/wk)
$AAON·$7.1B·Industrial - Machinery·Industrials
$74.89-3.1%YTD-0.7%1Y-25.9%
Price updated 9m ago·X counts updated 5d ago
AAAAON
$AAONAAON, Inc.
$74.89-3.12%20 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $AAON on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

20X posts · last 7 days
Sep 28Oct 11

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $AAON — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

An HVAC OEM printing 100% YoY revenue growth from the BasX data-center play — $83 feels fair, the Q3 print decides the next $10.

AAON's recent quarters show a company riding the AI data-center HVAC capex wave while keeping its commercial-HVAC business steady — Q2 revenue of $627M was up 101% YoY, and backlog metrics support the ramp.

  • The last four quarters' revenue growth reads +101%, +54%, +42%, +17%, driven by the BasX data-center-cooling business, with Q2 EPS of $0.69 beating $0.51 estimates by 35% confirming the mix is accretive.
  • Director David Stewart bought 1,000 shares at $74.66 on September 15 — a small buy but above today's $83.27 only in the window just before the rally, which usually indicates comfort with the operating trajectory into Q3.
  • The sell-side has 2026 EPS of $2.35 stepping to $3.54 in 2027 and $4.57 in 2028, putting the forward multiple around 23x on 2027 — rich for a cyclical, reasonable for one with a secular data-center kicker.

At $83 the stock is at the lower end of its 52-week range with the chart flat against the 50-day — a classic coil setup where the November 5 earnings print and any 2027 guidance signal is the trigger either way.

What to watch: November 5 Q3 earnings and the backlog disclosure split between data-center and commercial HVAC; any 2027 EPS commentary that would validate the sell-side's $3.54 target; follow-on director or officer buys at or above today's price.

On the calendar: Q3 earnings scheduled 2026-11-05

Read the AI verdict on $AAON

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Manufactures commercial HVAC systems — rooftop units, data center cooling, and air handlers — for US and Canadian markets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Industrial - Machinery sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AAON.

Industrial - Machinery · Industrials

No material change from last week — GE Vernova gas turbines remain a gating input for hyperscaler power procurement as data-center buildout accelerates.

What this means for $AAON

Neutral — AAON, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, focuses on the engineering, manufacturing, promotion, and sale of heating and air conditioning system

Industry benchmark

32-name peer basket
+17.0%YTD
-11.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
45.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
11.5%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
11.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-1.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
17.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
25.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 10, 2026$0.69$0.51+34.5%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.48$0.29+64.6%
Q4 2025Mar 2, 2026$0.39$0.45-13.3%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.37$0.33+12.1%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $0.57

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$627.0M+101.2%24.3%11.0%$0.69$-31.2M
Q1 FY26$496.9M+54.3%25.1%11.5%$0.49$-11.1M
Q4 FY25$424.2M+42.5%25.9%10.4%$0.39$-43.2M
Q3 FY25$384.2M+17.4%27.8%11.4%$0.37$-33.3M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 4 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.3B$2.1B – $2.4B$2.38$2.27 – $2.464
FY27$2.7B$2.6B – $2.8B$3.60$3.08 – $3.974
FY28$3.1B$3.1B – $3.2B$4.54$4.35 – $4.672

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.5%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-5.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-21.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 68.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.415-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuySep 15Stewart David RaymondDirector1.0K sh$75KBuyAug 28Matthew ShaubPresident457 sh$35KSellJun 2Rebecca ThompsonChief Accounting Officer4.2K sh$607KSellMay 29Gary D FieldsDirector19.0K sh$2.7MSellMay 26Wichman Gordon DouglasPresident3.0K sh$421KSellMay 26Gary D FieldsDirector21.2K sh$3.0MSellMay 14Casey KidwellChief Administration Officer3.2K sh$436KSellMay 13Tobolski Matthew JosephCEO8.0K sh$1.1MSellMay 13Gary D FieldsDirector19.1K sh$2.6MSellMay 12Gary D FieldsDirector31.3K sh$4.2M
1–10 of 11
+ 21 other (10 awards · 8 exempts · 2 gifts · 1 inkind) in window

See when $AAON insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 288-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

AAON, Inc. (AAON) furnished an updated investor presentation on August 28, 2026 in connection with its previously announced transition to operate under the trade name The Aaon Group. The presentation updates investors on the company's brand repositioning; full content is in Exhibit 99.2. This is a strategic communications Reg FD disclosure marking the corporate rebrand — signals organizational repositioning though financial implications depend on the presentation content.

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 108-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AAON, Inc. (AAON) announced Q2 2026 financial results and backlog on August 10, 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026), with an investor conference call held the same day at 5:00 P.M. ET. Specific financial figures are in the attached Exhibit 99.1 press release, not the filing body. Routine quarterly earnings disclosure; results require reviewing Exhibit 99.1.

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 63
AI summary

Patrick John Jermain filed an initial Form 3 as a newly appointed Director of AAON, Inc. (AAON), effective July 28, 2026. No securities are beneficially owned. This is a routine Form 3 for a new independent director added as part of AAON's board expansion from nine to eleven members.

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 63
AI summary

Robert L. Buttermore filed an initial Form 3 as a newly appointed Director of AAON, Inc. (AAON), effective July 28, 2026. No securities are beneficially owned. This is a routine Form 3 for a new independent director added as part of AAON's board expansion from nine to eleven members.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 308-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.03: Charter amendment
AI summary

AAON, Inc. (AAON) expanded its Board of Directors from nine to eleven members on July 28, 2026, adding two new Class III independent director positions and appointing Robert L. Buttermore III and Patrick J. Jermain upon the Governance Committee's recommendation; companion bylaw amendments reflect the larger board size. Neither new director holds initial equity. This governance expansion adds independent oversight capacity consistent with AAON's corporate transition toward the Aaon Group brand identity.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 88-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KShareholder voteMay 188-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 78-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
+ 10 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 1 routine 8-K · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Why Aaon (AAON) is a Top Momentum Stock for the Long-Termzacks.com·1d agoWhy Aaon (AAON) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Againzacks.com·8d agoAAON Inc (AAON) Stock Up 4.4% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 89/100gurufocus.com·10d ago23,550 AAON, Inc. $AAON Shares Sold by Ferguson Wellman Capital Management Inc.defenseworld.net·11d agoAAON Inc (AAON) Shares Fall 4.2% -- What GF Score of 90 Tells Investorsgurufocus.com·18d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $AAON on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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