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TMTMDX

TransMedics Group, Inc.

$TMDX·$2.6B·Medical - Devices·Healthcare
$81.55+6.6%YTD-37.2%1Y-36.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-28: 29 posts2026-07-29: 23 posts2026-07-30: 18 posts2026-07-31: 92 posts2026-08-01: 41 posts2026-08-02: 38 posts2026-08-03: 99 posts341+24%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 1h ago
TMTMDX
$TMDXTransMedics Group, Inc.
$81.55+6.59%341 posts+24%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TMDX, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-31

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

TransMedics running record flight-per-day cadence but the stock is 37% down YTD — Q2 lands Aug 4 with '~36 flights per day' YoY +70%.

TransMedics is the organ-transplant technology company whose Organ Care System (OCS) machines keep hearts, livers, and lungs viable outside the body during transport — a real category-creation medical-device play with a genuinely differentiated moat.

  • The operational metrics are strong: the National OCS Program is on pace for another record month of flights at ~36 per day with MoM growth ~7% and YoY growth ~70% — the operational demand is real and accelerating. Q1 revenue $174M (+21% YoY), 58% gross margin, 15% operating margin (positive at scale).
  • The tape has cracked: shares down 37% YTD and 29% TTM, at 17% of 52-week range and 30% below the 200-day — meaning the market is 'guilty until proven innocent' per sentiment, punishing every med-tech name as capital rotates into AI infrastructure. This is not a business problem, it's a sector-rotation event.
  • Insider tape is neutral-to-positive: recent A-Award grants to Corcoran ($1.27M), Hernandez ($1.86M), and CEO Hassanein ($8.05M on July 10) are equity awards (not open-market buys but also not sales) — meaning management is being paid in stock at what they consider a low price, which is a subtle positive signal.

Aug 4 Q2 print is the direct catalyst — a beat with continued 36+ flights-per-day operational commentary and a raised FY26 revenue guide restarts the equity toward $95. A miss on flights-per-day acceleration or any liver-data controversy re-emergence drops shares back to $60. Consensus FY26 EPS of $1.80 growing to $3.08 in FY27 (+70% growth on the earnings line) makes this cheap if the operational metrics translate to reported EPS.

Agrees with X sentimentX captures the operational trend accurately — 36 flights/day, +7% MoM, +70% YoY, TMDX liver data at ATC as upside potential, though bears note 'the market is not fully buying the flight data.' Fair take. The 'guilty until proven innocent' framing is the honest read of a med-tech getting punished during AI-infra rotation.

What to watch: Aug 4 Q2 earnings — a beat with continued 36+ flights-per-day operational commentary and a raised FY26 revenue guide restarts the equity toward $95. A miss on flights-per-day acceleration or any liver-data controversy re-emergence drops shares back to $60.

On the calendar: 2026-08-04 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment18 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-03

The read is bullish on TransMedics into next-week earnings. July flight-tracker data hit a record ~1,030 flights (~33.2/day), suggesting market-share gains even as overall transplants dipped MoM. Bulls point to strong OCS liver-data readouts, CEO share buying, and value at '13x 2028 operating profit, 3x 2028 revenue'. One holder models a guidance raise to +25% Y/Y before Europe operations. Straddles imply a >15% earnings move; some position adds happening now.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TMDX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes the Organ Care System, a warm perfusion platform preserving donor hearts, lungs, and livers outside the body to expand transplant supply.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Medical - Devices sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TMDX.

Medical - Devices · Healthcare

No material change from last week — ISRG's da Vinci 5 procedure growth (+23%) confirms surgical robotics has transitioned from premium to standard-of-care in major procedures.

What this means for $TMDX

Partial — Makes the Organ Care System, a warm perfusion platform preserving donor hearts, lungs, and livers outside the body to expand transplant supply; partial earnings exposure to medical - devices demand dynamics through its product portfolio.

Industry benchmark

20-name peer basket
+3.1%YTD
+18.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
13.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
14.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
6.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
41.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
59.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.30$0.62-51.6%
Q4 2025Feb 24, 2026$0.57$0.41+39.0%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$0.66$0.37+78.4%
Q2 2025Jul 30, 2025$0.92$0.48+91.7%
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $0.50

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$173.9M+21.2%58.2%7.6%$0.21$-12.1M
Q4 FY25$160.8M+32.2%58.1%13.2%$3.08$19.0M
Q3 FY25$143.8M+32.2%58.8%16.2%$0.71$61.9M
Q2 FY25$157.4M+37.7%61.4%23.2%$1.03$82.5M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$732.3M$727.9M – $740.8M$1.80$1.49 – $1.939
FY27$867.8M$861.5M – $882.3M$3.08$2.23 – $4.499
FY28$1.0B$970.0M – $1.0B$4.54$3.28 – $6.375
FY29$1.2B$1.2B – $1.2B$5.45$5.35 – $5.582

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.17%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+5.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-29.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 33.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.885-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 15Thomas J. GundersonDirector9.6K sh$722KSellMar 4Stephanie LovellDirector1.2K sh$178KSellMar 4David WeillDirector3.6K sh$524KSellMar 4Gerardo HernandezCFO5.9K sh$870KSellMar 2Anil P. RanganathSee remarks864 sh$120KSellMar 2Nicholas CorcoranSee remarks3.0K sh$413KSellMar 2Gerardo HernandezCFO375 sh$52K
+ 15 other (12 awards · 3 exempts) in window

See when $TMDX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteMay 218-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) filed an 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07). TransMedics is an Andover, Massachusetts-based medical technology company focused on organ transplant solutions listed on Nasdaq. Annual meeting results are routine governance disclosures.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 133
3/ANew insider — initial holdingsFeb 203/A
3New insider — initial holdingsFeb 123
+ 13 other (3 proxys · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 13Gs · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

TransMedics to Present at the Canaccord Genuity 46th Annual Growth Conferenceprnewswire.com·6d agoAnalysts Estimate TransMedics (TMDX) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out forzacks.com·7d agoDid TransMedics Group, Inc. Insiders Breach their Fiduciary Duties to Shareholders?prnewswire.com·10d agoTransMedics to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 4, 2026prnewswire.com·13d agoTransMedics Group, Inc. $TMDX Shares Bought by Bessemer Group Inc.defenseworld.net·14d ago

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Voices on X · top 10 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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