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SMSMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normBacked by solid revenue growthPrice and volume picking up
$SMCI·$16B·Computer Hardware·Technology
$24.17-2.1%YTD-17.6%1Y-54.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-11: 1,091 posts2026-07-12: 3,016 posts2026-07-13: 3,671 posts2026-07-14: 1,364 posts2026-07-15: 4,775 posts2026-07-16: 4,612 posts2026-07-17: 603 posts19,259+46%
Price updated 11h ago·X counts updated 10h ago
SMSMCI
$SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.
$24.17-2.07%19k posts+46%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $SMCI, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-18

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Cheap-again AI server builder coiled at a breakout level, with Kubernetes edge appliances as the fresh catalyst.

Super Micro is the AI-server maker that spent 2024-25 in the penalty box over accounting concerns and delisting risk, and is now trying to win back the credibility side of its story while the AI-datacenter cycle is still spending. The setup is a beaten-down operator right at a technical breakout level, with a real fresh product.

  • The Red Hat and Everpure edge-AI Kubernetes appliance launch is the substantive catalyst — it turns SMCI's hardware into a turnkey enterprise product, extending the AI-datacenter business into on-prem edge where sales cycles are shorter and margins tend to be better than raw servers.
  • The valuation is doing the heavy lifting — a trailing P/E near 20 and price-to-sales below 1 mean you're not paying a premium for the AI-server exposure; Loop Capital is pounding the table specifically on 'trading below worst-case scenario' math.
  • The technicals are set up: the downtrend line at $27.60 is the well-watched breakout trigger, with $35 as the next upside node — a break gets a lot of momentum sponsorship the stock has not had in a year.
  • The still-real risk is the balance sheet — free-cash-flow yield is deeply negative and debt-to-equity is near 0.9, so any working-capital wobble on this hyperscaler-heavy revenue mix is the way this coil resolves down.

From here it comes down to which side of $27.60 the stock closes on the next volume day — a clean break and the $35 objective is in play; a reject and the coil resolves back into the $22-24 base and the reset extends.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish breakout thesis on X — Loop Capital's undervaluation math, Kubernetes edge-AI launch as a real catalyst, $27.60 as the trigger — lines up with what the fundamentals actually support. The pushback is that the sample carries no bear voice, and the FCF and leverage picture is not what the chatter mentions.

What to watch: Whether SMCI closes above $27.60 on volume — that's the coil resolution. Also watch the September-quarter guide for signs the FCF drag is easing.

breakout setuppost accounting resetnegative fcf yield

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment23 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Super Micro chatter is bullish breakout. SMCI closed 7%+ higher on Wednesday after launching Kubernetes Edge AI appliances in collaboration with Red Hat and Everpure - the turnkey solution simplifies edge-AI deployment. Loop Capital is 'pounding the table' arguing SMCI is trading below worst-case scenario, using an ARM-adjacent framework of undervaluation. Options traders posted +125% wins on SMCI calls in copy-trading alerts and community sees a downtrend-line test at $27.60 as a breakout trigger. Traders describe $35 as the next upside node target with $28 ceiling and $29.5 as intermediate. No bear content.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $SMCI

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Assembles high-density AI servers and rack-scale systems integrating NVIDIA GPUs for hyperscale and enterprise data centers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Computer Hardware sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SMCI.

Computer Hardware · Technology

No material change from last week — STX and WDC (SanDisk spinoff) benefit from LLM training requiring petabyte-scale nearline storage infrastructure.

What this means for $SMCI

Direct beneficiary — Assembles high-density AI servers and rack-scale systems integrating NVIDIA GPUs for hyperscale and enterprise data centers; core operations sit in the path of the LLM training data storage demand pulling HDD/SSD production cycle.

Top industry ETF

$SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
+69.1%YTD
+111.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
20.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
4.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-27.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
18.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
8.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.9Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.84$0.62+36.1%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$0.69$0.49+40.8%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.35$0.37-6.6%
Q2 2025Aug 5, 2025$0.41$0.45-7.9%
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $0.70

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$10.2B+122.7%9.9%6.1%$0.81$-6.7B
Q2 FY26$12.7B+123.4%6.3%3.7%$0.67$-45.1M
Q1 FY26$5.0B-15.5%9.3%3.6%$0.28$-949.8M
Q4 FY25$5.8B+7.5%9.5%4.0%$0.33$840.9M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 13 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$39.7B$39.2B – $40.0B$2.60$2.54 – $2.6312
FY27$51.4B$47.5B – $56.2B$3.17$2.80 – $3.5013
FY28$60.1B$59.7B – $60.6B$3.65$3.26 – $4.129
FY29$60.9B$55.9B – $69.2B$3.54$3.16 – $4.174

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.11%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-27.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-29.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 563.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today5.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.945-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 41 other (20 exempts · 15 inkinds · 4 awards · 2 gifts) in window

See when $SMCI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJun 158-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 3.03 · Item 5.03: Charter amendment
AI summary

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) entered into a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01) and reported material modification of security holder rights (Item 3.03) along with charter/bylaw amendments (Item 5.03) in an 8-K filed June 15, 2026. Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the specific agreement terms and charter modification details are disclosed.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 128-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) entered an at-the-market (ATM) equity distribution agreement on June 11, 2026 with J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup to sell up to $1.25 billion of common stock over time, with agents earning up to 1.0% commission. This ATM program is one of three concurrent capital raises alongside a 45.45 million share primary offering and a 75 million depositary share mandatory convertible preferred offering. The combined capital program is intended to fund approximately $39 billion in AI server orders (Data Center Building Block Solutions) from more than 20 customers.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 12424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer offered 75,000,000 depositary shares (each representing a 1/20th interest in one share of 7.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock) with a liquidation preference of $50 per depositary share ($1,000 per preferred share). Each preferred share mandatorily converts into 30.3040 to 36.3640 common shares by June 1, 2029, based on a 20-day VWAP averaging period. This preferred offering is one leg of SMCI's three-part concurrent capital raise intended to fund approximately $39 billion in AI server order backlog, with the mandatory conversion mechanism creating significant future common stock dilution.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 12424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer's ATM prospectus supplement authorizes the sale of up to $1.25 billion in common stock over time through J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup as sales agents, who earn up to 1.0% of gross proceeds; SMCI common stock was trading at $29.27 on June 10, 2026. This ATM program is one of three concurrent capital raises alongside a fixed-price 45.45 million share equity offering and a 75 million depositary share mandatory convertible preferred offering.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 12424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer offered 45,454,545 shares of common stock at $27.50 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $1.25 billion ($1.22 billion net after underwriting discounts); underwriters hold a 30-day option for 6,818,181 additional shares. Proceeds, together with proceeds from the concurrent preferred stock and ATM offerings, are intended to fund approximately $39 billion in AI server order backlog (Data Center Building Block Solutions) from more than 20 customers. This is a highly dilutive capital raise that simultaneously signals strong AI infrastructure demand momentum.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 10424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer is offering 75,000,000 depositary shares (each representing a 1/20th interest in a share of Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, liquidation preference $1,000/share or $50/depositary share) in a preliminary 424B5 filed June 10, 2026. The preferred stock pays cumulative dividends at a rate to be determined, convertible mandatorily into common stock on approximately June 1, 2029, with cash or stock dividend options quarterly from September 2026. This preferred offering runs concurrently with a $1.25B common stock offering and a $2B ATM program, with proceeds intended to fund ~$39B in AI server orders from 20+ customers. The triple-tranche capital raise is highly dilutive but signals massive backlog-driven demand that is transformative for SMCI's growth trajectory.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 10424B5
AI summary

Super Micro Computer is raising $1.25 billion through a common stock offering at a last-reported price of $40.64 per share (June 9, 2026), with a 30-day underwriter overallotment option for up to an additional $187.5M in shares. The offering runs concurrently with a mandatory convertible preferred depositary share offering and a $2B ATM equity distribution program. Net proceeds, combined with the concurrent transactions, are earmarked to fund component purchases for approximately $39 billion of AI server orders recently received from more than 20 customers, with remaining proceeds for general corporate purposes including debt repayment. The massive three-part capital raise is significantly dilutive near-term but is directly tied to a historic AI infrastructure demand surge, making it a transformative financing event.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationJun 9S-3ASR
AI summary

Super Micro Computer filed an S-3ASR automatic shelf registration on June 9, 2026, registering an unspecified total dollar amount of securities (common stock, preferred stock, depositary shares, warrants, and other securities) for future issuance on a delayed and continuous basis under Rule 415. As a large accelerated filer, SMCI qualifies for the automatic shelf, which became immediately effective upon filing. This shelf registration was filed the day before SMCI's $1.25B common stock and $3.75B preferred depositary share offerings, serving as the legal foundation for those concurrent capital raises — a critical enabling document for the massive AI-server-driven financing program.

+ 23 other (5 13Gs · 5 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Can Super Micro Computer's RDHx Expansion Fuel AI Data Center Demand?zacks.com·2d agoTwo AI Server Bets, Two Outcomes: Dell Technologies vs Super Micro Computer247wallst.com·3d agoDell Falls 14%, HPE and Super Micro Slide as AI Hardware Stocks Give Back Gains247wallst.com·3d agoSupermicro Expands End-to-End DCBBS Liquid Cooling Portfolio with Rear Door Heat Exchangers for High-Density AI and HPC Infrastructureprnewswire.com·3d agoSMCI Drops 56% From Its 52-Week High: Time to Buy or Sell the Stock?zacks.com·4d ago

In themes

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AI Infrastructure

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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