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MUMUSA

Murphy USA Inc.

$MUSA·$11B·Specialty Retail·Consumer Cyclical
$536.18-7.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-30: 3 posts2026-07-31: 2 posts2026-08-01: 1 posts2026-08-02: 2 posts2026-08-03: 1 posts2026-08-04: 4 posts2026-08-05: 5 posts18
Price updated 1m ago·X counts updated 22h ago
MUMUSA
$MUSAMurphy USA Inc.
$536.18-7.70%18 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MUSA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-06

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Murphy USA beat Q2 EPS by 13% with revenue up 36% YoY — gasoline retailer / convenience store operator continuing consistent execution.

Murphy USA is a US retail gasoline and convenience-store operator — 1,700+ stations under Murphy USA (near Walmart) and Murphy Express (standalone) banners. The differentiated model is high-throughput low-cost gasoline with limited-SKU convenience-store attach, delivering above-industry economics.

The mechanics of the setup:

  • Q2 revenue was $6.81B, up 36% YoY and 41% QoQ — meaningful acceleration driven by gasoline volume + retail margin expansion.
  • Q2 EPS was $11.27 versus $9.95 expected — a 13.3% beat, one of the stronger recent surprises.
  • Q3 EPS estimate for November 4 is $8.09 — seasonal moderation expected.
  • Q2 operating margin at 4.5% is typical for the low-margin gasoline retail model — the earnings power is volume-driven, not margin-driven.
  • Free cash flow yield 2.2% supports the buyback / capital-return story.
  • At $10.7B market cap and 17.5x TTM P/E the multiple is reasonable for the consistent-execution track record.
  • ROIC 17.9% and ROE 94.5% (leveraged) reflect the capital-efficient operating model plus meaningful buyback history.
  • Debt-to-equity of 3.5 reflects the multi-year buyback strategy of returning capital via leveraged share repurchases.
  • The 'Top Momentum Stock' Zacks framing aligns with the beat cadence.
  • The absence of price data in the bundle is a data-quality artifact.

The path from here is defined by the November 4 Q3 print + gasoline volume trends. Continued volume growth + retail margin sustainability + capital return re-rates the stock; a gasoline demand slowdown or a Walmart-related site-count disruption resets it. Watch same-store gallons and merchandise margin as the qualitative tells.

What to watch: November 4 Q3 print — gasoline volume, retail margin, and merchandise trends. Volume growth + margin sustainability + capital return supports the stock; a demand slowdown or Walmart-related disruption resets it.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 2026 earnings

missing sentiment

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MUSA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Murphy USA Inc. specializes in providing retail gasoline and a variety of convenience store items. It manages a network of retail outlets operating under its well-known banners: Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek. By December 31, 2021, its extensive footprint included 1,679 retail fuel stations primarily concentrated across the Southeastern, Southwestern, and Midwestern regions of the United States. Established in 1996, the corporation maintains its headquarters in El Dorado, Arkansas.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Specialty Retail sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MUSA.

Specialty Retail · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Amazon's $200B AI infrastructure commitment and AI shopping agent deployment shifts purchase decisions from browsing to autonomous fulfillment, bypassing..

Top industry ETF

$XRTSPDR S&P Retail ETF
+7.7%YTD
+14.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
17.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
17.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
4.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
94.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
2.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
3.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$11.27$9.95+13.3%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$7.28$5.37+35.6%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$7.53$6.67+12.9%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$7.25$6.60+9.8%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $8.09

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$6.8B+36.0%-3.8%4.5%$11.33$-177.3M
Q1 FY26$4.8B+6.5%5.4%4.3%$7.36$221.7M
Q4 FY25$4.7B+0.7%6.0%4.6%$7.61$128.8M
Q3 FY25$5.1B-2.5%5.3%4.2%$6.83$67.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$22.0B$20.1B – $23.6B$33.34$30.78 – $35.779
FY27$21.3B$20.5B – $22.2B$30.31$27.51 – $34.079
FY28$21.6B$20.5B – $23.0B$32.60$28.35 – $34.775
FY29$22.5B$21.2B – $23.9B$30.53$28.29 – $33.072
FY30$23.1B$21.8B – $24.6B$32.79$30.38 – $35.522

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.81%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+1.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+22.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 16.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.295-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 5Diane N LandenDirector3.0K sh$1.6MSellMay 27Renee M BaconSVP, Chief Retail Officer1.1K sh$556KSellMay 15Keith A. EmerySVP, Chief Fuels Officer517 sh$297KSellMay 5Scott G. WoodwardSVP, Chief Merchandising Off.158 sh$95KSellMay 4Murphy Robert MadisonDirector41.5K sh$24.8MSellMar 5Scott G. WoodwardSVP Merchandising137 sh$58KSellMar 5Robert J ChumleySVP Innovation5.0K sh$2.1MSellFeb 26Keith A. EmerySVP Fuels899 sh$344KSellFeb 24Phillips Jeanne LinderDirector1.2K sh$456KSellFeb 23Renee M BaconSVP, Sales & Operations2.8K sh$1.1M
+ 25 other (14 awards · 7 exempts · 3 inkinds · 1 gift) in window

See when $MUSA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Murphy USA (MUSA) Beats Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimateszacks.com·1d agoMurphy USA Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com·1d agoWhy Murphy USA (MUSA) is a Top Momentum Stock for the Long-Termzacks.com·6d agoMurphy USA to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?zacks.com·7d agoMurphy USA (MUSA) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growthzacks.com·8d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $MUSA on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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