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MRMRNA

Moderna, Inc.

$MRNA·$25B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$71.03+1.9%YTD+133.7%1Y+152.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-06-23: 95 posts2026-06-24: 64 posts2026-06-25: 45 posts2026-06-26: 210 posts2026-06-27: 845 posts2026-06-28: 55 posts2026-06-29: 232 posts1,549+186%
Price updated 2m ago·X counts updated 20h ago
MRMRNA
$MRNAModerna, Inc.
$71.03+1.91%1.5k posts+186%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MRNA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-06-29

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Moderna just got an FDA advisory-committee unanimous yes on its flu vaccine and the stock has doubled YTD — the pivot from COVID one-trick into a real pipeline is finally landing.

Moderna is the mRNA pioneer whose business cratered when COVID demand normalized and is now in the middle of proving its platform can produce a second commercial franchise — flu vaccines, oncology candidates, and a CAR-T program. Friday's 12% intraday rip on the FDA AdCom vote is the most validating session in two years.

What changed underneath:

  • The FDA advisory committee voted 9-0 in favor of the benefit-risk profile of mRNA-1010, Moderna's seasonal flu vaccine — that is a clean unanimous read and the prerequisite for an FDA license that turns mRNA-1010 into Moderna's second commercial product.
  • Q1 revenue grew 264% YoY to $389M off a small base, but gross margin is still -146% and trailing operating margin is -153% — the income statement is in the rebuild phase, so the bet is on multi-year revenue compounding from the pipeline.
  • Druckenmiller publicly buying the dip provided the credibility narrative the bull case needed; bulls also cite a Phase 2 positivity readout and an 80% probability of Phase 3 interim success on a separate pipeline asset.
  • Insider activity is mixed but on net executive: Chief Medical Officer Hoge sold $2.7M after exercising options, and a couple of officers took routine F-InKind tax withholdings — no buying cluster to validate the rip, but no fire-sale either.

The acceleration runs into the next FDA decision on mRNA-1010 (the formal license) and an oncology data readout window. July 31 earnings is the first chance to update both the regulatory timeline and Phase 3 enrollment status; with the stock at the 96th percentile of its 52-week range, anything short of clean execution would invite a 15-20% pullback.

Agrees with X sentimentX is bullish on the AdCom unanimous vote, Druckenmiller's dip-buy and the biotech-rotation breakout via XBI — and the mechanics back the strategic turn even though gross margin is still -146%; the small contrarian camp's 'too-extended after 31% in two weeks' point is fair tactically but does not break the multi-year pipeline thesis.

What to watch: July 31 Q2 earnings — explicit FDA-license timeline for mRNA-1010, Phase 3 enrollment status on the oncology candidates, and any commercial-launch design framework; an FDA decision delay or a Phase 3 readout slip would punish a 96th-percentile chart position by 15-20%.

On the calendar: 2026-07-31 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment40 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-29

Moderna got a unanimous FDA advisory committee vote in favor of the benefit-risk profile of mRNA-1010 (its influenza vaccine). The stock broke out of its wedge with +12.59% on Friday on heavy volume and is now flagging back to prior highs. Bulls anchor to phase 2 positivity translating to ~80% probability of phase 3 success per sell-side. Posters call for $80-100 targets as a 'squeeze hard' setup. The biotech rotation (XBI breakout) supports the move. Bear voice mostly notes Moderna trading at higher levels feels familiar; tone is loud bullish breakout long.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MRNA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics, known for its COVID-19 vaccine and diversifying into RSV, flu, and oncology.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MRNA.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

GLP-1 pipeline competition is the dominant structural driver — the ADA conference crystallized oral formulations, dual agonists, and differentiated mechanisms competing for a potential $150B obesity market by 2030. QURE's FDA accelerated approval for AMT-130 (Huntington's disease) this week confirms gene therapy regulatory momentum is still flowing capital to non-GLP-1 precision medicine.

What this means for $MRNA

Partial — Moderna's mRNA platform positions it in the GLP-1 mRNA formulation race alongside RSV and flu vaccine diversification; advancing oral GLP-1 mRNA delivery approaches.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+11.9%YTD
+50.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-37.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-153%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-8.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
8.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-36.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-13.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 1, 2026$-3.40$-4.45+23.6%
Q4 2025Feb 13, 2026$-2.11$-2.54+16.9%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-0.51$-1.87+72.7%
Q2 2025Aug 1, 2025$-2.13$-2.99+28.8%
Next earningsFri, Jul 31·consensus EPS $-2.00

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$389.0M+263.6%-146%-357%$-3.40$-692.0M
Q4 FY25$678.0M-29.1%33.3%-126%$-2.11$912.0M
Q3 FY25$1.0B-45.2%0.8%-25.6%$-0.51$-880.0M
Q2 FY25$142.0M-35.7%16.2%-639%$-2.13$-922.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 18 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.1B$2.0B – $2.1B-$8.59-$9.78 – -$7.2217
FY27$2.5B$1.9B – $4.4B-$4.72-$6.19 – -$0.0917
FY28$3.1B$3.1B – $3.2B-$2.90-$6.11 – $0.6818
FY29$5.1B$4.3B – $7.6B-$0.03-$0.05 – -$0.0311
FY30$6.8B$5.7B – $10.1B$2.66$2.10 – $4.349

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.100%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+35.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+72.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 370.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.035-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 15Stephen HogePresident53.3K sh$2.7MSellJun 4Klinger Shannon ThymeChief Legal Officer3.5K sh$174KSellMay 21Noubar AfeyanDirector9.3K sh$434KSellMay 15Stephen HogePresident53.3K sh$2.6MSellMay 1Abbas HussainDirector5.7K sh$265KSellMar 2Klinger Shannon ThymeChief Legal Officer13.9K sh$726K
+ 45 other (24 exempts · 12 inkinds · 9 awards) in window

See when $MRNA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KCharter amendmentMay 118-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

MRNA held its Annual Meeting of stockholders around 2026-05-11 (8-K Item 5.07). The meeting was adjourned, likely due to insufficient quorum. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

8-KMaterial agreementMar 58-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
8-KPress release / Reg FDFeb 118-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
8-KPress release / Reg FDJan 128-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDJan 58-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 13 other (5 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

MRNA Stock Jumps to 52-Week High on Expansion Plans Beyond Vaccineszacks.com·1d agoStock Of The Day: Will The Moderna Rally Continue?benzinga.com·1d agoModerna stock soars as cancer pipeline and CAR-T push ignite optimisminvezz.com·4d agoModerna Is Up 13% Today: Is It Outperforming Other Vaccine Stocks Like Merck and Pfizer?247wallst.com·4d agoWhy Moderna Stock Is Soaring and Leading the S&P 500 Todaybarrons.com·4d ago

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