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MRMRNA

Moderna, Inc.

$MRNA·$23B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$63.32-0.5%YTD+91.0%1Y+137.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-08: 21 posts2026-08-09: 24 posts2026-08-10: 55 posts2026-08-11: 46 posts2026-08-12: 63 posts2026-08-13: 48 posts2026-08-14: 23 posts280+24%
Price updated 1d ago·X counts updated 1d ago
MRMRNA
$MRNAModerna, Inc.
$63.32-0.52%280 posts+24%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MRNA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-14

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

First mRNA flu vaccine (mFlusiva) FDA approved — real platform validation, but regulatory-policy risk is the honest offset.

Moderna is the mRNA-vaccine platform whose post-pandemic collapse gave way to a hard reboot around a broader pipeline — and Q3 just delivered the FDA approval of mFlusiva, the first mRNA seasonal-flu vaccine. The stock has doubled off the lows.

  • The mFlusiva approval is the real catalyst: FDA clearance for the first mRNA-based seasonal flu vaccine (initially for adults 50+, with 65+ pending) validates the platform for a market that dwarfs COVID and gives Moderna a durable annual revenue stream — the structural inflection bulls have been modeling.
  • The underlying business is still burning: Q1 revenue of $389M grew off a small base with a -145% gross margin and -368% operating margin — the operational math is currently ugly, and the -87% five-year total return bears cite is a real memory-holding weight on the multiple.
  • The pipeline optionality is stackable: bulls point to potential HIV expansion (share against Gilead), oncology programs, and personalized cancer vaccines — each individually is a real shot on goal, and collectively they justify the $23B market cap on option-value math rather than current earnings.
  • The regulatory-and-political overhang is the honest offset: Trump's executive order to split the MMR vaccine into three separate shots is the kind of regulatory intervention that specifically penalizes mRNA-vaccine developers — a policy risk unique to this cohort.

Coming into Nov 5 earnings, the tape needs mFlusiva launch commentary (channel commitments, distribution partners) and pipeline advancement disclosures. A clean flu-vaccine ramp plus visible pipeline progress extends the momentum; another regulatory intervention or Trump executive order specific to mRNA could compress the multiple regardless of company execution.

Agrees with X sentimentPartly with each side. Bulls have the right catalyst read (mFlusiva approval, HIV optionality) supporting the reversion trade. Bears have the right structural concern (worst S&P 500 name over five years, Trump MMR executive order) that specifically penalizes mRNA developers. The stock is priced for the pipeline optionality landing on schedule.

What to watch: Nov 5 Q3 earnings — mFlusiva launch channel commitments and distribution partners, plus pipeline advancement disclosures. A clean flu-vaccine ramp extends the momentum; another mRNA-specific regulatory intervention compresses the multiple regardless of execution.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠20 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-14 · top-engagement diverged

Posters are split. Bearish thread points to a Trump executive order splitting up childhood MMR vaccines. Bullish counter cites Moderna's YTD rally as a template for PFE, calls for buying the dip, and long-setup mentions in watchlists. Sentiment ends up genuinely mixed rather than one-sided.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MRNA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics, known for its COVID-19 vaccine and diversifying into RSV, flu, and oncology.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MRNA.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

No material change from last week — ADA conference oral formulation competition is bifurcating biotech multiples between GLP-1 platform holders and precision oncology innovators.

What this means for $MRNA

Partial — Develops mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics, known for its COVID-19 vaccine and diversifying into RSV, flu, and oncology; partial earnings exposure to biotechnology demand dynamics through its product portfolio.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+12.1%YTD
+44.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-37.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-153%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-8.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
8.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-36.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-13.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 31, 2026$-1.97$-2.03+3.0%
Q1 2026May 1, 2026$-3.40$-4.45+23.6%
Q4 2025Feb 13, 2026$-2.11$-2.54+16.9%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-0.51$-1.87+72.7%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $-1.38

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$389.0M+263.6%-146%-357%$-3.40$-692.0M
Q4 FY25$678.0M-29.1%33.3%-126%$-2.11$912.0M
Q3 FY25$1.0B-45.2%0.8%-25.6%$-0.51$-880.0M
Q2 FY25$142.0M-35.7%16.2%-639%$-2.13$-922.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 16 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.1B$1.9B – $2.1B-$8.67-$9.51 – -$7.5016
FY27$2.5B$1.9B – $4.3B-$4.77-$6.30 – -$0.0915
FY28$3.3B$2.2B – $7.3B-$2.74-$4.33 – $0.6416
FY29$5.2B$4.2B – $8.6B$0.21$0.15 – $0.3815
FY30$6.9B$5.5B – $11.3B$2.64$1.96 – $4.8215

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.65%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+4.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+36.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 372.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.905-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 5Stephane BancelCEO499.2K sh$28.7MSellJul 15Stephen HogePresident53.3K sh$3.6MSellJun 15Stephen HogePresident53.3K sh$2.7MSellJun 4Klinger Shannon ThymeChief Legal Officer3.5K sh$174KSellMay 21Noubar AfeyanDirector9.3K sh$434KSellMay 15Stephen HogePresident53.3K sh$2.6MSellMay 1Abbas HussainDirector5.7K sh$265KSellMar 2Klinger Shannon ThymeChief Legal Officer13.9K sh$726K
+ 52 other (28 exempts · 13 inkinds · 11 awards) in window

See when $MRNA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 103
AI summary

A new director of Moderna Inc. (MRNA) filed an initial Form 3 on July 10, 2026, disclosing no beneficially owned securities of Moderna. This filing initiates the director's reporting obligations under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 88-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Moderna announced that Michael McDonnell, former Chief Financial Officer of Biogen, has been appointed to the company's Board of Directors. Concurrently, existing director Pablo Legorreta was reassigned to the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee to optimize committee composition. McDonnell brings deep biopharma finance expertise from his tenure at Biogen. The board addition signals Moderna's continued investment in financial governance as the company navigates the post-COVID transition to its broader respiratory and oncology vaccine pipeline.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 303
AI summary

Ester Banque Soria, Chief Commercial Officer of Moderna, filed a Form 3 initial beneficial ownership statement as of June 15, 2026. Administrative disclosure.

8-KCharter amendmentMay 118-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

MRNA held its Annual Meeting of stockholders around 2026-05-11 (8-K Item 5.07). The meeting was adjourned, likely due to insufficient quorum. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

8-KMaterial agreementMar 58-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
+ 14 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Moderna, Inc. $MRNA Shares Acquired by Contravisory Investment Management Inc.defenseworld.net·6d agoModerna Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Cost Cuts and Pipeline Milestoneszacks.com·9d agoThese New Drugs Could Fuel Fresh Highs for Biotech and Pharma Stocksbarrons.com·9d agoThis new kind of flu shot by Moderna has just been approved by the FDAfastcompany.com·9d agoModerna Stock Flashing Intriguing ‘Buy The Dip' Signalforbes.com·9d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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