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MEMED

Medifast, Inc.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX mentions rising faster than the marketPrice and volume picking up
$MED·$145M·Specialty Business Services·Industrials
$12.14-1.1%YTD+22.4%1Y-6.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-29: 2 posts2026-07-30: 2 posts2026-07-31: 1 posts2026-08-01: 0 posts2026-08-02: 0 posts2026-08-03: 11 posts2026-08-04: 39 posts55
Price updated 12m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
MEMED
$MEDMedifast, Inc.
$12.14-1.14%55 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MED, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-05

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Medifast jumped 34% today after beating Q2 by 57% — the Optavia weight-loss brand is coiling with GLP-1 tailwinds turning to opportunity.

Medifast Inc. is the parent of Optavia, a direct-to-consumer weight-loss and health-and-wellness program with coach-based community distribution.

  • The Q2 print showed genuine execution against low expectations: EPS beat by 56.9% on the August 3 print; Q2 revenue of $76.4M declined 27.6% year-over-year (post-GLP-1-disruption base effect) with gross margin at 69.9% and operating margin at -5.7% — meaning coach productivity is improving even as top-line still declines, and the two consecutive 57-65% beats reflect operational discipline.
  • The valuation reflects the turnaround stage: negative trailing PE and 0.5x sales at $145M market cap for a business generating $280M in FY26 revenue is a distressed multiple; the analyst FY26 EPS estimate of -$1.85 improving to -$0.60 in FY27 shows continued cash-burn without an obvious profitability path.
  • The setup shows exactly the turnaround coiling character: sitting at 66% of the 52-week range with +18% above the 50-day moving average and +17% above the 200-day — the tape is starting to reprice; today's +34.3% move on 3.7x normal volume confirms institutional repositioning.

With Q2 behind and November 2 Q3 up next, the coil resolves on continued coach productivity improvements. Bull setup: a Q3 print with revenue-decline stabilizing above -15% plus specific commentary on Optavia-GLP-1-companion product traction. Bear invalidation: another quarter of 25%+ revenue decline or a specific coach-count contraction signal.

What to watch: November 2 Q3 earnings. Revenue-decline stabilizing above -15% plus Optavia-GLP-1-companion product traction extends the coil upward; another quarter of 25%+ revenue decline or coach-count contraction signal is the invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-11-02 — Q3 earnings

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Weight management company operating the OPTAVIA coaching program with meal replacement products for diet and metabolic health.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Specialty Business Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MED.

Specialty Business Services · Industrials

No material change from last week — new Diehl Defence agreement for space-based early warning adds government defense to its maritime, weather, and aviation data streams.

Industry benchmark

6-name peer basket
-11.8%YTD
-25.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-7.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-5.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-12.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
69.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 3, 2026$-0.28$-0.65+56.9%
Q1 2026May 4, 2026$-0.19$-0.55+65.5%
Q4 2025Feb 17, 2026$-0.55$-0.76+27.6%
Q3 2025Nov 3, 2025$-0.21$-0.01-2000.0%
Next earningsMon, Nov 2·consensus EPS $-0.60

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$76.4M-27.6%69.9%-5.7%$-0.28$728K
Q1 FY26$76.0M-34.3%68.1%-1.4%$-0.19$-836K
Q4 FY25$75.1M-36.9%69.4%-10.4%$-1.65$-6.6M
Q3 FY25$89.4M-36.2%69.5%-4.6%$-0.21$10.8M

Forward consensus

2-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$279.7M$279.7M – $279.7M-$1.85-$1.85 – -$1.851
FY27$256.0M$256.0M – $256.0M-$0.60-$0.60 – -$0.601

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.52%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+10.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+9.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatTiny float · 7.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today4.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.685-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyMay 11Scott SchlackmanDirector2.5K sh$31KBuyMay 8Scott SchlackmanDirector2.5K sh$32KBuyMar 20Daniel R ChardCEO17.7K sh$179K
+ 18 other (9 awards · 9 inkinds) in window

See when $MED insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 178-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

MED made a Regulation FD disclosure to provide material information simultaneously to all market participants. The disclosure relates to announcing the rebranding of OPTAVIA. The full disclosure is attached as Exhibit 99.1. Reg FD prevents selective disclosure of material non-public information; investor presentations and press releases are commonly furnished under Item 7.01 for fair access by all MED investors.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsJul 103/A
AI summary

One Reporting filed a Form 3/A reporting initial beneficial ownership of MED securities. The form establishes the reporting person's baseline ownership position. Form 3 must be filed within 10 days of becoming a director, officer, or 10%-or-greater shareholder. This is an administrative filing that anchors future insider-transaction reporting for MED.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 18-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
3New insider — initial holdingsMay 283
3New insider — initial holdingsMay 283
8-KOfficer or director changeMay 268-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 273
SC 13DActivist position (5%+)Mar 20SC 13D
+ 19 other (7 13Gs · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 proxys · 2 10-Qs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Medifast Q2 Loss Narrower Than Expected, Coach Productivity Improveszacks.com·2d agoMedifast, Inc. (MED) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·3d agoMedifast Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·3d agoMedifast (MED) Reports Q2 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimateszacks.com·3d agoMedifast Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com·3d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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