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HDHD

The Home Depot, Inc.

$HD·$342B·Home Improvement·Consumer Cyclical
$343.30+1.3%YTD-0.0%1Y-8.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-03: 65 posts2026-07-04: 17 posts2026-07-05: 71 posts2026-07-06: 160 posts2026-07-07: 173 posts2026-07-08: 255 posts2026-07-09: 234 posts978
Price updated 3d ago·X counts updated 3d ago
HDHD
$HDThe Home Depot, Inc.
$343.30+1.35%978 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $HD, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-12

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Category leader compounding on a 5% comp; Aug 18 print has to defend the recent 25% run.

Home Depot is the dominant US home-improvement retailer — a real business generating $170B annualized revenue at 12% operating margins, and the primary beneficiary of any DIY + Pro-contractor rotation. The stock is flat YTD but has rallied 25% off the April lows into Aug 18 earnings.

  • The fundamentals inflected: Q1 revenue grew 4.8% YoY to $41.8B at 12% op margin (Q4 was -3.8% at 10%) — a real reacceleration from Q4 weakness, and the +7.5% Q4 EPS surprise + +0.6% Q1 surprise say the guide-set was conservative.
  • Valuation stays fair even after the rally: ~22x trailing / ~23x forward EPS on a business generating 5% FCF yield with 20% ROIC and durable pricing power. GuruFocus fair value at $381 vs $343 is a 10% margin of safety.
  • Interest-rate sensitivity is the primary risk-reward driver — HD's tape is highly correlated to 30-year mortgage direction, so recent rate stabilization is what's letting the comp recover, and any rate-shock spike takes the tape back hard.
  • Macro tailwinds are real: expanded delivery for military families overseas (small but real), and a $106M DIS dark-pool buy following HD accumulation the prior day is institutional accumulation into a specific setup.

Aug 18 Q2 earnings + FY26 guide validates the 25% run. A comp at flat-to-positive + op margin above 13% + reaffirmed FY26 pushes the stock through $355 toward GF Fair Value. A comp guide-down, rate-shock surprise, or Pro-segment softness turns 39th-percentile positioning back toward $320.

Agrees with X sentimentThe 19-post sample is muddied by the Robinhood-chain $HD memecoin, but the real equity signal (Rep. Doggett's DRIP buy + expanded military delivery + $106M DIS dark-pool buy + 25% two-month rally) is directionally right. Where the crowd is thin is the daily bearish-engulfing chart pattern that appeared after the run — that's the specific technical tell that says positioning is stretched into Aug 18.

What to watch: Aug 18 Q2 earnings + FY26 guide. Comp print at flat-to-positive + op margin above 13% + reaffirmed FY26 pushes the stock through $355 toward GF Fair Value. A comp guide-down, a rate-shock surprise, or Pro-segment softness turns 39th-percentile 52w positioning back toward $320.

On the calendar: 2026-08-18 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠19 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-12 · top-engagement diverged

Posts describe Home Depot hitting the top of a 1-year channel range with a bearish engulfing daily reversal after a 25% rally, and RS versus S&P still in a downtrend. Rep. Lloyd Doggett bought $1K-$15K worth. Content also covers a separate Solana memecoin ticker $HD (Hood Domains) with heavy shilling. Dark-pool buys were flagged.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $HD

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates 2,300+ home improvement stores in North America selling lumber, appliances, tools, and supplies to DIY and professional customers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Home Improvement sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $HD.

Home Improvement · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — elevated mortgage rates depress existing home sales and suppress the renovation-on-move trigger that drives large-ticket HD and LOW revenue.

What this means for $HD

Direct beneficiary — Operates 2,300+ home improvement stores in North America selling lumber, appliances, tools, and supplies to DIY and professional customers; core operations sit in the path of the elevated mortgage rate suppression of renovation and move-up demand.

Top industry ETF

$XLYConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR
-2.4%YTD
+5.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
22.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
20.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
12.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
113%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
33.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
4.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 19, 2026$3.43$3.41+0.6%
Q4 2025Feb 24, 2026$2.72$2.53+7.5%
Q3 2025Nov 18, 2025$3.74$3.83-2.3%
Q2 2025Aug 19, 2025$4.68$4.72-0.8%
Next earningsTue, Aug 18·consensus EPS $4.71

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$41.8B+4.8%33.0%11.9%$3.31$5.2B
Q4 FY25$38.2B-3.8%32.6%10.1%$2.59$2.3B
Q3 FY25$41.4B+2.8%33.4%12.9%$3.63$3.1B
Q2 FY25$45.3B+4.9%33.4%14.5%$4.59$3.7B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 26 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY27$171.0B$169.3B – $178.5B$14.95$14.79 – $15.0926
FY28$177.5B$174.2B – $186.7B$16.08$15.58 – $16.3926
FY29$185.1B$185.0B – $185.2B$17.48$16.68 – $17.8219
FY30$192.6B$188.9B – $198.2B$19.09$18.62 – $19.8212
FY31$195.7B$191.9B – $201.4B$19.80$19.31 – $20.5617

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.39%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+5.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-2.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 995.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.955-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMar 4Richard V McphailCFO2.5K sh$941KSellMar 4John A. DeatonEVP - Supply Chain & Prod. Dev1.8K sh$662K
+ 47 other (30 awards · 16 inkinds · 1 other) in window

See when $HD insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KCharter amendmentMay 268-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

HD (HD) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on multiple proposals. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 93
AI summary

The Home Depot Inc. (HD) filed a Form 3 initial statement of beneficial ownership for newly appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer Bell, who holds no shares of common stock. This routine filing establishes the baseline ownership record for the new executive within 10 days of appointment. The zero-share position is common for newly appointed officers prior to receiving equity grants. No derivative securities were reported.

+ 16 other (2 11-Ks · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 PX14A6Gs · 2 13Gs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Home Depot vs. Lowe's: A Look at Recent Revenue Trends for These Home Improvement Giantsfool.com·2d agoA Look at The Home Depot Inc (HD) After 1.4% Gain -- GF Value $381.80 vs Price $343.30gurufocus.com·3d agoThe Best Days to Buy Stocks May Already Be on the Calendarinvestorplace.com·4d agoHome Depot (HD) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Knowzacks.com·5d agoDow Jones Drops 1.4% as Trump Declares Iran Deal "Over"fool.com·5d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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