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HCHCC

Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX mentions rising faster than the marketMoving on elevated volumeBacked by solid revenue growth
$HCC·$4.6B·Coal·Energy
$87.93-4.2%YTD+3.4%1Y+37.8%
Price updated 14m ago·X counts updated 6d ago
HCHCC
$HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.
$87.93-4.22%39 posts1.4×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $HCC on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

39X posts · last 7 days
Sep 1Sep 13
Chatter Meter
1.4×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $HCC's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 93% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Bullish and quiet, with users celebrating new highs this week and citing Mohnish Pabrai's estimated $57 cost basis implying a roughly 19% normalized free-cash-flow yield, a level at which "both companies could theoretically retire their entire market cap through buybacks alone in under seven years." One post flags a caveat, noting that on August 19 the CEO and two insiders sold about $6.1M worth at prices near $105.

Read what X is saying about $HCC

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $HCC — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-09-18

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Met coal producer +45% TTM with mixed EPS cadence and heavy CEO distribution.

Warrior Met Coal is +45% TTM at $91.80, at the 61st percentile of its 52-week range with mixed EPS surprises — Q2 EPS $1.65 topped by 17.9%; prior three quarters ranged from a big miss to in-line. TTM P/E 25.7x, EV/EBITDA 12.3x, 14% operating margin.

  • CEO Walter Scheller sold in two 50K-share tranches on 19 Aug at $105 and 24 Aug at $110 — $10.75M combined distribution near recent highs
  • Officer Chopin sold $336K at $104.02 on 19 Aug; Jupiter Topco took a $1.83M position per 4 Sep 13F headline
  • X frames HCC as a Mohnish Pabrai style setup with 19% normalized FCF yield and buyback-only-market-cap-retirement thesis, but flags the CEO's ~$6.1M August sale as a caveat

Q3 earnings on 4 Nov is the near-term test; met-coal spot price, longwall move timing, and any capital-return update drive the reaction.

Agrees with X sentimentX frames HCC as a Pabrai-style FCF story with a real caveat around the CEO's $6.1M August sale; the fundamentals support the value read but insider distribution is meaningful.

What to watch: Q3 earnings 4 Nov, met-coal spot price, longwall move timing, capital-return update, and further CEO distribution.

On the calendar: Q3 earnings on 2026-11-04

Read the AI verdict on $HCC

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Warrior Met Coal is a U.S. producer of metallurgical coal exported primarily to international steelmakers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Coal sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $HCC.

Coal · Energy

Metallurgical coal demand tracks global steel capacity utilization; HCC's premium hard coking coal serves European and Asian blast furnace operators. AREC's critical minerals pivot — germanium and rare earth extraction via its ReElement Technologies subsidiary — may reframe its equity story beyond ESG-constrained coal as it joins the Critical Minerals Institute.

What this means for $HCC

Direct beneficiary — Warrior Met Coal's premium hard coking coal is a direct input to blast furnace steel production; export pricing and volume track European and Asian steel capacity utilization, with ESG constraints limiting institutional capital but not operating demand.

Top industry ETF

$XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR
+44.2%YTD
+43.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
25.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
13.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
10.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
41.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$1.65$1.40+17.9%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$1.37$1.41-2.8%
Q4 2025Feb 12, 2026$0.44$0.62-29.0%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$0.70$-0.51+236.3%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $1.39

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$509.7M+70.6%31.9%18.5%$1.65$103.4M
Q1 FY26$458.6M+53.8%98.2%17.3%$1.37$-91.9M
Q4 FY25$384.1M+29.1%13.8%9.1%$0.44$-18.1M
Q3 FY25$327.9M+0.0%11.3%6.1%$0.70$12.8M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.0B$2.0B – $2.0B$6.09$5.06 – $7.124
FY27$2.2B$2.0B – $2.4B$8.21$4.36 – $12.054
FY28$2.3B$2.0B – $2.6B$9.30$3.81 – $14.125

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.3.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.54%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-5.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-2.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 51.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.695-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 24Walter J SchellerCEO50.0K sh$5.5MSellAug 19Brian M ChopinCHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER3.2K sh$336KSellAug 19Walter J SchellerCEO50.0K sh$5.3MSellAug 19Stephen D. WilliamsDirector4.8K sh$500KSellJun 2Kelli K. GantSee remarks20.0K sh$2.2M
+ 10 other (5 exempts · 5 awards) in window

See when $HCC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 218-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 11 other (6 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Merck Receives Positive EU CHMP Opinion for KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) Plus Padcev® (enfortumab vedotin-ejfv) as Perioperative Treatment for Adults With Resectable Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC)gurufocus.com·1d agoJupiter Topco LLC Takes $1.83 Million Position in Warrior Met Coal $HCCdefenseworld.net·15d agoTop 3 Materials Stocks That Could Sink Your Portfolio This Monthbenzinga.com·18d agoWarrior Met Coal CEO Sells 50,000 Shares for $5.5 Millionfool.com·23d ago131,115 Shares in Warrior Met Coal $HCC Acquired by Deutsche Bank AGdefenseworld.net·26d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $HCC on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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