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TickerTalks›$HCC
HCHCC

Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 71% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesQuiet on X (53 mentions/wk)
$HCC·$4.9B·Coal·Energy
$89.94+0.5%YTD+5.8%1Y+35.1%
Price updated 2h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
HCHCC
$HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.
$89.94+0.54%53 posts1.1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $HCC on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

53X posts · last 7 days
Sep 28Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1.1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $HCC's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 83% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Bullish and quiet, with users celebrating new highs this week and citing Mohnish Pabrai's estimated $57 cost basis implying a roughly 19% normalized free-cash-flow yield, a level at which "both companies could theoretically retire their entire market cap through buybacks alone in under seven years." One post flags a caveat, noting that on August 19 the CEO and two insiders sold about $6.1M worth at prices near $105.

Read what X is saying about $HCC

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $HCC — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Alabama metallurgical-coal producer with Q2 revenue +71% YoY, 18.5% op margin and new 52-week highs — plus a $6.1M August insider sell at $105.

Warrior Met mines coking coal from two Alabama underground operations and ships overseas to blast-furnace steelmakers, so revenue depends on seaborne met-coal prices and shipment volume.

  • Q2 FY26 revenue $509.7M, +70.6% YoY, operating margin 18.5% versus 9.1% in Q4 FY25 — margin expansion is a volume-and-price story on new mine ramp
  • TTM: 26x earnings, 3.4x sales, 10% ROE, 42% gross margin, 14% operating margin, debt-to-equity 0.10 — unlevered against a cyclical commodity
  • 2026 estimates: $2.01B revenue, $6.30 EPS; 2027 $2.21B, $8.21 EPS — modeling further earnings growth
  • YTD +0.3%, trailing-12m +35% — multiple caught up with the earnings story
  • Aug 19: CEO and two insiders sold roughly $6.1M at prices near $105 — insider timing cuts against the long thesis

The operating fundamentals are the strongest in four quarters but trade against a classic cyclical signature: insiders trimming into strength while retail cites hypothetical normalized buyback math — the met-coal price assumption is doing most of the work.

Agrees with X sentimentX bulls cite Mohnish Pabrai's estimated $57 cost basis and roughly 19% normalized FCF yield, with one voice flagging the Aug 19 CEO plus two-insider $6.1M sale near $105. The structural read matches: strong operating acceleration, but the insider print warrants acknowledgement rather than dismissal.

What to watch: Nov 4 Q3 earnings and realized met-coal pricing — whether volume and shipment ramp sustain the Q2 margin step-up or peak alongside the cyclical print.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $HCC

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Warrior Met Coal is a U.S. producer of metallurgical coal exported primarily to international steelmakers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Coal sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $HCC.

Coal · Energy

Seaborne thermal coal demand from India and Southeast Asia sustains export volumes as US and European utilities wind down coal generation, creating a structural geographic shift in the customer base. Met coal remains resilient on steelmaking demand from infrastructure build-out in developing markets; regulatory risk in Western markets is the key long-cycle headwind.

What this means for $HCC

Partial — Warrior Met Coal is a U.S. producer of metallurgical coal exported primarily to international steelmakers.

Top industry ETF

$XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR
+39.5%YTD
+60.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
25.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
13.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
10.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
41.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$1.65$1.40+17.9%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$1.37$1.41-2.8%
Q4 2025Feb 12, 2026$0.44$0.62-29.0%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$0.70$-0.51+236.3%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $1.51

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$509.7M+70.6%31.9%18.5%$1.65$103.4M
Q1 FY26$458.6M+53.8%98.2%17.3%$1.37$-91.9M
Q4 FY25$384.1M+29.1%13.8%9.1%$0.44$-18.1M
Q3 FY25$327.9M+0.0%11.3%6.1%$0.70$12.8M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.0B$2.0B – $2.0B$6.63$5.51 – $7.754
FY27$2.3B$2.1B – $2.5B$9.97$5.30 – $14.644
FY28$2.5B$2.0B – $3.3B$11.41$3.63 – $23.915

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.56%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-7.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-1.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 51.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.745-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 24Walter J SchellerCEO50.0K sh$5.5MSellAug 19Brian M ChopinCHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER3.2K sh$336KSellAug 19Walter J SchellerCEO50.0K sh$5.3MSellAug 19Stephen D. WilliamsDirector4.8K sh$500KSellJun 2Kelli K. GantSee remarks20.0K sh$2.2M
+ 10 other (5 exempts · 5 awards) in window

See when $HCC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 218-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 11 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Warrior Sets Date for Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Announcement and Investor Conference Callbusinesswire.com·2d agoBlack Bear Value Partners Q3 2026 - Top 5 Businesses We Ownseekingalpha.com·3d agoWarrior Met Coal: A Volume Story Still Priced Like A Coal Price Betseekingalpha.com·20d agoWarren Buffett's Succession Triggers Search for His Spiritual Successors247wallst.com·26d agoMerck Receives Positive EU CHMP Opinion for KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) Plus Padcev® (enfortumab vedotin-ejfv) as Perioperative Treatment for Adults With Resectable Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC)gurufocus.com·29d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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