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CNCNCK

Coincheck Group N.V.

$CNCK·$291M·Asset Management - Cryptocurrency·Financial Services
$2.11+1.4%YTD-13.1%1Y-59.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 1 posts2026-08-22: 1 posts2026-08-23: 0 posts2+100%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 7d ago
CNCNCK
$CNCKCoincheck Group N.V.
$2.11+1.44%2 posts+100%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CNCK, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Coincheck Group $290M Japanese crypto exchange -59% TTM — Q1 rev +6.4%, low-float breakout target $3.30+, speculative momentum.

Coincheck Group N.V. is a $290M Japanese cryptocurrency-exchange nano-cap. Speculative momentum with fresh Japanese-institutional-crypto positioning.

How it reads:

  • Growth is real: Q1 revenue +6.4% YoY (in JPY, $121.9B yen), Q4 was +11.5% — mid-single-digit compounding.
  • Margins are thin: -0.3% operating margin, -1.2% Q1 op margin, 1.4% FCF yield, -1.2% ROIC — barely negative.
  • Valuation is compressed: -21.1x PE, 0.08x sales (Japanese currency-adjusted), -123.4x EV/EBITDA — priced for continued cyclical crypto weakness.
  • Position is weak: 9% percentile 52w, 8.1% below 50-day, 13.8% below 200-day on 17% baseline volume — the tape is broken.
  • The specific bull tell: nearly 100x relative-volume morning making it a top low-float breakout watch, supply-demand flip over pre-market supply with target $3.30+, CNCK on top-watchlist alongside BZFD/TDIC/HTCO/QUBT/MGNX.
  • Aug 12 Coincheck Group Eyes Japan's Institutional Crypto Boom With New Infrastructure Push — the specific strategic tell.
  • Aug 7 KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forum participation — the investor-engagement tell.
  • Insider signal is silent: zero transactions in 90-day window.

The Nov 13 print is the test — a specific Japan-institutional-crypto revenue reference plus reiterated FY26 outlook extends the run; another sub-6% growth quarter plus continued -13.8% below 200-day drops to $1.75 support.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the speculative-momentum framing — the bullish anchors (nearly 100x relative-volume morning as top low-float breakout watch, simple supply-demand flip over pre-market supply with target $3.30+, CNCK on top-watchlist alongside BZFD/TDIC/HTCO/QUBT/MGNX) map to real momentum-trader signals; the honest add is the fundamentals are the actual story (Q1 revenue +6.4% is real growth) and Aug 12 'Japan's Institutional Crypto Boom' framing is the specific strategic tell.

What to watch: Nov 13 earnings — a specific Japan-institutional-crypto revenue reference plus reiterated FY26 outlook extends the run; another sub-6% growth quarter plus continued -13.8% below 200-day drops to $1.75 support.

On the calendar: 2026-11-13 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment16 posts analyzed · as of 2026-05-19

CNCK attracts speculative momentum-trader interest with a nearly 100x relative-volume morning making it a top low-float breakout watch among traders. Setup posts cite a simple supply-demand flip over pre-market supply with a target range to $3.30+, and CNCK appears repeatedly on top-watchlist alongside BZFD, TDIC, HTCO, QUBT, and MGNX. Mixed loss-disclosures from individual traders provide a small negative tone. Overall sentiment is positive on the breakout setup.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CNCK

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates Japan's Coincheck cryptocurrency exchange offering retail crypto trading and NFT marketplace services.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Asset Management - Cryptocurrency sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CNCK.

Asset Management - Cryptocurrency · Financial Services

Bitcoin ETF inflows and institutional adoption are the structural demand tailwind; crypto market cap acts as the primary AUM driver for crypto-native asset managers. Regulatory clarity — or its absence — is the key risk to capital allocation in this category.

What this means for $CNCK

Direct beneficiary — business directly tied to crypto market cap and adoption cycle; Operates Japan's Coincheck cryptocurrency exchange offering retail crypto tradin.

Industry benchmark

4-name peer basket
-10.3%YTD
-21.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-21.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-1.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-0.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-13.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
2.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$-0.04$-0.04-1.5%
Q1 2026May 12, 2026$0.05$-0.01+600.0%
Q4 2025Feb 18, 2026$0.02$0.01+100.0%
Q3 2025Nov 14, 2025$0.02$-0.01+300.0%
Next earningsFri, Nov 13·consensus EPS $-0.03

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$121.9B+6.4%2.4%-1.2%$-9.12$-462.8M
Q3 FY26$143.5B+16.5%2.7%0.2%$3.15$1.9B
Q2 FY26$133.1B+89.2%2.9%0.4%$2.71$-1.6B
Q1 FY26$84.0B+11.5%3.2%-1.0%$-10.52$665.0M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 3 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$489.3B$438.5B – $533.2B-$4.41-$4.93 – -$3.822
FY27$451.7B$412.7B – $477.7B-$17.04-$60.85 – $7.303
FY28$550.4B$483.1B – $583.3B$0.22-$1.51 – $1.303
FY29$622.7B$558.1B – $678.6B-$2.64-$2.95 – -$2.282

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.9%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-8.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-13.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 11.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.435-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 6 other (5 exempts · 1 award) in window

See when $CNCK insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13DActivist position (5%+)Jun 9SC 13D
AI summary

KDDI Corporation, a Japanese telecommunications company, filed an SC 13D on Coincheck Group N.V. on June 9, 2026, disclosing direct sole ownership of 28,536,516 ordinary shares (14.9% of outstanding), funded from working capital. Due to Monex Group's (the controlling shareholder) agreement to vote in favor of an KDDI-nominated board director, KDDI may also be deemed to share voting power over Monex's 136,247,594 shares, bringing combined attributed voting influence to ~85.9% of outstanding shares; KDDI expressly disclaims formation of a formal group with Monex. This is a governance-oriented strategic stake — KDDI is seeking a board seat at the crypto exchange operator, making this an active strategic investment rather than a passive holding.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 14SC 13D/A
AI summary

MONEX GROUP, INC. filed an amended Schedule 13D on CNCK disclosing beneficial ownership (136,247,594.00 shares) as of 2026-05-14. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 73
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for CNCK on 2026-04-07, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 73
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for CNCK on 2026-04-07, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for CNCK on 2026-03-31, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 303
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for CNCK on 2026-03-30, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 303
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for CNCK on 2026-03-30, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 273
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for CNCK on 2026-03-27, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

+ 19 other (9 6-Ks · 7 3s · 1 F-3 · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Coincheck Group Eyes Japan's Institutional Crypto Boom With New Infrastructure Pushmarketbeat.com·19d agoCoincheck Group N.V. To Participate at the KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forumbusinesswire.com·24d agoCoincheck Group N.V. To Participate at the KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forumgurufocus.com·24d agoCoincheck Group Q1 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·24d agoCoincheck Reports Financial Results for First Quarter of Year Ending March 31, 2027businesswire.com·25d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $CNCK on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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