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AYAYA

Aya Gold & Silver Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 144% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesQuiet on X (0 mentions/wk)
$AYA·$4.2B·Silver·Basic Materials
$27.97-4.5%1Y+71.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
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Price updated 2d ago
AYAYA
$AYAAya Gold & Silver Inc.
$27.97-4.51%0 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AYA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-28

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

A Moroccan silver miner with 55% operating margins and revenue up 144% — but two consecutive misses as Zgounder ramps.

Aya Gold & Silver operates the Zgounder silver mine in Morocco and is advancing the Boumadine polymetallic project, alongside a portfolio of exploration licences. The production ramp has transformed the financials: Q2 revenue of C$94.3M grew 144% YoY, with quarterly revenue climbing from C$54.3M to C$117.3M across four quarters before easing back. Margins are strong — 65.5% gross and 54.9% operating in Q2, up from 39.3% and 27.9% three quarters earlier — reflecting operating leverage as the mill reaches design throughput. Trailing figures: 18.6% ROIC, 25.3% ROE, 61.3% gross margin and low leverage at 0.18x. The valuation is full at 37.5x earnings and 12.4x sales, which prices continued ramp-up and the silver price. Two considerations temper it. The last two prints missed estimates by 36.1% and 12.1% on revenue well below expectations — C$96.8M against C$121M in August — suggesting the ramp is running behind plan. And analyst estimates show revenue peaking at C$495M in 2027 then declining to C$306M by 2029 and C$202M by 2030, with EPS following, which implies mine-life or grade assumptions that the current multiple does not obviously accommodate. Boumadine is the project that would extend that profile; a July release reported it advancing. Volume is running 2.2x normal with a beta of 1.70 — this trades as a leveraged silver play.

Differs from X sentimentNo X sentiment snapshot is available. Coverage is earnings-call transcripts plus an Alberta Investment Management position disclosure and a GuruFocus valuation piece — none engages with the two consecutive revenue misses against the ramp schedule.

What to watch: Silver prices are the dominant driver, and this trades with high beta to them. Whether Zgounder throughput reaches nameplate — two consecutive revenue misses suggest it has not. Q3 on 2026-11-12 against a C$0.30 estimate. Boumadine development milestones determine whether the post-2027 revenue decline in consensus is avoidable.

On the calendar: Q3 earnings, 2026-11-12

low-chatter

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-29

Aya Gold & Silver chatter is decisively bullish. Desjardins raised PT from C$38 to C$55 and reiterated Buy, AYA hit fresh ATHs (+8.34% intraday), and 3.2 Moz AgEq H1 production implies ~8 Moz for the year at typical H1/H2 seasonality. Contributors call AYA their top mining stock with 6 Moz projected 2027 output, and CEO commentary implies $600/share by 2029 at $200 silver. Silver-basket leadership.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AYA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. specializes in the procurement, investigation, and enhancement of mineral-rich landholdings. Its diverse portfolio encompasses key sites such as Zgounder, Boumadine, Imiter bis, Amizmiz, Azegour, Tirzzit, and Tijirit, in addition to its reported reserves and resources. Réjean Gosselin established this enterprise on December 19, 2007, and its corporate headquarters are situated in Montreal, Canada.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Silver sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AYA.

Silver · Basic Materials

No material change from last week — photovoltaic paste consumption and chip wire bonding are structural industrial demand drivers scaling with AI buildout's expansion of global fab output.

Top industry ETF

$SILGlobal X Silver Miners ETF
-8.2%YTD
+75.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
37.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
18.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
51.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
12.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
25.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
61.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 13, 2026$0.23$0.36-36.1%
Q1 2026May 14, 2026$0.33$0.38-12.1%
Q3 2025Nov 11, 2025$0.09$0.09-0.5%
Q1 2025May 13, 2025$0.05$0.01+270.4%
Next earningsThu, Nov 12·consensus EPS $0.30

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$94.3M+144.3%65.5%54.9%$0.23$37.9M
Q1 FY26$117.3M—71.4%66.2%$0.34$53.4M
Q4 FY25$75.3M—56.6%48.3%$0.12$9.0M
Q3 FY25$54.3M—39.3%27.9%$0.09$-2.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$454.8M$407.1M – $497.5M$1.27$0.95 – $1.446
FY27$495.3M$383.4M – $569.7M$1.57$1.21 – $2.034
FY28$360.1M$304.3M – $421.4M$1.15$0.97 – $1.333
FY29$306.0M$269.0M – $341.5M$0.64$0.54 – $0.741
FY30$202.1M$177.7M – $225.6M$1.92$1.62 – $2.212

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.2.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.—Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+25.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.—Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 137.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.705-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 20 other (14 6-Ks · 2 40FR12B/As · 1 SEC STAFF ACTION · 1 CERT) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

35,040 Shares in Aya Gold & Silver Inc. $AYA Purchased by Alberta Investment Management Corpdefenseworld.net·13d agoAya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA:CA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·16d agoAya Gold & Silver Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·16d agoAya Gold & Silver Inc (AYA) Stock Up 8.5% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 68/100gurufocus.com·39d agoAya Gold & Silver Advances Boumadine Projectglobenewswire.com·47d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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