TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$ASTS
ASASTS

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

$ASTS·$29B·Telecommunications Services·Communication Services
$59.10+1.8%YTD-5.4%1Y+21.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 264 posts2026-08-23: 264 posts3,475+1%
Price updated 10h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
ASASTS
$ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc.
$59.10+1.81%3.5k posts+1%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ASTS, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

The direct-to-cell satellite bet, in the ugly middle: hardware on orbit, revenue almost invisible, and dilution running faster than deployment.

AST SpaceMobile is building a constellation of large phased-array satellites (BlueBirds) that connect directly to unmodified consumer smartphones — a genuinely differentiated technology aimed at the multi-billion mobile-network-operator (MNO) market. The stock has been cut roughly in half from its highs as the market's patience with the funding side runs thin.

  • Revenue is real but tiny: Q1 revenue was $14.7M off a near-zero base, so the enormous year-over-year growth headlines mask the fact this remains a pre-revenue-scale bet — the equity cannot trade on multiples until the MNO gateway agreements start converting into recurring subscriber revenue.
  • The dilution runway matters more than the launches: a fresh $1B convertible closed July 20 on top of the earlier ATM, and cumulative shares outstanding are up roughly 2,900% since 2021 — every leg of hardware execution costs holders shares, and Deutsche Bank's $93 hold plus Clear Street's $115 target frame the range the sell side currently accepts.
  • Deployment is on track technically: BlueBirds 12-13 in orbit, BB14-16 nearing shipment, more than 60 MNO partnerships signed, and Falcon 9 launch capacity from Cape Canaveral freed up as SpaceX shifts Starlink to Vandenberg — that's a real, defensible pipeline of near-term launches.
  • The insider signal is quiet-negative: nothing but restricted-stock award grants and F-InKind tax-withholding surrenders — no open-market buying to counter the dilution message; officers accept comp, they aren't adding to it with their own cash.

The path if it works is BB14-16 launching on schedule and a first flagship MNO subscriber-revenue milestone in 2027 that convinces the market to model the constellation-completion terminal value. The risk is another 12 months of shipping-soon language plus more dilution — that's when the current 55% drawdown extends and the constellation-vs-cash race turns against holders.

Differs from X sentimentThe loyalist X take — BlueBirds 12-13 up, BB14-16 shipping, 60+ MNO partnerships, Falcon 9 capacity freed — describes the hardware progress correctly, but skips the honest concern the bears flag: 2,900% share-count expansion since 2021 and a fresh $1B convert means dilution is running faster than commercial revenue, and hardware progress alone doesn't fix that.

What to watch: BB14-16 launch dates being confirmed (not slipping again) and any first flagship MNO subscriber-revenue disclosure on the Nov 9 print — the two things that either validate the schedule or trigger the next leg down.

On the calendar: 2026-11-09 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment193 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Sentiment is split and raw. Long-term believers are hammering the buy-the-fear case — 13 satellites deployed, a $1.3B backlog, US Mobile emerging as the likely fourth US carrier, freed-up Falcon 9 Florida slots after Starlink pulled out, and a $3.7B war chest fully funding the ~45-satellite target. Frustrated holders counter with delayed BB14-16 shipping, management silence, another guidance miss, and calls for a retest into the $30s-$40s.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ASTS

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Building a LEO satellite constellation to deliver cellular broadband to standard smartphones in coverage-dead zones.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Telecommunications Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ASTS.

Telecommunications Services · Communication Services

Wireless subscriber growth is maturing; pricing discipline and convergence bundles (mobile + broadband) are the profitability levers. Network capex cycles — 5G densification — are winding down, improving free cash flow generation.

What this means for $ASTS

Neutral — network operator exposure is to subscriber economics and capex cycles, not directly to the industry macro driver.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
+33.4%YTD
+36.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-55.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-6.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-441%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-3.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
448.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-32.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-27.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 10, 2026$-0.44$-0.32-39.7%
Q1 2026May 11, 2026$-0.66$-0.26-158.8%
Q4 2025Mar 2, 2026$-0.26$-0.18-44.4%
Q3 2025Nov 10, 2025$-0.45$-0.39-15.9%
Next earningsMon, Nov 9·consensus EPS $-0.39

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$14.7M+1952.2%24.9%-1014%$-0.66$-309.7M
Q4 FY25$54.3M+2731.3%-68.1%-133%$-0.28$-330.7M
Q3 FY25$14.7M+1239.9%62.6%-541%$-0.45$-302.9M
Q2 FY25$1.2M+28.4%100%-6297%$-0.41$-353.6M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$158.9M$141.3M – $164.7M-$1.45-$2.05 – -$0.908
FY27$684.2M$607.0M – $797.6M-$0.75-$2.30 – $2.468
FY28$1.8B$1.7B – $2.0B$0.60$0.34 – $0.865
FY29$3.2B$2.7B – $3.8B$2.47$1.96 – $3.052
FY30$4.1B$3.4B – $4.8B$4.02$3.19 – $4.982

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.24%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-12.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-27.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 266.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.755-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 11Johnson Andrew MartinCFO45.8K sh$4.3MSellJun 5Huiwen YaoCTO40.0K sh$3.9MSellMay 20Johnson Andrew MartinCFO5.0K sh$451KSellMay 13Julio A. TorresDirector15.0K sh$1.1MSellApr 15Hiroshi Mikitani10% owner1.4M sh$116.4MSellApr 14Hiroshi Mikitani10% owner1.7M sh$154.5MSellMar 23Huiwen YaoCTO40.0K sh$3.6M
+ 39 other (18 inkinds · 17 awards · 3 inthemoneys · 1 other) in window

See when $ASTS insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 108-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) reported Q2 2026 financial results on 2026-08-10, reporting financial results details in attached press release. Additional items: Item 7.01. Quarterly earnings are a material disclosure; investors should review the full press release for segment details and management commentary.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 243
AI summary

Turco Christopher Edward filed an initial Form 3 as a 10%+ owner of ASTS, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of securities as of the event date. This is a standard Section 16 reporting obligation triggered by the relationship with the issuer. Routine administrative filing with no indication of open-market transactions.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 208-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) completed a $1.0 billion private offering of 1.625% Convertible Senior Notes due February 1, 2034, closed July 20, 2026, with U.S. Bank Trust as trustee and an additional $150M option granted to initial purchasers for 13 days. The notes pay 1.625% interest semi-annually beginning February 1, 2027, are general unsecured obligations, and are convertible at holders' option when the stock trades at or above 130% of the conversion price for 20 of 30 consecutive trading days. This is a transformative capital raise for ASTS's satellite broadband buildout, adding $1B+ in long-dated debt with potential equity dilution upon conversion.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 158-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) announced a proposed offering of convertible senior notes due 2034 in a Rule 144A private placement, along with planned capped call transactions to reduce potential dilution. As of June 30, 2026, the company held total cash of approximately $2,723 million. Q2 2026 financial results have not been finalized and actual results may differ from expectations. The filing was dated July 15, 2026, and accompanies a Regulation FD disclosure.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 23SC 13D/A
AI summary

Amendment No. 18 to Schedule 13D filed by Abel Avellan reporting beneficial ownership of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. representing a 6% stake (6 shares), with investment intent. This SC 13D/A filing dated 2026-06-23 updates the holder's position and disclosed intentions.

8-KShareholder voteJun 158-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. reported results of its Annual Meeting held June 12, 2026, at which 87.7% of total voting power was represented. All 10 incumbent director nominees were re-elected with strong majorities, KPMG LLP was ratified as independent auditor for FY2026, and executive compensation received non-binding advisory approval. Abel Avellan received the highest vote tally among nominees; Richard Sarnoff received the most withheld votes but still passed comfortably. A routine annual governance event with no contested proposals or material opposition.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 118-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ASTS reported First Quarter 2026 Business Update, dated May 11, 202 financial results (8-K Item 2.02). Investors should review the full earnings press release and any management guidance for forward outlook.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 5SC 13D/A
AI summary

Rakuten Mobile, Inc. filed an amended Schedule 13D on ASTS disclosing beneficial ownership (15,510,078.00 shares) as of 2026-05-05. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

+ 11 other (2 10-Qs · 2 proxys · 2 SC 13D/As · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

AST SpaceMobile Is Down 54%—Can FCC Progress and BlueBirds Reverse the Slide?marketbeat.com·19h agoWhy Is AST SpaceMobile Stock Down This Week?fool.com·4d agoAST SpaceMobile vs. Firefly Aerospace: Which Outer Space Upstart Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·5d agoCan ASTS Turn Its BlueBird Launch Push Into Meaningful 2026 Revenues?zacks.com·6d agoIs ASTS Worth Buying as Growth Collides With a Premium Valuation?zacks.com·6d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space Economy

More in Telecommunications Services

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$T$VZ$AD$TMUS$ECHO$CMCSA$CHTR$GSAT
Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport