TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$ASTS
ASASTS

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normMoving on elevated volumeStrong bullish X conversation
$ASTS·$30B·Telecommunications Services·Communication Services
$57.80+5.1%YTD-22.2%1Y+0.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 1,378 posts2026-07-11: 333 posts2026-07-12: 486 posts2026-07-13: 2,180 posts2026-07-14: 3,856 posts2026-07-15: 7,312 posts2026-07-16: 7,931 posts23,682+66%
Price updated 4h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
ASASTS
$ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc.
$57.80+5.07%24k posts+66%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ASTS, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Direct-to-phone satellite story just added $1B of convertible dilution supply into an already-broken chart.

AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite network that beams cell service directly to standard smartphones — no ground gateway, no special antenna. It's a lottery ticket on unbelievably ambitious space engineering, and today the company announced $1 billion of new convertible notes to fund the next satellite build.

  • The $1B convertible note offering announced today is ~3.5% of the market cap in future potential dilution supply, and it lands on top of $310M of cash burn last quarter alone — this isn't a one-time raise, it's the shape of the business until commercial launch.
  • Revenue was $14.7M last quarter against a $30B market cap — the valuation is 100% forward-looking; even the 2027 analyst revenue estimate of $741M leaves the stock at 40x forward sales two years out.
  • Analyst 2028 revenue of $1.9B and 2029 of $3.2B assumes MNO partnerships and government contracts scale hard — they might, but every quarter of delay is another convert raise diluting the equity story further.
  • CEO Abel Avellan just filed a 13D/A confirming a 6% stake with investment intent — insider commitment is real, but a founder holding 6% while raising $1B in converts is the opposite of a promotional exit signal.
  • 52-week position is 31st percentile before today's news, position vs 50-day MA -23% — the tape was already telling you the story wasn't paying, and the fresh supply doesn't help.

August 10 earnings is where you find out whether cash burn is stabilizing; the $1B raise buys about a year of runway at current burn, so time isn't the problem — it's the dilution that comes with it. What restarts the tape is a big MNO pulling in a commercial-launch date. A drift below the 52-week low is where the dilution narrative wins outright.

Differs from X sentimentX chatter is a patient-bull read — MNO partnerships, government contracts, satellites unfolding — but was posted before today's $1B convertible note announcement. The fresh dilution supply changes the near-term setup; the long-term story is intact, the short-term supply/demand isn't.

What to watch: Aug 10 Q2 earnings — need cash-burn slowing and a definitive MNO commercial-launch date. Another quarter of $300M+ burn plus more capital raises confirms the breakdown; a launch-date pull-in is the one thing that resets the tape.

On the calendar: 2026-08-10 — Q2 earnings

sentiment pre dates catalyst

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment40 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

AST SpaceMobile is a painful high-conviction growth name mid-drawdown. The stock has fallen from about $133 to $57 in 48 days, and the near-term trigger was the announcement of a $1B convertible note priced at a 7.5-year, 1.625% coupon with 20% conversion premium and capped calls. Bulls frame the raise as an institutional vote of confidence, point to a confirmed J-LEO award with Rakuten, a successful BB10 array unfold in orbit, and a planned 400,000+ square-foot Midland manufacturing facility with 1,100 jobs. Bears and shaken longs criticize management for diluting at $60 rather than $120 and openly question whether the low is in. The conversation is emotional, not just analytical.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ASTS

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Building a LEO satellite constellation to deliver cellular broadband to standard smartphones in coverage-dead zones.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Telecommunications Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ASTS.

Telecommunications Services · Communication Services

No material change from last week — IRDM's only truly global LEO constellation and GSAT's Apple SOS partnership represent a new service layer that neither cable nor wireless incumbents can match.

What this means for $ASTS

Direct beneficiary — Building a LEO satellite constellation to deliver cellular broadband to standard smartphones in coverage-dead zones; the company is structurally positioned to capture the LEO satellite global coverage and Apple SOS emergency positioning.

Industry benchmark

19-name peer basket
+16.7%YTD
+29.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-55.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-6.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-441%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-3.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
448.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-32.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-27.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 11, 2026$-0.66$-0.26-158.8%
Q4 2025Mar 2, 2026$-0.26$-0.18-44.4%
Q3 2025Nov 10, 2025$-0.45$-0.39-15.9%
Q2 2025Aug 11, 2025$-0.41$-0.19-113.9%
Next earningsMon, Aug 10·consensus EPS $-0.25

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$14.7M+1952.2%24.9%-1014%$-0.66$-309.7M
Q4 FY25$54.3M+2731.3%-68.1%-133%$-0.28$-330.7M
Q3 FY25$14.7M+1239.9%62.6%-541%$-0.45$-302.9M
Q2 FY25$1.2M+28.4%100%-6297%$-0.41$-353.6M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$168.3M$156.7M – $173.4M-$1.55-$2.06 – -$0.947
FY27$741.0M$647.2M – $814.9M-$0.72-$2.43 – $2.607
FY28$1.9B$1.9B – $1.9B$1.09$0.62 – $1.555
FY29$3.2B$2.5B – $3.8B$3.21$2.38 – $4.042
FY30$4.1B$3.3B – $4.9B$4.00$2.97 – $5.022

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.2.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.19%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-35.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-33.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 266.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today19.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.685-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 11Johnson Andrew MartinCFO45.8K sh$4.3MSellJun 5Huiwen YaoCTO40.0K sh$3.9MSellMay 20Johnson Andrew MartinCFO5.0K sh$451KSellMay 13Julio A. TorresDirector15.0K sh$1.1MSellApr 15Hiroshi Mikitani10% owner1.4M sh$116.4MSellApr 14Hiroshi Mikitani10% owner1.7M sh$154.5MSellMar 23Huiwen YaoCTO40.0K sh$3.6M
+ 29 other (15 inkinds · 11 awards · 2 inthemoneys · 1 other) in window

See when $ASTS insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 158-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) announced a proposed offering of convertible senior notes due 2034 in a Rule 144A private placement, along with planned capped call transactions to reduce potential dilution. As of June 30, 2026, the company held total cash of approximately $2,723 million. Q2 2026 financial results have not been finalized and actual results may differ from expectations. The filing was dated July 15, 2026, and accompanies a Regulation FD disclosure.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 23SC 13D/A
AI summary

Amendment No. 18 to Schedule 13D filed by Abel Avellan reporting beneficial ownership of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. representing a 6% stake (6 shares), with investment intent. This SC 13D/A filing dated 2026-06-23 updates the holder's position and disclosed intentions.

8-KShareholder voteJun 158-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. reported results of its Annual Meeting held June 12, 2026, at which 87.7% of total voting power was represented. All 10 incumbent director nominees were re-elected with strong majorities, KPMG LLP was ratified as independent auditor for FY2026, and executive compensation received non-binding advisory approval. Abel Avellan received the highest vote tally among nominees; Richard Sarnoff received the most withheld votes but still passed comfortably. A routine annual governance event with no contested proposals or material opposition.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 118-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ASTS reported First Quarter 2026 Business Update, dated May 11, 202 financial results (8-K Item 2.02). Investors should review the full earnings press release and any management guidance for forward outlook.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 5SC 13D/A
AI summary

Rakuten Mobile, Inc. filed an amended Schedule 13D on ASTS disclosing beneficial ownership (15,510,078.00 shares) as of 2026-05-05. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentApr 24SC 13D/A
AI summary

Rakuten Mobile, Inc. filed an amended Schedule 13D on ASTS disclosing beneficial ownership (21,020,155.00 shares) as of 2026-04-24. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 208-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

ASTS filed an 8-K Item 7.01 (Reg FD) disclosure dated 2026-04-20. Reg FD disclosures make material information simultaneously available to all investors; content may include guidance updates, strategic plans, or preliminary results.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentApr 16SC 13D/A
AI summary

Rakuten Mobile, Inc. filed an amended Schedule 13D on ASTS disclosing beneficial ownership (26,080,155.00 shares) as of 2026-04-16. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

+ 20 other (4 8-Ks · 4 424B5s · 2 proxys · 2 13Gs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Why AST SpaceMobile Stock Raced Higher Todayfool.com·9h agoArcher Aviation vs. AST SpaceMobile: Which Aerospace Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·10h agoSpaceX vs. AST SpaceMobile: Which Space Stock Will get Your Portfolio Into Orbit in 2026?fool.com·11h agoAST SpaceMobile Stock Sinks as SpaceX Fallout Rattles Space Sectormarketbeat.com·13h agoAST SpaceMobile: Why I Bought The Dipseekingalpha.com·14h ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space Economy

More in Telecommunications Services

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$T$VZ$CMCSA$SATS$CHTR$TMUS$LUMN$ECHO
Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport