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ASASTH

Astrana Health, Inc.

$ASTH·$1.8B·Medical - Care Facilities·Healthcare
$40.81+8.0%1Y+38.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-08: 0 posts2026-08-09: 1 posts2026-08-10: 1 posts2026-08-11: 0 posts2026-08-12: 0 posts2026-08-13: 0 posts2026-08-14: 1 posts30%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 2h ago
ASASTH
$ASTHAstrana Health, Inc.
$40.81+7.99%3 posts0%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ASTH, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-13

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Astrana Health — physician-network value-based-care operator (formerly Apollo Medical) growing revenue nearly 50% and beating consensus each quarter.

Astrana Health (formerly Apollo Medical Holdings before its 2024 rebrand) is a physician-centric healthcare management company running a value-based-care model across California and expanding nationally. It's a genuine growth story in the Medicare Advantage physician-services space.

  • Q2 revenue grew 48.5% year over year to $972.5M with Q2 EPS at $0.40 beating consensus $0.34 by 19% — the fourth consecutive top-line acceleration and a clean EPS beat, showing the value-based-care model is scaling economically as physician networks integrate.
  • Analyst FY27 EPS at $1.88 (from FY26 $1.27) implies operating-leverage kicking in as the acquired-physician-group integrations complete — that's the classic value-based-care scale story, with the numbers now landing.
  • The stock has cooled tactically: at 58% of 52-week range and -9% below the 50-day, though still +23% above the 200-day — the beat has been absorbed without a directional break, meaning the market wants confirmation of durability before extending the move.
  • Trades at 41x TTM earnings but only 0.44x sales — the low EV/Revenue reflects that the physician-services value-based-care model is dilutive at the gross-margin line (Medicare capitation, not fee-for-service), and the multiple is essentially a bet on the operating leverage arriving.

What restarts the accelerating call: Nov 5 Q3 earnings sustaining 40%+ revenue growth plus commentary that new value-based-care contracts are ramping (particularly in newer markets like Nevada and Texas) — that defends the multiple and takes the stock through prior highs. What confirms cooling breaks down: any Medicare Advantage rate-setting shock from CMS or a big physician-group defection from the network.

What to watch: Nov 5 Q3 earnings — revenue growth (needs to stay at 40%+) and new value-based-care contract commentary. Also monitor CMS Medicare Advantage rate-setting updates and any physician-group M&A activity in Astrana's markets. The 'full-risk' percentage (currently 81%) is the leading metric for operating leverage.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Physician-led healthcare management company operating value-based care networks and medical groups across California and other US markets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Medical - Care Facilities sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ASTH.

Medical - Care Facilities · Healthcare

No material change from last week — hospital systems continue to rely on travel nursing and locum physician staffing to fill permanent workforce gaps that training pipelines cannot replenish at..

Top industry ETF

$IHFiShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF
+17.6%YTD
+29.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
41.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
4.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
2.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
5.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
6.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$0.40$0.34+19.1%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.30$0.29+3.4%
Q4 2025Mar 2, 2026$0.54$0.15+260.0%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.01$0.47-97.9%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $0.36

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$972.5M+48.5%0.0%3.5%$0.40$28.9M
Q1 FY26$965.1M+55.6%9.4%3.0%$0.30$64.1M
Q4 FY25$950.5M+42.9%8.3%1.9%$0.12$-6.0M
Q3 FY25$956.0M+99.7%8.5%2.0%$0.01$7.4M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.0B$3.9B – $4.1B$1.27$1.20 – $1.337
FY27$4.4B$4.3B – $4.4B$1.88$1.62 – $2.127
FY28$4.7B$4.7B – $4.7B$2.74$2.53 – $2.952
FY29$5.1B$5.0B – $5.2B$3.08$3.00 – $3.171
FY30$5.5B$5.4B – $5.6B$3.58$3.49 – $3.691

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.58%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-8.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+22.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 39.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.905-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 20 other (10 awards · 9 inkinds · 1 return) in window

See when $ASTH insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 113
AI summary

Acuitas Therapeutics (ASTH) filed a Form 3 disclosing that the reporting officer holds 3,972 restricted shares of common stock, subject to vesting tied to continuous employment. Specific vesting schedule details are in the footnotes of the full form.

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 68-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ASTH filed an 8-K (Item 2.02) reporting its financial results, filed 2026-08-06. The actual financial figures are in the attached press release (Exhibit 99.1), not reproduced in the body excerpt. This is a material disclosure; investors should review the press release for beat/miss details and guidance.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 138-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ASTH filed an 8-K (Item 7.01) for a Regulation FD disclosure. A presentation or investor communication is being furnished as an exhibit. Reg FD disclosures are furnished rather than filed and are not typically market-moving on their own, but may contain forward-looking statements or strategy updates.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 18-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

ASTH filed an 8-K (Item 5.02) reporting a director or officer change. not to u is involved in the change. The role noted: Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory . This is primarily an administrative disclosure; materiality depends on the seniority of the role and whether it reflects a strategic shift.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 108-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

ASTH filed an 8-K (Item 5.02) reporting a director or officer change. not to u is involved in the change. The role noted: Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory . This is primarily an administrative disclosure; materiality depends on the seniority of the role and whether it reflects a strategic shift.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 128-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 128-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 78-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 15 other (2 10-Qs · 2 13Gs · 2 proxys · 2 S-3ASRs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Astrana Health: 81% Full-Risk And Profitableseekingalpha.com·3d agoAstrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·8d agoAstrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) Q2 Earnings Top Estimateszacks.com·8d agoAstrana Health Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·8d agoAstrana Health, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsprnewswire.com·8d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

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