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ADADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

$ADM·$39B·Agricultural Farm Products·Consumer Defensive
$83.00+0.9%YTD+44.5%1Y+53.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 113 posts2026-07-10: 123 posts2026-07-11: 51 posts2026-07-12: 90 posts2026-07-13: 170 posts2026-07-14: 106 posts2026-07-15: 131 posts793+12%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
ADADM
$ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company
$83.00+0.85%793 posts+12%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ADM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-15

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Agriculture giant near 52w highs on E15/ethanol tailwind — Aug 4 print has to justify the 43% YTD run.

Archer-Daniels-Midland is one of the world's largest agricultural processors — corn, soybeans, wheat — plus a large trading and nutrition ingredients business. It's had a rare re-rating year on ethanol policy and fertilizer scarcity themes.

Where the setup lands:

  • Growth is barely positive: Q1 revenue rose 1.6% year-over-year to $20.5B with a very thin 2% operating margin — this is a bulk commodity processor where the margin narrative matters more than the topline, and last three EPS surprises averaged +9%.
  • The valuation reflects the recent re-rating: 36x trailing PE for a low-single-digit grower is elevated, but the 12% FCF yield and the E15 ethanol-policy tailwind justify some of the multiple expansion — the market is pricing in continued policy-favorable outcomes.
  • The insider signal is neutral: only routine board awards on July 2, no material insider open-market buys or sells to lean on — meaning execution has to carry the tape rather than any insider conviction call.

Aug 4 earnings decides whether the run extends: a beat driven by nutrition-segment margin expansion combined with any E15 policy commentary and a firm FY guide would push shares toward $90, while a soft ag-services quarter or any ethanol-margin miss would let the current 91%-of-52w-range setup risk a pullback toward $75.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X read is fair and nuanced — ADM as a fertilizer-tailwind leader on one side, E15 ethanol demand concerns on the other. Both anchors are real. The verdict lands with the constructive tape while naming the E15/ethanol risk as the specific issue to watch.

What to watch: Aug 4 earnings: ag-services segment margins, nutrition growth, E15 policy commentary, and FY26 guide. A soft ag-services quarter or ethanol margin miss triggers a pullback to $75.

On the calendar: 2026-08-04 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-17 · top-engagement diverged

Archer Daniels Midland is described as 'one of two stocks that has acted the best among agribusiness plays' — if fertilizer supply issues materialize, ADM is the leader. The chart shows some buy volume stepping in including new holders. The structural bear note: 'First time I've seen E15. It's over, pack it in' — a sober commentary on ethanol/E15 demand outlook. ADM is on dividend-reinvestment portfolios. Net tone is mixed: leadership in the cyclical setup but with structural concerns.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ADM

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Processes corn, oilseeds, and wheat into food ingredients, biofuels, and animal feed; operates grain elevators and port terminals globally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Agricultural Farm Products sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ADM.

Agricultural Farm Products · Consumer Defensive

No material change from last week — ADM's stock dropped despite a broadly positive market, reflecting concerns about grain and oilseed crush margin sustainability as global supply uncertainty..

What this means for $ADM

Direct beneficiary — Processes corn, oilseeds, and wheat into food ingredients, biofuels, and animal feed; operates grain elevators and port terminals globally; primary revenue lines track directly to the commodity demand dynamics and processing margin compression.

Top industry ETF

$XLPConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
+10.4%YTD
+6.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
36.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
2.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
1.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
12.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
4.8%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
5.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.71$0.64+10.8%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$0.87$0.80+9.2%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.92$0.85+8.4%
Q2 2025Aug 5, 2025$0.93$0.82+13.8%
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $1.36

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$20.5B+1.6%6.0%2.0%$0.62$-44.0M
Q4 FY25$18.6B-13.7%6.5%1.7%$0.94$-669.0M
Q3 FY25$20.4B+2.2%6.2%1.9%$0.22$1.5B
Q2 FY25$21.2B-4.8%4.7%0.5%$0.45$4.0B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$85.8B$81.2B – $90.9B$4.64$4.40 – $5.056
FY27$89.7B$84.2B – $100.2B$5.51$5.08 – $5.936
FY28$94.6B$93.2B – $95.9B$5.27$5.18 – $5.364
FY29$84.7B$79.8B – $98.0B$4.92$4.55 – $5.923
FY30$85.8B$80.8B – $99.2B$4.64$4.29 – $5.593

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.91%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+4.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+20.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 477.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.615-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMar 13Ian R PinnerPresident34.1K sh$2.4MSellMar 13Christopher M CuddyPresident35.0K sh$2.6MSellMar 10Gregory A MorrisPresident50.0K sh$3.4MSellFeb 17Jennifer L WeberPresident25.0K sh$1.7M
+ 70 other (55 awards · 15 inkinds) in window

See when $ADM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 128-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) held its May 7, 2026 Annual Meeting at which stockholders approved an amendment to the 2020 Incentive Compensation Plan increasing shares available by 9,000,000, and elected all board nominees. CEO J.R. Luciano received notably higher dissent (~15.9M against votes) compared to most peers, as did P.J. Moore (~16.3M against). The 9M additional shares under the 2020 IC Plan are incorporated by reference to the proxy statement. This is a routine governance filing; the elevated opposition to certain directors, particularly Luciano, may reflect residual shareholder concerns from prior regulatory and accounting issues.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
8-KOfficer or director changeMar 108-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 13 other (4 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Archer Daniels Jumps 52% in a Year: Key Factors Behind the Surgezacks.com·2d agoADM to Release Second Quarter Financial Results on August 4, 2026businesswire.com·3d agoArcher Daniels Midland (ADM) Advances While Market Declines: Some Information for Investorszacks.com·3d agoWhy ADM (ADM) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Againzacks.com·4d agoThese 2 Consumer Staples Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radarzacks.com·4d ago

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