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Alcoa Corporation

$AA·$11B·Aluminum·Basic Materials
$40.42+0.8%YTD-25.3%1Y+10.9%
Price updated 14h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
AAAA
$AAAlcoa Corporation
$40.42+0.85%345 posts2.2×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $AA on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

345X posts · last 7 days
Sep 28Oct 11
Chatter Meter
2.2×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $AA's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's running louder than usual, louder than 97% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data10 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-16

Chatter around $AA is unabashedly bullish, though it centers on the ArbitrageApe DeFi-on-Robinhood token that shares the ticker rather than the equity. Holders are trumpeting hourly USDG payouts, LP fund equity, and roughly $150k distributed in the first week, framing the arbitrage algo as a working product still being tuned.

Read what X is saying about $AA

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $AA — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

The aluminum major is in a classic cyclical trough — the Oct 15 print is the catalyst, and the setup is cheap enough to matter.

Alcoa is the North American aluminum producer whose P&L swings with LME aluminum pricing, alumina market conditions, and energy costs. The 2026 drawdown reflects soft aluminum demand, uneven alumina prices, and the ongoing drag from legacy capacity actions.

  • The P&L is thin but still earning: last quarter revenue was down 2.5% YoY to $3.19B at an 18% operating margin with EPS of $1.61 — but the trailing-two prints missed Street estimates by 6% and 8%, which is the pattern of a cyclical that keeps surprising mildly to the downside.
  • The chart agrees that the market is waiting on the cycle: 21% of 52-week range, 27% below the 200-day, and -22% YTD — Alcoa typically trades in these zones until either aluminum prices rip or management announces a specific cost-reduction action.

Oct 15 earnings is the next clear datapoint. A clean operating-margin print with any Chinese alumina supply commentary is the trigger for a bounce off these levels; another sub-estimate print at a 20% operating margin is where the stalled trajectory extends into breaking-down.

What to watch: Oct 15 Q3 earnings — LME-realized aluminum price, alumina segment margin, cash cost per tonne, and any Chinese supply commentary. A clean operating-margin beat is the trigger; another sub-estimate print extends the stall.

On the calendar: 2026-10-15 — Q3 earnings

event ahead 30dcommodity cycle

Read the AI verdict on $AA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Mines and refines bauxite into alumina and aluminum; upstream metals producer with exposure to construction, packaging, and EV battery demand.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aluminum sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AA.

Aluminum · Basic Materials

No material change from last week — Alcoa's planned acquisition of South32's bauxite-alumina-aluminum assets positions it as a vertically integrated global leader.

What this means for $AA

Neutral — Mines and refines bauxite into alumina and aluminum; upstream metals producer with exposure to construction, packaging, and EV battery demand.

Top industry ETF

$XMESPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF
+4.1%YTD
-6.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
18.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
6.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
16.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
12.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q3 2026Oct 15, 2026$1.82$1.51+20.5%
Q2 2026Jul 16, 2026$2.12$2.25-5.8%
Q1 2026Apr 16, 2026$1.40$1.53-8.5%
Q4 2025Jan 22, 2026$1.26$0.93+36.1%
Next earningsThu, Jan 28·consensus EPS $1.53

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.2B-2.5%21.3%17.9%$1.61$-298.0M
Q4 FY25$3.4B-13.3%17.3%3.0%$0.87$162.0M
Q3 FY25$3.0B+5.8%4.7%1.7%$0.90$66.0M
Q2 FY25$3.0B+6.6%7.1%3.9%$0.63$357.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$14.8B$14.2B – $15.3B$6.54$6.34 – $6.799
FY27$15.2B$13.9B – $16.5B$6.07$4.27 – $9.4610
FY28$14.5B$12.0B – $16.8B$6.06$4.01 – $7.0711
FY29$14.0B$12.7B – $15.6B$5.72$5.02 – $6.555
FY30$13.4B$12.1B – $14.9B$6.12$5.37 – $7.015

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.2.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.13%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-12.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-29.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 262.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.745-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 31Renato BacchiEVP & Chief Commercial Officer700 sh$36KSellAug 27Tammi A JonesEVP & CHRO15.6K sh$791KSellAug 17Andrew HastingsEVP & Gen. Counsel6.0K sh$305KSellJul 22Matthew T ReedEVP, Chief Operations Officer4.6K sh$215K
+ 12 other (11 awards · 1 inkind) in window

See when $AA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementSep 238-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Alcoa Corporation completed a dual-tranche senior note offering on September 23, 2026 via two wholly-owned subsidiaries — Alumina Pty Ltd issued $1.5B of 6.625% senior notes due 2034, and Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V. issued $1.1B of 6.875% senior notes due 2036. Both tranches are guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by Alcoa and its relevant subsidiaries, with restrictive covenants on liens, sale-leasebacks, and mergers. This $2.6B combined offering materially expands Alcoa's long-term debt and signals significant capital-raising activity, likely for refinancing or strategic investment.

8-KPress release / Reg FDSep 98-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Alcoa Corporation filed an 8-K on September 9, 2026, as a Rule 425 written communication related to a capital markets and acquisition transaction. The company announced a $2.6 billion senior notes offering through subsidiaries Alumina Pty Ltd and Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., with proceeds earmarked to fund the acquisition of South32's bauxite operations. Press release materials are furnished under Items 7.01 (Reg FD) and 8.01 (Other Events).

8-KMaterial agreementJul 28-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Alcoa Corporation (AA) entered into an Umbrella Implementation Deed on June 30, 2026 to acquire South32 Limited's interests in bauxite mine, alumina refinery, and aluminum smelter operations. The filing simultaneously satisfies Rule 425 written communication requirements for the proposed transaction. Financial terms and closing timeline are not disclosed in the excerpt. This is a transformative upstream deal extending Alcoa's control across the aluminum supply chain from ore to smelted metal.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 18-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Alcoa Corporation (AA) disclosed via Reg FD (Item 7.01) on June 30, 2026, that it entered into an Umbrella Implementation Deed to acquire South32 Limited's interests in bauxite mining, alumina refinery, and aluminum smelter operations. An investor presentation (Exhibit 99.2) with transaction details was furnished alongside a Rule 425 written communication press release. Financial terms of the consideration were not specified in the available excerpt. This is a potentially transformative upstream acquisition that would meaningfully expand Alcoa's integrated aluminum supply chain.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 123
AI summary

Brian Galovich, newly appointed director of Alcoa Corp (AA), filed an initial Form 3 disclosing beneficial ownership as of May 6, 2026. Table I indicates no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine Section 16(a) initial ownership disclosure for a new Alcoa director; non-material.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 118-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

At Alcoa Corporation's (AA) May 6, 2026 Annual Meeting, stockholders approved the Amended and Restated Stock and Incentive Compensation Plan, increasing authorized shares from 30,000,000 to 38,000,000 and extending the plan term to May 6, 2036. Key amendments include a new cash incentive section, minimum one-year vesting requirements, and elimination of obsolete Section 162(m) provisions. The 8M additional share authorization represents a ~27% expansion. This is a routine annual meeting governance action; the plan refresh is mildly dilutive but standard for maintaining long-term incentive capacity.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 48-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Alcoa Corporation (AA) and its subsidiary Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V. entered into Amendment No. 3 to their Revolving Credit Agreement on May 4, 2026, extending the revolving facility maturity to June 27, 2028 and removing the SOFR credit spread adjustment, sustainability rate adjustments, and sustainability commitment fee adjustments. Participating lenders received a 0.05% consent fee on their commitment amounts; JPMorgan Chase serves as administrative agent. The original revolving agreement dates to September 2016 and has been amended and restated multiple times. This is a routine liquidity management action extending near-term maturity and simplifying the facility's rate structure.

+ 29 other (14 425s · 3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 SDs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Alcoa Corporation (AA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·15h agoWhat Alcoa (AA) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Callmarketbeat.com·17h agoCompared to Estimates, Alcoa (AA) Q3 Earnings: A Look at Key Metricszacks.com·17h agoAlcoa CEO William Oplinger: Growth in data centers is really positive for aluminumyoutube.com·17h agoAlcoa Earnings Were a Relief, and the Stock Looks Cheapbarrons.com·19h ago
Voices on X · top 1 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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