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AAAA

Alcoa Corporation

$AA·$13B·Aluminum·Basic Materials
$49.95-0.7%YTD-13.5%1Y+61.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 42 posts2026-08-22: 53 posts2026-08-23: 63 posts2026-08-24: 28 posts231+56%
Price updated 2h ago·X counts updated 7d ago
AAAA
$AAAlcoa Corporation
$49.95-0.74%231 posts+56%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

The aluminum major has quietly added a gallium franchise — the tape is loading for the industrial-metals move.

Alcoa is a global aluminum and alumina major that has been trading like a lagged play on industrial-metals demand. The stock is -13% YTD but +61% TTM at $50, and the recent break-ground on the Australia gallium project adds a whole new critical-minerals angle.

  • Revenue and EPS are firming: quarterly revenue ran $3.02B / $3.00B / $3.45B / $3.19B, gross margin at 13%, quarterly EPS at $0.63 / $0.90 / $0.87 / $1.61 — analysts model $14.9B and $6.55 EPS for the full year, so at $50 the stock is at roughly 8x forward — cheap for a major benefiting from strong LME pricing.
  • The Gallium project opens a new door: Australia, Japan, US, and Alcoa broke ground on the Gallium project in Western Australia, which turns AA from a pure aluminum play into a critical-minerals name at a moment when the US is building out domestic supply for semiconductors and defense — that's a mix-shift the sell-side is starting to price.
  • The tape setup is coiled: a bull-flag setup on the daily with a golden cross incoming, upside targets in the $53-57 zone, $51 current with 21DMA (~$49) as the key hold — that's the mechanics that produce a real breakout when the industrial-metals basket runs, and the BlackRock new-stake filing supports it.

An Oct 21 print that shows realized aluminum pricing holding and specific Gallium project timeline milestones extends the coil into a real breakout; a LME aluminum roll-over, an operational incident, or a currency shock (AUD strength squeezing margins) is what invalidates the setup.

Agrees with X sentimentX's bullish setup framing lines up with the tape — the bull-flag, the golden-cross-incoming, and the industrial-metals basket grouping are all fair reads; the caveat is that this is a technical setup that only pays if the metals cycle actually breaks.

What to watch: The Oct 21 Q3 print — realized aluminum/alumina pricing, gross margin, and any Gallium project milestone commentary. A LME aluminum roll-over or an AUD strength move is what caps the tape.

On the calendar: 2026-10-21 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Alcoa chart posters are constructively watching a golden-cross setup at a demand zone, with $51 as the current pin and upside targets stacked at $53-$55-$57 provided the 21DMA around $49 holds. A gap-fill risk to roughly $45 is acknowledged but framed as a secondary scenario. Long-term industrial-metals bulls bundle AA with SLV, FCX and CRML as their preferred basket for a broader materials up-cycle.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Mines and refines bauxite into alumina and aluminum; upstream metals producer with exposure to construction, packaging, and EV battery demand.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aluminum sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AA.

Aluminum · Basic Materials

Aluminum pricing is driven by energy cost (smelting is electricity-intensive) and China production policy; tariff dynamics add a North American premium. EV lightweighting is the structural demand tailwind — content per vehicle is rising.

What this means for $AA

Direct beneficiary — upstream production economics move directly with oil price; Alcoa Corporation stands as a global industrial leader, primarily focused on the.

Top industry ETF

$XMESPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF
+2.5%YTD
+44.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
18.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
6.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
16.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
12.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 16, 2026$2.12$2.25-5.8%
Q1 2026Apr 16, 2026$1.40$1.53-8.5%
Q4 2025Jan 22, 2026$1.26$0.93+36.1%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$-0.02$-0.14+85.8%
Next earningsWed, Oct 21·consensus EPS $1.56

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.2B-2.5%21.3%17.9%$1.61$-298.0M
Q4 FY25$3.4B-13.3%17.3%3.0%$0.87$162.0M
Q3 FY25$3.0B+5.8%4.7%1.7%$0.90$66.0M
Q2 FY25$3.0B+6.6%7.1%3.9%$0.63$357.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$14.9B$14.6B – $15.2B$6.55$6.13 – $6.999
FY27$15.2B$14.2B – $16.1B$6.20$4.19 – $9.799
FY28$14.3B$12.0B – $15.7B$6.45$4.98 – $8.419
FY29$14.3B$13.1B – $15.5B$8.15$7.26 – $9.014
FY30$13.7B$12.5B – $14.8B$0.00$0.00 – $0.004

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.36%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+0.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-13.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 262.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.625-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 27Tammi A JonesEVP & CHRO15.6K sh$791KSellAug 17Andrew HastingsEVP & Gen. Counsel6.0K sh$305KSellJul 22Matthew T ReedEVP, Chief Operations Officer4.6K sh$215K
+ 11 other (11 awards) in window

See when $AA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJul 28-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Alcoa Corporation (AA) entered into an Umbrella Implementation Deed on June 30, 2026 to acquire South32 Limited's interests in bauxite mine, alumina refinery, and aluminum smelter operations. The filing simultaneously satisfies Rule 425 written communication requirements for the proposed transaction. Financial terms and closing timeline are not disclosed in the excerpt. This is a transformative upstream deal extending Alcoa's control across the aluminum supply chain from ore to smelted metal.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 18-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Alcoa Corporation (AA) disclosed via Reg FD (Item 7.01) on June 30, 2026, that it entered into an Umbrella Implementation Deed to acquire South32 Limited's interests in bauxite mining, alumina refinery, and aluminum smelter operations. An investor presentation (Exhibit 99.2) with transaction details was furnished alongside a Rule 425 written communication press release. Financial terms of the consideration were not specified in the available excerpt. This is a potentially transformative upstream acquisition that would meaningfully expand Alcoa's integrated aluminum supply chain.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 123
AI summary

Brian Galovich, newly appointed director of Alcoa Corp (AA), filed an initial Form 3 disclosing beneficial ownership as of May 6, 2026. Table I indicates no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine Section 16(a) initial ownership disclosure for a new Alcoa director; non-material.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 118-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

At Alcoa Corporation's (AA) May 6, 2026 Annual Meeting, stockholders approved the Amended and Restated Stock and Incentive Compensation Plan, increasing authorized shares from 30,000,000 to 38,000,000 and extending the plan term to May 6, 2036. Key amendments include a new cash incentive section, minimum one-year vesting requirements, and elimination of obsolete Section 162(m) provisions. The 8M additional share authorization represents a ~27% expansion. This is a routine annual meeting governance action; the plan refresh is mildly dilutive but standard for maintaining long-term incentive capacity.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 48-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Alcoa Corporation (AA) and its subsidiary Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V. entered into Amendment No. 3 to their Revolving Credit Agreement on May 4, 2026, extending the revolving facility maturity to June 27, 2028 and removing the SOFR credit spread adjustment, sustainability rate adjustments, and sustainability commitment fee adjustments. Participating lenders received a 0.05% consent fee on their commitment amounts; JPMorgan Chase serves as administrative agent. The original revolving agreement dates to September 2016 and has been amended and restated multiple times. This is a routine liquidity management action extending near-term maturity and simplifying the facility's rate structure.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 153
AI summary

Emily M. Olson, EVP & Chief External Affairs Officer of Alcoa Corp (AA), filed an initial Form 3 as of April 6, 2026. Table I/II data is cut off before share counts are shown. Routine Section 16(a) initial ownership disclosure for a newly reportable officer; non-material.

+ 26 other (8 425s · 5 proxys · 4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Alcoa to Participate in Jefferies Global Industrials Conference 2026businesswire.com·5d agoAlcoa's Gallium Project Opens a New Door Beyond Aluminummarketbeat.com·5d agoAlcoa Stock Price Prediction: Middle East Energy Outlook Pushes AA to $68247wallst.com·6d agoAustralia, Japan, the United States and Alcoa Break Ground on Gallium Project in Western Australiabusinesswire.com·8d agoBlackRock Inc. Buys New Stake in Alcoa $AAdefenseworld.net·11d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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