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Alcoa Corporation

$AA·$13B·Aluminum·Basic Materials
$48.59-1.0%YTD-10.2%1Y+70.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 161 posts2026-07-10: 193 posts2026-07-11: 81 posts2026-07-12: 156 posts2026-07-13: 244 posts2026-07-14: 95 posts2026-07-15: 102 posts1,044+37%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 3h ago
AAAA
$AAAlcoa Corporation
$48.59-0.96%1.0k posts+37%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-15

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Aluminum major with a Trump-era gallium/critical-metals tailwind — July 16 print lands with the South32 deal fresh on the tape.

Alcoa is a global aluminum, bauxite and alumina producer, and now — with fresh US/Japan/Australia government backing — a domestic gallium producer at scale. The strategic-materials angle has been the equity's second wind.

What the setup actually looks like:

  • Revenue is stabilizing after a rough patch: Q1 revenue was down only 2.5% year-over-year at $3.2B (vs -13% in Q4) as alumina pricing bottomed and Alcoa's cost discipline started to show — operating margin at 18% is the highest in years.
  • The strategic-metals story is now specific: Reuters and WSJ both confirmed the gallium plant received international approval with US, Japan, and domestic backing — a genuinely rare non-China source of a chip-relevant critical mineral, and a durable capital allocation story worth watching.
  • The South32 acquisition adds real scale: Umbrella Implementation Deed to acquire South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum smelter interests in Australia consolidates a key upstream position — dilutive short-term, but the mix change is what unlocks the second act of the equity story.

July 16 earnings — two days out — is the near-term trigger: a beat on alumina pricing with gallium-plant capex guidance and clean South32 integration commentary would push shares back above the 200-day toward the $58 area, while a soft print combined with a heavier-than-expected South32 dilution number would let the -9% YTD drawdown extend to the $42-45 zone.

What to watch: July 16 earnings: alumina realized price, gallium-plant capex guidance, and South32 integration/dilution color. A heavier-than-expected dilution number extends the drawdown to $42-45.

On the calendar: 2026-07-16 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-01

Alcoa CFO Molly Beerman says current aluminum prices are expected to generate substantial free cash flow, absolutely generating cash at current pricing. But the stock is mired in a steep selloff with multiple gap downs, approaching the 200-day MA at oversold levels awaiting a bounce. Directional views are split between fundamentals and technicals.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Mines and refines bauxite into alumina and aluminum; upstream metals producer with exposure to construction, packaging, and EV battery demand.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aluminum sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AA.

Aluminum · Basic Materials

No material change from last week — AA as the primary US aluminum producer benefits from both commodity price uplift and domestic content policy advantages.

What this means for $AA

Direct beneficiary — Mines and refines bauxite into alumina and aluminum; upstream metals producer with exposure to construction, packaging, and EV battery demand; primary revenue lines track directly to the US tariff protection and commodity price uplift benefiting domestic producers.

Top industry ETF

$XMESPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF
-1.9%YTD
+42.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
18.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
6.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
16.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
12.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 16, 2026$1.40$1.53-8.5%
Q4 2025Jan 22, 2026$1.26$0.93+36.1%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$-0.02$-0.14+85.8%
Q2 2025Jul 16, 2025$0.39$0.32+21.0%
Next earningsThu, Jul 16·consensus EPS $2.30

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.2B-2.5%21.3%17.9%$1.61$-298.0M
Q4 FY25$3.4B-13.3%17.3%3.0%$0.87$162.0M
Q3 FY25$3.0B+5.8%4.7%1.7%$0.90$66.0M
Q2 FY25$3.0B+6.6%7.1%3.9%$0.63$357.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$14.8B$14.6B – $14.9B$6.94$6.06 – $7.449
FY27$15.3B$14.0B – $16.3B$6.95$4.87 – $9.3310
FY28$14.9B$14.9B – $14.9B$7.63$3.79 – $10.3310
FY29$14.9B$14.2B – $15.8B$8.15$7.70 – $8.835
FY30$15.0B$14.3B – $15.9B$0.00$0.00 – $0.005

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.37%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-22.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-11.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 262.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.635-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 33 other (23 awards · 10 inkinds) in window

See when $AA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJul 28-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Alcoa Corporation (AA) entered into an Umbrella Implementation Deed on June 30, 2026 to acquire South32 Limited's interests in bauxite mine, alumina refinery, and aluminum smelter operations. The filing simultaneously satisfies Rule 425 written communication requirements for the proposed transaction. Financial terms and closing timeline are not disclosed in the excerpt. This is a transformative upstream deal extending Alcoa's control across the aluminum supply chain from ore to smelted metal.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 18-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Alcoa Corporation (AA) disclosed via Reg FD (Item 7.01) on June 30, 2026, that it entered into an Umbrella Implementation Deed to acquire South32 Limited's interests in bauxite mining, alumina refinery, and aluminum smelter operations. An investor presentation (Exhibit 99.2) with transaction details was furnished alongside a Rule 425 written communication press release. Financial terms of the consideration were not specified in the available excerpt. This is a potentially transformative upstream acquisition that would meaningfully expand Alcoa's integrated aluminum supply chain.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 123
AI summary

Brian Galovich, newly appointed director of Alcoa Corp (AA), filed an initial Form 3 disclosing beneficial ownership as of May 6, 2026. Table I indicates no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine Section 16(a) initial ownership disclosure for a new Alcoa director; non-material.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 118-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

At Alcoa Corporation's (AA) May 6, 2026 Annual Meeting, stockholders approved the Amended and Restated Stock and Incentive Compensation Plan, increasing authorized shares from 30,000,000 to 38,000,000 and extending the plan term to May 6, 2036. Key amendments include a new cash incentive section, minimum one-year vesting requirements, and elimination of obsolete Section 162(m) provisions. The 8M additional share authorization represents a ~27% expansion. This is a routine annual meeting governance action; the plan refresh is mildly dilutive but standard for maintaining long-term incentive capacity.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 48-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Alcoa Corporation (AA) and its subsidiary Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V. entered into Amendment No. 3 to their Revolving Credit Agreement on May 4, 2026, extending the revolving facility maturity to June 27, 2028 and removing the SOFR credit spread adjustment, sustainability rate adjustments, and sustainability commitment fee adjustments. Participating lenders received a 0.05% consent fee on their commitment amounts; JPMorgan Chase serves as administrative agent. The original revolving agreement dates to September 2016 and has been amended and restated multiple times. This is a routine liquidity management action extending near-term maturity and simplifying the facility's rate structure.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 153
AI summary

Emily M. Olson, EVP & Chief External Affairs Officer of Alcoa Corp (AA), filed an initial Form 3 as of April 6, 2026. Table I/II data is cut off before share counts are shown. Routine Section 16(a) initial ownership disclosure for a newly reportable officer; non-material.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsJan 303/A
+ 23 other (6 425s · 5 proxys · 3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Arctic Fox Announces Name Changeaccessnewswire.com·1d agoAlcoa greenlights Australia gallium plant with US, Japan and domestic backingreuters.com·1d agoAlcoa Receives International Approval for Gallium Production Project in Australiawsj.com·1d agoAustralia, Japan, the United States and Alcoa Announce Final Investment Decision for Gallium Project in Western Australiabusinesswire.com·1d agoAlcoa Gears Up to Post Q2 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?zacks.com·2d ago
Voices on X · top 2 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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